FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Trend following · Updated 2026-09-10

Only invest above the 200-day average

Works in few markets

Its ground: crypto, on daily, buying several assets in signal — it beats in 44 of 961 combinations.

Markets beaten
40 / 489
Vs. index
-3.3 pts/yr
Total return
×11
Sharpe
0.33
Max drawdown
-30.0%
Trades
215
1×10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyBuy and hold

Detail on the index (S&P 500), which is the reference for the chart, the robustness suite and the neighbours.

What works and what does not in Only invest above the 200-day average?

The strategy Only invest above the 200-day average does not work consistently in any asset class; it does least badly on cryptocurrencies: 2 of 14 (14%). It works as a portfolio, not as a single stock: as a basket it beats in 3 of 3, asset by asset in 41 of 958, and it does worst on single stocks: it beats in 35 of 904. Of the 40 daily markets where it beats, 16 hold out of sample (40%); it has aged in 63 markets, no neighbouring parameter beats the index, it improves as the bar gets longer from 5-minute bars (0 of 118) to 4-hour bars (4 of 118), and its best daily market is NVDA (+29.5 points a year over the S&P 500 across 28 years, 123 trades) versus its worst, NCLH (-21.6 points a year).

  1. There is no asset class where Only invest above the 200-day average works consistently; it does least badly on cryptocurrencies: 2 of 14 (14%).
  2. It does worst on single stocks: it beats in 35 of 904.
  3. It works as a portfolio, not as a single stock: as a basket it beats in 3 of 3, asset by asset in 41 of 958.
  4. Of the 40 daily markets where it beats, 16 hold out of sample (40%).
  5. No neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.
  6. It improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 118; on 4-hour bars, in 4 of 118.
  7. It has aged: in 63 markets it beat in the first half of the history and stopped in the second; the reverse happens in only 31.
  8. Its best daily market is NVDA: +29.5 points a year over the S&P 500 across 28 years, 123 trades.
  9. Its worst daily market is NCLH: -21.6 points a year against the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

The promise

“Never buy a stock below its 200-day moving average. Stay in while price is above it; sell when it loses it.”

Exactly what we tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

Why

In every market

Indices and ETFs · 0 / 6 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 6

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (SPY)+1041.0%+3081.0%-2040.0%-3.3 pts215OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)+589.0%+1565.8%-976.8%-1.3 pts187OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)+151.6%+801.9%-650.3%-5.1 pts233OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)+199.6%+830.9%-631.4%-6.9 pts211OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)+366.0%+820.3%-454.3%-3.6 pts162OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-9.7%+131.2%-140.9%-11.7 pts264OVERFIT

Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions) · 1 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · max 10)+29254.9%+3081.0%+26173.9%+7.6 pts1728—

Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions) · 1 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · max 20)+79483.2%+3081.0%+76402.1%+11.2 pts3770—

Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions) · 1 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · max 25)+9707.2%+3081.0%+6626.2%+3.8 pts5135—

Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 31 / 470 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 58 / 216

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
AAPL+176733.6%+322813.1%-146079.5%before 1993265MARGINAL
AMGN+4112.6%+187272.6%-183160.0%before 1993441OVERFIT
AMZN+6433.2%+265196.1%-258762.9%+5.7 pts223MARGINAL
AXP+1116.1%+27029.4%-25913.3%before 1993456OVERFIT
BA+37576.6%+108724.7%-71148.1%before 1993484MARGINAL
CAT+8439.8%+172708.3%-164268.5%before 1993507OVERFIT
CRM+1181.8%+5992.9%-4811.1%+1.2 pts145OVERFIT
CSCO+89498.4%+222956.6%-133458.2%before 1993171MARGINAL
CVX+187.4%+68037.6%-67850.2%before 1993695OVERFIT
DIS+16598.5%+189847.3%-173248.8%before 1993487OVERFIT
GOOGL+1787.8%+13534.3%-11746.5%+3.0 pts135OVERFIT
GS+672.3%+2027.1%-1354.8%-0.7 pts181OVERFIT
HD+44408.1%+1985758.9%-1941350.8%before 1993322MARGINAL
HON+551.9%+21058.8%-20506.9%before 1993612OVERFIT
IBM+1546.9%+16203.8%-14656.9%before 1993482OVERFIT
JNJ+17042.8%+445196.6%-428153.8%before 1993505OVERFIT
JPM+547.1%+34522.5%-33975.4%before 1993407OVERFIT
KO+12944.6%+199349.6%-186405.0%before 1993481OVERFIT
MCD+3246.9%+236707.0%-233460.0%before 1993504MARGINAL
MMM+1162.3%+31160.0%-29997.7%before 1993553OVERFIT
MRK+31922.2%+233375.1%-201452.9%before 1993455MARGINAL
MSFT+31304.8%+859506.0%-828201.1%before 1993307MARGINAL
NKE+4836.5%+32003.7%-27167.2%before 1993328MARGINAL
NVDA+749911.9%+587720.8%+162191.1%+29.5 pts123OVERFIT
PG+1461.9%+59706.6%-58244.7%before 1993538OVERFIT
SHW+1158.1%+231766.6%-230608.4%before 1993469MARGINAL
TRV+246.6%+12287.7%-12041.1%before 1993413OVERFIT
UNH+8248.5%+353381.4%-345132.9%before 1993303OVERFIT
V+429.7%+2961.1%-2531.4%-2.7 pts163INCONCLUSIVE
WMT+17911.5%+915365.3%-897453.9%before 1993440OVERFIT
ABNBn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+1067.6%+147731.1%-146663.5%before 1993319OVERFIT
ADI+1128.7%+81534.0%-80405.4%before 1993391OVERFIT
ADP+2124.1%+74205.9%-72081.8%before 1993353OVERFIT
ADSK+233.2%+58084.6%-57851.3%before 1993361OVERFIT
AEP+1205.1%+13797.6%-12592.5%before 1993578OVERFIT
ALABn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+242.9%+3338.4%-3095.5%-5.3 pts174OVERFIT
AMAT+19698.0%+664974.8%-645276.8%before 1993353OVERFIT
AMD+19093.2%+14863.3%+4230.0%before 1993303OVERFIT
APPn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMn/a · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+20310.0%+96277.5%-75967.4%+7.4 pts219MARGINAL
AVGO+1934.7%+32512.1%-30577.4%+4.7 pts161INCONCLUSIVE
AXON+25080.0%+123065.2%-97985.3%+15.1 pts159MARGINAL
BKNG+797.1%+922.2%-125.1%-0.2 pts197OVERFIT
BKR-48.0%+933.9%-981.9%before 1993393OVERFIT
CCEP+857.9%+7081.8%-6223.9%before 1993315OVERFIT
CDNS+3002.2%+16839.0%-13836.8%before 1993293MARGINAL
CEGn/a · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA+1951.9%+47049.9%-45098.0%before 1993359MARGINAL
COST+654.1%+12800.7%-12146.6%before 1993380OVERFIT
CPRT+1938.4%+21554.9%-19616.5%-1.2 pts286OVERFIT
CRWDn/a · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX+1419.1%+40426.1%-39007.0%before 1993419OVERFIT
CTAS+3944.3%+123411.3%-119467.0%before 1993339MARGINAL
DASHn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGn/a · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM+1046.2%+3002.6%-1956.3%+0.9 pts131OVERFIT
EAn/a · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC+5471.7%+17730.6%-12258.8%before 1993392MARGINAL
FANG+272.2%+1406.8%-1134.6%-4.9 pts99INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+954.7%+262350.7%-261396.0%before 1993343MARGINAL
FER+177.8%+593.7%-415.9%-7.2 pts50INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT+582.0%+10184.6%-9602.5%-2.1 pts125INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCn/a · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+243.1%+33594.8%-33351.7%before 1993359MARGINAL
HONAn/a · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+4143.8%+58789.5%-54645.7%before 1993266MARGINAL
INTC+8310.6%+49216.9%-40906.3%before 1993301OVERFIT
INTU+601.0%+15430.2%-14829.2%-4.8 pts264MARGINAL
ISRG+2245.8%+18484.9%-16239.1%+4.4 pts204MARGINAL
KDP+221.0%+1090.2%-869.2%-5.2 pts193INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-23.0%-42.2%+19.2%-16.6 pts79INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC+33145.2%+289399.1%-256254.0%before 1993297MARGINAL
LIN+500.1%+10777.0%-10276.9%before 1993285OVERFIT
LITE+687.8%+5280.9%-4593.1%+6.2 pts107INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX+31794.8%+159814.6%-128019.8%before 1993259MARGINAL
MAR+1057.8%+2539.5%-1481.6%+0.1 pts197MARGINAL
MCHP+1.8%+41961.5%-41959.8%-10.8 pts300OVERFIT
MDLZ-45.2%+461.4%-506.6%-11.8 pts303OVERFIT
MELI+1522.2%+6911.0%-5388.9%+4.6 pts131INCONCLUSIVE
META+1169.9%+1410.2%-240.4%+4.3 pts70INCONCLUSIVE
MNST+4217.2%+61968.9%-57751.7%before 1993328OVERFIT
MPWR+2946.2%+15002.1%-12055.9%+6.0 pts145OVERFIT
MRVL+1720.1%+1645.0%+75.0%+3.3 pts179OVERFIT
MSTR+10839.1%+1158.6%+9680.5%+9.1 pts198OVERFIT
MU+72867.8%+70877.8%+1990.0%before 1993295MARGINAL
NFLX+114857.6%+67643.2%+47214.4%+23.4 pts106GENERALIZED
NXPI+86.7%+1721.2%-1634.4%-10.7 pts128INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL+870.3%+36444.7%-35574.4%before 1993325OVERFIT
ORLY+3359.3%+55255.7%-51896.5%+0.3 pts254MARGINAL
PANW+1239.9%+4215.4%-2975.5%+5.3 pts85INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+518.2%+57106.4%-56588.2%before 1993423OVERFIT
PDDn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP+1173.2%+37760.7%-36587.6%before 1993424MARGINAL
PLTRn/a · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL+68.3%+44.7%+23.5%-9.5 pts83INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM+383.1%+50430.1%-50047.1%before 1993322OVERFIT
REGN-9.2%+3718.3%-3727.5%before 1993291OVERFIT
ROP+3764.0%+26003.6%-22239.6%before 1993273MARGINAL
ROST+19539.8%+55801.1%-36261.3%before 1993259MARGINAL
SBUX+941.9%+43019.5%-42077.7%before 1993285OVERFIT
SHOP+2445.5%+8568.8%-6123.3%+19.4 pts65INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKn/a · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS+40.8%+5482.1%-5441.3%before 1993312OVERFIT
STX+5092.6%+15614.6%-10522.0%+6.7 pts145OVERFIT
TER+12072.3%+31309.8%-19237.5%before 1993383MARGINAL
TMUS+369.6%+318.0%+51.6%-2.6 pts124INCONCLUSIVE
TRI+213.0%+578.4%-365.4%-5.8 pts199OVERFIT
TSLA+1171.3%+23002.8%-21831.4%+1.9 pts168INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO-12.2%+5509.7%-5521.9%-10.5 pts285OVERFIT
TXN+739.1%+38040.6%-37301.5%before 1993475OVERFIT
VRTX+75.3%+12000.4%-11925.1%before 1993345OVERFIT
WBD+105.3%+302.2%-196.9%-7.6 pts181OVERFIT
WDAY-13.1%+305.5%-318.7%-15.8 pts135INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+16129.5%+66202.2%-50072.8%before 1993351OVERFIT
XEL+888.4%+7388.9%-6500.5%before 1993500OVERFIT
A+236.9%+486.3%-249.4%-3.7 pts199OVERFIT
ABBV+85.7%+1156.0%-1070.3%-10.2 pts131INCONCLUSIVE
ABT+2445.5%+62056.2%-59610.7%before 1993349OVERFIT
ACGL+708.9%+4268.0%-3559.2%-3.5 pts259GENERALIZED
ACN+220.1%+1726.5%-1506.4%-4.8 pts214OVERFIT
ADM+229.6%+9265.6%-9036.0%before 1993431OVERFIT
AEE+122.1%+813.9%-691.8%-6.5 pts270OVERFIT
AES+1374.5%+647.5%+727.1%before 1993299OVERFIT
AFL+3405.0%+205848.4%-202443.4%before 1993437OVERFIT
AIG+878.8%+468.3%+410.5%before 1993450OVERFIT
AIZ+637.0%+1585.5%-948.5%-1.6 pts147OVERFIT
AJG+2257.6%+41899.5%-39641.9%before 1993309OVERFIT
AKAM+2403.8%-25.2%+2429.0%+4.3 pts165OVERFIT
ALB+909.5%+3091.3%-2181.9%-3.5 pts252MARGINAL
ALGN+4340.5%+846.9%+3493.6%+7.1 pts148OVERFIT
ALL+1490.3%+3674.2%-2184.0%-2.1 pts237OVERFIT
ALLE+7.8%+265.9%-258.1%-13.4 pts113INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR-42.7%+100.6%-143.3%-18.8 pts119INCONCLUSIVE
AME+936.6%+25325.0%-24388.4%before 1993341OVERFIT
AMP+456.6%+2154.1%-1697.5%-2.6 pts173MARGINAL
AMT+661.8%+1310.2%-648.4%-1.7 pts230OVERFIT
ANET+781.3%+5592.8%-4811.5%+5.8 pts77INCONCLUSIVE
AON+437.3%+29815.0%-29377.7%before 1993397OVERFIT
AOS+3899.9%+13924.9%-10025.0%before 1993310OVERFIT
APA-28.5%+2417.2%-2445.8%before 1993441OVERFIT
APD+239.2%+20722.2%-20483.0%before 1993431OVERFIT
APH+29369.7%+146951.6%-117581.9%before 1993211GENERALIZED
APO+478.1%+1845.9%-1367.8%-1.9 pts123INCONCLUSIVE
APTV+152.6%+174.0%-21.4%-8.7 pts112INCONCLUSIVE
ARE+103.6%+624.3%-520.7%-7.2 pts273OVERFIT
ARES+404.5%+1191.9%-787.3%+0.1 pts89INCONCLUSIVE
ATO+214.7%+13696.4%-13481.6%before 1993420OVERFIT
AVB+49.8%+42.3%+7.5%-11.1 pts47INCONCLUSIVE
AVY-30.5%+8544.4%-8574.8%before 1993559OVERFIT
AWK+164.6%+950.9%-786.3%-6.4 pts139INCONCLUSIVE
AZO+376.1%+40631.8%-40255.7%before 1993292OVERFIT
BAC+628.6%+4053.1%-3424.5%before 1993453OVERFIT
BALL+1825.8%+49568.6%-47742.7%before 1993471MARGINAL
BAX+320.8%+1778.4%-1457.6%before 1993367MARGINAL
BBY+3038.2%+89506.6%-86468.4%before 1993323OVERFIT
BDX+356.1%+21440.4%-21084.2%before 1993489OVERFIT
BEN+22411.4%+130378.8%-107967.4%before 1993283MARGINAL
BF-B+253.4%+14873.5%-14620.1%before 1993437OVERFIT
BG+110.1%+1105.5%-995.4%-6.5 pts252OVERFIT
BIIB+1021.1%+6832.8%-5811.7%before 1993263OVERFIT
BLDR+44.0%+393.7%-349.8%-9.4 pts214OVERFIT
BLK+754.4%+13724.5%-12970.1%-0.4 pts209OVERFIT
BMY+3361.0%+23662.6%-20301.6%before 1993415OVERFIT
BNY+1270.5%+32230.3%-30959.9%before 1993411OVERFIT
BR+662.1%+1234.2%-572.1%+0.0 pts101INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B+269.8%+2072.5%-1802.8%-6.0 pts245OVERFIT
BRO+8725.2%+76212.8%-67487.5%before 1993361MARGINAL
BSX+110.8%+1028.2%-917.4%before 1993304OVERFIT
BX+1181.2%+1023.3%+157.9%+3.4 pts127INCONCLUSIVE
BXP+98.2%+888.9%-790.7%-7.1 pts263OVERFIT
C+1753.7%+1897.9%-144.2%before 1993373OVERFIT
CAH+898.8%+39284.8%-38385.9%before 1993403OVERFIT
CARRn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+2803.6%+80461.2%-77657.7%before 1993377MARGINAL
CB+841.1%+6587.6%-5746.5%-3.9 pts239OVERFIT
CBOE+210.7%+1060.1%-849.3%-7.4 pts135INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE+899.9%+2283.8%-1383.9%-0.0 pts152OVERFIT
CCI+375.4%+899.9%-524.5%-3.3 pts284OVERFIT
CCL+10.0%+1154.4%-1144.3%before 1993336OVERFIT
CDW+263.0%+858.2%-595.1%-4.2 pts67INCONCLUSIVE
CF+2210.7%+5815.9%-3605.2%+5.1 pts171OVERFIT
CFG+263.0%+349.9%-86.9%-2.4 pts63INCONCLUSIVE
CHD+2839.6%+93736.5%-90896.9%before 1993367MARGINAL
CHRW+10.3%+4307.6%-4297.3%-9.0 pts326OVERFIT
CHTR+258.2%+335.5%-77.4%-6.2 pts116INCONCLUSIVE
CI+440.1%+12980.8%-12540.7%before 1993389OVERFIT
CIEN+91.6%+195.6%-104.0%-7.6 pts259OVERFIT
CINF+3056.3%+41545.9%-38489.6%before 1993431OVERFIT
CL+0.6%+20919.0%-20918.4%before 1993555OVERFIT
CLX+796.0%+6184.2%-5388.2%before 1993415OVERFIT
CME+1575.5%+6884.2%-5308.7%+1.3 pts141MARGINAL
CMG+3351.4%+4221.6%-870.1%+7.7 pts107OVERFIT
CMI+16958.9%+28968.2%-12009.3%before 1993338MARGINAL
CMS+2116.4%+630.8%+1485.6%before 1993408OVERFIT
CNC+55.4%+4388.8%-4333.4%-8.3 pts245OVERFIT
CNP+1022.3%+13998.0%-12975.7%before 1993598OVERFIT
COF+377.4%+5724.6%-5347.1%-6.1 pts289OVERFIT
COHR+1514.0%+68288.9%-66774.9%before 1993377MARGINAL
COINn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO+820.1%+879.8%-59.7%before 1993320OVERFIT
COP+223.4%+13561.7%-13338.3%before 1993479OVERFIT
COR+1299.1%+17062.1%-15763.0%-2.2 pts246OVERFIT
CPAY+219.4%+1383.7%-1164.3%-6.6 pts99INCONCLUSIVE
CPT+577.8%+2453.9%-1876.2%-5.0 pts258OVERFIT
CRH+418.1%+7617.9%-7199.7%before 1993290OVERFIT
CRL+58.0%+1210.2%-1152.2%-6.7 pts229OVERFIT
CSGP+29.5%+3390.6%-3361.1%-7.9 pts258OVERFIT
CTSH+497.9%+35498.3%-35000.4%-2.4 pts223OVERFIT
CTVAn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS+2228.9%+15658.6%-13429.8%before 1993395MARGINAL
D+986.9%+17762.4%-16775.5%before 1993389OVERFIT
DAL-0.4%+339.1%-339.5%-10.8 pts187INCONCLUSIVE
DD+176.1%+10113.6%-9937.6%before 1993547OVERFIT
DE+1251.4%+101089.1%-99837.7%before 1993431OVERFIT
DECK+6627.3%+7024.7%-397.4%+2.9 pts288MARGINAL
DELL+796.0%+4059.8%-3263.7%+9.3 pts59INCONCLUSIVE
DG+167.0%+550.3%-383.3%-8.2 pts121INCONCLUSIVE
DGX+860.2%+9626.0%-8765.8%-2.2 pts189MARGINAL
DHI+499.1%+13111.0%-12612.0%before 1993282OVERFIT
DHR+12026.3%+483557.2%-471530.9%before 1993343MARGINAL
DLR+136.1%+3540.7%-3404.6%-7.2 pts185OVERFIT
DLTR+1280.1%+10731.5%-9451.4%-2.4 pts217OVERFIT
DOC+390.4%+6136.8%-5746.5%before 1993341OVERFIT
DOV+1087.2%+29264.8%-28177.6%before 1993366MARGINAL
DOWn/a · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ+2626.5%+5638.6%-3012.1%+5.0 pts114MARGINAL
DRI+112.6%+6998.7%-6886.1%-8.4 pts301OVERFIT
DTE+3521.5%+35264.3%-31742.8%before 1993540OVERFIT
DUK+1170.4%+16239.0%-15068.6%before 1993398MARGINAL
DVA+1272.8%+4219.3%-2946.5%-1.7 pts205GENERALIZED
DVN+2105.3%+1411.9%+693.4%before 1993339OVERFIT
EBAY+84.7%+14035.1%-13950.4%-7.0 pts261OVERFIT
ECHO+261.0%+227.3%+33.7%-4.2 pts146INCONCLUSIVE
ECL+110.5%+20174.1%-20063.6%before 1993461OVERFIT
ED+5869.1%+45081.6%-39212.5%before 1993561OVERFIT
EFX+2097.1%+77234.4%-75137.3%before 1993369MARGINAL
EG+103.3%+2975.7%-2872.5%-8.3 pts291OVERFIT
EIX+1677.9%+14610.5%-12932.6%before 1993437OVERFIT
EL+202.5%+1551.3%-1348.8%-6.8 pts273OVERFIT
ELV+340.5%+2326.9%-1986.4%-4.1 pts199OVERFIT
EME+2781.3%+59203.5%-56422.1%+0.0 pts261OVERFIT
EMR+246.5%+19839.1%-19592.6%before 1993569OVERFIT
EOG+413.0%+9279.7%-8866.7%before 1993337OVERFIT
EQIX+1027.9%+240.5%+787.4%+1.3 pts193OVERFIT
EQR+34.7%+44.2%-9.5%-12.2 pts65INCONCLUSIVE
EQT+3059.0%+19557.1%-16498.2%before 1993370OVERFIT
ERIE+88.7%+3362.8%-3274.1%-8.5 pts297OVERFIT
ES+297.1%+2960.1%-2663.0%before 1993477OVERFIT
ESS+1296.8%+5274.8%-3978.1%-2.5 pts245OVERFIT
ETN+5881.1%+116541.5%-110660.4%before 1993405MARGINAL
ETR+1343.1%+19797.9%-18454.8%before 1993463OVERFIT
EVRG+1202.2%+5086.7%-3884.5%before 1993429MARGINAL
EW+410.0%+6500.0%-6090.0%-1.8 pts195OVERFIT
EXEn/a · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD+2512.5%+148324.6%-145812.1%before 1993391OVERFIT
EXPE+51.3%+916.1%-864.9%-9.1 pts155OVERFIT
EXR+1432.6%+2698.9%-1266.3%+1.9 pts135OVERFIT
F+661.0%+6752.4%-6091.4%before 1993543OVERFIT
FCX+250.1%+1061.6%-811.5%-6.6 pts281OVERFIT
FDS+309.4%+9088.9%-8779.6%-5.5 pts259OVERFIT
FDX+268.6%+53776.9%-53508.3%before 1993463OVERFIT
FDXFn/a · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE+51.5%+563.0%-511.5%-8.0 pts264OVERFIT
FFIV+1208.5%+5374.0%-4165.5%+1.4 pts169OVERFIT
FICO+1217.5%+94747.8%-93530.3%before 1993342OVERFIT
FIS+416.2%+363.8%+52.4%-2.8 pts152OVERFIT
FITB+8508.0%+28280.0%-19772.0%before 1993337OVERFIT
FIX+1777.7%+11966.2%-10188.5%+1.1 pts203OVERFIT
FLEX+2483.9%+7898.6%-5414.7%-0.4 pts275OVERFIT
FOXn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT+1494.8%+24360.2%-22865.5%before 1993457OVERFIT
FSLR+319.5%+716.1%-396.6%-3.5 pts126OVERFIT
FTV-8.5%+100.1%-108.7%-16.4 pts95INCONCLUSIVE
GD+26312.0%+221689.9%-195377.9%before 1993467MARGINAL
GDDY-42.2%+389.4%-431.6%-18.7 pts116INCONCLUSIVE
GE+21794.0%+54356.2%-32562.2%before 1993473OVERFIT
GEN+493.1%+12085.6%-11592.4%before 1993271MARGINAL
GEVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS+1098.1%+15015.5%-13917.5%before 1993343OVERFIT
GL+518.1%+12680.6%-12162.4%before 1993351MARGINAL
GLW+43724.2%+19301.2%+24423.0%before 1993309MARGINAL
GM-7.5%+240.1%-247.6%-15.0 pts139INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC+929.5%+2091.1%-1161.6%+0.6 pts112INCONCLUSIVE
GPC+29.2%+12785.5%-12756.3%before 1993495OVERFIT
GPN+464.1%+2567.9%-2103.8%-2.0 pts201OVERFIT
GRMN+5614.0%+5377.3%+236.7%+8.1 pts115MARGINAL
GWW+536.2%+55300.2%-54763.9%before 1993485OVERFIT
HAL+2908.1%+2860.8%+47.4%before 1993377OVERFIT
HAS+5716.9%+201529.8%-195812.9%before 1993349OVERFIT
HBAN+252.0%+3799.5%-3547.5%before 1993417OVERFIT
HCA+779.0%+1699.7%-920.8%+1.0 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
HIG+773.0%+951.1%-178.1%-3.1 pts247GENERALIZED
HII+530.6%+883.6%-353.1%-1.5 pts98INCONCLUSIVE
HLT+424.7%+659.1%-234.5%-0.1 pts45INCONCLUSIVE
HOODn/a · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+60.5%+625.0%-564.6%-10.4 pts111INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ+4887.6%+77945.5%-73058.0%before 1993539OVERFIT
HRL+261.3%+19046.1%-18784.8%before 1993444OVERFIT
HSIC+99.8%+1913.1%-1813.3%-8.3 pts271OVERFIT
HST+1660.3%+12843.9%-11183.5%before 1993367OVERFIT
HSY+1206.5%+53964.6%-52758.0%before 1993388MARGINAL
HUBB+560.0%+3853.5%-3293.5%-4.9 pts222OVERFIT
HUM+666.0%+20168.9%-19502.9%before 1993329MARGINAL
HWMn/a · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR+500.7%+1526.1%-1025.4%-1.0 pts139INCONCLUSIVE
ICE+438.3%+2307.9%-1869.6%-2.8 pts169OVERFIT
IEX+2707.2%+12761.2%-10054.0%before 1993241MARGINAL
IFF-24.7%+4754.9%-4779.7%before 1993503OVERFIT
INCY+4052.7%+6471.7%-2419.0%+1.1 pts239OVERFIT
INVHn/a · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP-60.2%+4590.1%-4650.4%before 1993705OVERFIT
IQV+109.1%+520.3%-411.2%-8.6 pts99INCONCLUSIVE
IRn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+128.1%+9911.6%-9783.4%-7.6 pts271OVERFIT
IT+1089.3%+6431.0%-5341.7%-3.0 pts273MARGINAL
ITW+1496.4%+51254.1%-49757.6%before 1993453OVERFIT
IVZ+590.1%+1093.8%-503.7%-4.2 pts253OVERFIT
J+430.9%+33544.7%-33113.8%before 1993353OVERFIT
JBHT+762.7%+24926.6%-24163.9%before 1993351MARGINAL
JBL+2209.8%+41217.7%-39007.9%-1.0 pts295OVERFIT
JCI+1217.5%+4376.5%-3159.0%before 1993283MARGINAL
JKHY+4062.3%+71288.2%-67225.9%before 1993331OVERFIT
KEY+2082.2%+1405.6%+676.6%before 1993261OVERFIT
KEYS+293.1%+1042.3%-749.2%-2.1 pts95INCONCLUSIVE
KIM+869.9%+3036.5%-2166.6%before 1993233OVERFIT
KKR+346.8%+1784.9%-1438.1%-5.1 pts101INCONCLUSIVE
KMB+175.9%+16039.9%-15864.0%before 1993469OVERFIT
KMI+109.6%+117.5%-7.9%-9.0 pts113INCONCLUSIVE
KR+6975.7%+182706.1%-175730.4%before 1993546OVERFIT
KVUEn/a · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+3474.0%+22398.8%-18924.8%before 1993349OVERFIT
LDOS+17.1%+530.2%-513.2%-10.3 pts200OVERFIT
LEN+2941.2%+29032.9%-26091.8%before 1993346MARGINAL
LH+406.2%+1408.2%-1002.1%before 1993301OVERFIT
LHX+333.4%+8519.5%-8186.2%before 1993378OVERFIT
LII+367.0%+3122.4%-2755.4%-2.6 pts206OVERFIT
LLY+4618.8%+129720.0%-125101.2%before 1993421OVERFIT
LMT+1285.2%+67444.7%-66159.4%before 1993563OVERFIT
LNT+555.2%+9408.5%-8853.3%before 1993520OVERFIT
LOW+1061.2%+77328.4%-76267.2%before 1993434OVERFIT
LULU+753.7%+759.0%-5.3%+0.8 pts142INCONCLUSIVE
LUV+1122.4%+24508.5%-23386.1%before 1993416MARGINAL
LVS+760.2%+50.3%+709.9%-0.5 pts138OVERFIT
LYB+121.5%+648.8%-527.3%-9.0 pts113INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+182.2%+1558.0%-1375.7%-6.0 pts159OVERFIT
MA+1382.2%+14066.9%-12684.8%+3.0 pts123OVERFIT
MAA+558.6%+3525.2%-2966.6%-4.9 pts236OVERFIT
MAS+466.1%+7423.1%-6957.0%before 1993383OVERFIT
MCK+2230.6%+6946.5%-4715.9%-0.7 pts207OVERFIT
MCO+1115.8%+7753.9%-6638.1%-2.9 pts227OVERFIT
MDT+1777.1%+51421.0%-49643.8%before 1993421OVERFIT
MET-30.7%+1176.9%-1207.6%-9.7 pts265OVERFIT
MGM+1151.3%+1501.4%-350.1%before 1993261OVERFIT
MKC+1026.1%+14401.8%-13375.8%before 1993408OVERFIT
MLM+233.2%+3089.6%-2856.3%-7.1 pts256OVERFIT
MO+71547.2%+2914781.4%-2843234.2%before 1993489MARGINAL
MOS+643.1%+268.9%+374.2%before 1993278OVERFIT
MPC+1505.5%+2972.8%-1467.2%+5.5 pts73INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAn/a · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+1112.8%+21192.9%-20080.0%before 1993445OVERFIT
MS+1043.8%+6159.1%-5115.4%-3.3 pts255OVERFIT
MSCI+240.1%+2406.7%-2166.7%-4.5 pts146INCONCLUSIVE
MSI+6353.5%+79243.2%-72889.7%before 1993505MARGINAL
MTB+5016.2%+105049.8%-100033.7%before 1993335OVERFIT
MTD+975.5%+9346.3%-8370.8%-0.9 pts213GENERALIZED
NCLH-62.0%-34.9%-27.1%-21.6 pts114INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ+761.0%+2371.2%-1610.2%-1.6 pts187OVERFIT
NDSN+4908.1%+37769.3%-32861.2%before 1993467OVERFIT
NEE+1113.7%+23772.9%-22659.2%before 1993476OVERFIT
NEM-59.3%+2099.8%-2159.1%before 1993413OVERFIT
NI+1978.3%+5234.9%-3256.6%before 1993414OVERFIT
NOC+3628.2%+23369.3%-19741.1%before 1993296OVERFIT
NOW+547.7%+2907.9%-2360.2%-0.8 pts115INCONCLUSIVE
NRG+765.8%+1442.6%-676.7%-1.1 pts170MARGINAL
NSC+513.2%+24520.7%-24007.4%before 1993377OVERFIT
NTAP+14567.3%+19659.8%-5092.4%+7.1 pts183MARGINAL
NTRS+4897.6%+53074.8%-48177.3%before 1993287OVERFIT
NUE+1918.8%+70209.1%-68290.3%before 1993367OVERFIT
NVR+10859.7%+61512.0%-50652.3%+4.5 pts212OVERFIT
NWS+32.5%+152.4%-119.9%-12.2 pts127INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA+54.1%+122.2%-68.2%-11.0 pts107INCONCLUSIVE
O+171.0%+5366.4%-5195.4%-7.9 pts295OVERFIT
OKE+4850.2%+19101.6%-14251.4%before 1993345OVERFIT
OMC+824.5%+15677.5%-14853.0%before 1993377OVERFIT
ON+206.5%+208.7%-2.2%-4.1 pts206OVERFIT
ORCL+13812.0%+296729.4%-282917.4%before 1993328MARGINAL
OTISn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY+374.6%+3580.0%-3205.3%before 1993405OVERFIT
PCG+798.9%+1389.7%-590.8%before 1993382OVERFIT
PEG+552.1%+18884.4%-18332.3%before 1993466MARGINAL
PFE+722.2%+20062.7%-19340.5%before 1993503OVERFIT
PFG+68.1%+920.1%-852.0%-8.0 pts221OVERFIT
PGR+34692.5%+819581.9%-784889.5%before 1993293GENERALIZED
PH+1814.1%+41129.4%-39315.3%before 1993377OVERFIT
PHM+8630.8%+95847.7%-87216.9%before 1993351MARGINAL
PLD+509.2%+1782.5%-1273.4%-2.8 pts219MARGINAL
PM+160.5%+785.7%-625.2%-6.9 pts177INCONCLUSIVE
PNC+2892.7%+37937.9%-35045.1%before 1993415OVERFIT
PNR+747.6%+11510.8%-10763.2%before 1993440OVERFIT
PNW+680.7%+2247.6%-1566.8%before 1993425MARGINAL
PODD+558.6%+831.5%-272.9%-0.5 pts112INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+1816.1%+21327.4%-19511.3%before 1993359OVERFIT
PPL+1000.3%+7311.8%-6311.5%before 1993412MARGINAL
PRU+52.3%+767.8%-715.5%-8.3 pts239OVERFIT
PSA+2768.9%+13958.7%-11189.8%before 1993323OVERFIT
PSKY-5.7%-34.8%+29.1%-11.4 pts176OVERFIT
PSX+73.0%+1071.7%-998.6%-10.7 pts147INCONCLUSIVE
PTC+487.2%+8443.5%-7956.3%before 1993291OVERFIT
PWR+2653.8%+8155.1%-5501.3%+3.2 pts181OVERFIT
Qn/a · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL+2166.2%+4611.6%-2445.4%-1.1 pts242MARGINAL
REG+401.2%+2046.5%-1645.3%-5.8 pts307OVERFIT
RF+1704.4%+7230.0%-5525.6%before 1993387MARGINAL
RJF+2130.8%+52691.1%-50560.3%before 1993375OVERFIT
RL+117.6%+1376.9%-1259.4%-6.8 pts218OVERFIT
RMD+1616.8%+43254.4%-41637.5%-1.3 pts251GENERALIZED
ROK+2997.5%+57325.7%-54328.2%before 1993347OVERFIT
ROL+11.1%+36503.9%-36492.8%before 1993496OVERFIT
RSG+297.9%+1977.7%-1679.8%-3.8 pts211OVERFIT
RTX+18255.2%+231131.9%-212876.6%before 1993427OVERFIT
RVTY+3178.6%+25547.2%-22368.6%before 1993383OVERFIT
SBAC+5469.1%+2259.6%+3209.4%+7.4 pts180OVERFIT
SCHW+3295.0%+45501.9%-42206.8%before 1993301OVERFIT
SJM-65.1%+1119.0%-1184.1%-14.3 pts365OVERFIT
SLB+188.5%+1125.4%-937.0%before 1993405OVERFIT
SMCI+211.3%+4155.7%-3944.4%-5.1 pts145INCONCLUSIVE
SNA+180.2%+12522.0%-12341.8%before 1993483OVERFIT
SO+1777.4%+32617.4%-30840.0%before 1993356OVERFIT
SOLVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+982.2%+5330.6%-4348.4%-3.3 pts273OVERFIT
SPGI+2872.3%+140503.3%-137631.0%before 1993435OVERFIT
SRE+51.2%+1463.0%-1411.8%-7.4 pts304OVERFIT
STE-23.5%+15491.4%-15514.9%before 1993376OVERFIT
STLD+964.6%+7831.8%-6867.2%-1.7 pts251OVERFIT
STT+18420.5%+199686.1%-181265.6%before 1993297MARGINAL
STZ+713.4%+10007.0%-9293.6%before 1993276MARGINAL
SW+240.2%+775.0%-534.8%-5.1 pts115INCONCLUSIVE
SWK+44.0%+5887.9%-5844.0%before 1993509OVERFIT
SWKS+58.5%+1317.3%-1258.7%before 1993355OVERFIT
SYF+13.4%+325.2%-311.8%-12.9 pts91INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+4432.4%+430371.4%-425939.0%before 1993358MARGINAL
SYY+650.6%+115885.9%-115235.3%before 1993547OVERFIT
T+341.2%+10219.8%-9878.6%before 1993393MARGINAL
TAP-96.8%+518.8%-615.6%before 1993480OVERFIT
TDG+1157.7%+13285.3%-12127.6%+2.1 pts144OVERFIT
TDY+66.8%+7164.6%-7097.7%-6.5 pts255OVERFIT
TECH+6201.2%+79246.8%-73045.6%before 1993371OVERFIT
TEL+427.9%+671.1%-243.2%-1.7 pts126INCONCLUSIVE
TFC+560.0%+10226.4%-9666.4%before 1993423OVERFIT
TGT+5330.6%+90566.5%-85235.9%before 1993435MARGINAL
TJX+3153.8%+36154.4%-33000.6%before 1993332OVERFIT
TKO+489.1%+1638.9%-1149.7%-2.0 pts214OVERFIT
TMO+2530.1%+36784.3%-34254.2%before 1993357MARGINAL
TPL+17256.0%+75277.1%-58021.1%before 1993306MARGINAL
TPR+1439.1%+7766.6%-6327.5%+2.5 pts164OVERFIT
TRGP+2198.3%+2202.9%-4.6%+7.8 pts93INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB+1034.5%+3366.4%-2331.9%before 1993278OVERFIT
TROW+238.5%+35932.6%-35694.2%before 1993375MARGINAL
TSCO+2688.7%+15199.0%-12510.4%-0.1 pts224OVERFIT
TSN-10.5%+4340.8%-4351.3%before 1993404OVERFIT
TT+3393.9%+49748.2%-46354.3%before 1993341OVERFIT
TTDn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+2271.8%+4901.2%-2629.4%before 1993376OVERFIT
TYL+7060.1%+43359.1%-36298.9%before 1993355OVERFIT
UAL+3.1%+240.6%-237.6%-11.0 pts183OVERFIT
UBERn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR+832.3%+14119.5%-13287.2%before 1993405OVERFIT
UHS+1010.6%+15293.2%-14282.6%before 1993302OVERFIT
ULTA+942.5%+1721.3%-778.8%+2.3 pts96INCONCLUSIVE
UNP+3356.1%+30311.4%-26955.3%before 1993355OVERFIT
UPS-46.9%+233.2%-280.1%-10.8 pts271OVERFIT
URI+771.2%+7088.3%-6317.1%-1.5 pts217OVERFIT
USB+759.8%+44799.0%-44039.2%before 1993455OVERFIT
VEEV+141.0%+668.8%-527.8%-7.1 pts117INCONCLUSIVE
VICIn/a · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO+11046.2%+23394.0%-12347.8%before 1993321MARGINAL
VLTOn/a · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+738.8%+48759.3%-48020.5%before 1993474MARGINAL
VRSK+232.4%+648.8%-416.3%-7.1 pts104INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN+3232.6%+5322.0%-2089.4%+3.8 pts199OVERFIT
VRTn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR+1917.7%+1496.8%+420.8%+1.1 pts191OVERFIT
VTRS-83.9%+1568.8%-1652.6%before 1993385OVERFIT
VZ+86.2%+4889.1%-4802.9%before 1993421OVERFIT
WAB+226.4%+4137.7%-3911.3%-6.9 pts249OVERFIT
WAT+673.3%+10865.4%-10192.1%-3.6 pts221OVERFIT
WEC+836.3%+23656.8%-22820.5%before 1993418OVERFIT
WELL+2568.5%+58774.1%-56205.7%before 1993341OVERFIT
WFC+469.7%+63452.2%-62982.6%before 1993489OVERFIT
WM+1006.9%+8471.2%-7464.4%before 1993294OVERFIT
WMB+7622.7%+11974.1%-4351.4%before 1993329OVERFIT
WSM+1601.8%+69865.8%-68264.0%before 1993365OVERFIT
WST+9023.9%+79208.6%-70184.7%before 1993269MARGINAL
WTW-39.0%+1181.6%-1220.7%-11.3 pts251OVERFIT
WY-57.1%+1781.4%-1838.4%before 1993588OVERFIT
WYNN+2072.3%+1217.6%+854.7%+2.4 pts130OVERFIT
XOM+10322.6%+183657.9%-173335.3%before 1993521MARGINAL
XYL+144.5%+455.0%-310.6%-9.0 pts118INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ+423.8%+527.5%-103.8%+2.0 pts57INCONCLUSIVE
YUM+147.3%+4282.5%-4135.2%-6.2 pts260OVERFIT
ZBH+14.7%+292.2%-277.4%-9.1 pts213OVERFIT
ZBRA+516.2%+8617.7%-8101.4%before 1993263OVERFIT
ZTS+217.7%+179.3%+38.4%-5.7 pts80INCONCLUSIVE

Forex · 4 / 8 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 8

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
EUR/USD+23.2%-3.1%+26.3%-10.1 pts135OVERFIT
GBP/USD-3.4%-21.2%+17.8%-11.2 pts171OVERFIT
USD/JPY+1.1%+40.2%-39.2%-10.2 pts275OVERFIT
USD/MXN-19.8%+49.9%-69.7%-12.0 pts252OVERFIT
AUD/USD+22.3%-6.6%+28.9%-10.2 pts173OVERFIT
USD/CAD-9.1%+1.7%-10.8%-11.6 pts225OVERFIT
USD/CHF-40.0%-41.4%+1.4%-13.3 pts241OVERFIT
NZD/USD-25.0%-8.1%-16.9%-12.3 pts229OVERFIT

Crypto · 2 / 2 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 2 / 2

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Bitcoin+22368.7%+17075.3%+5293.4%+22.9 pts75INCONCLUSIVE
Ethern/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin+1254.5%+859.3%+395.2%+2.5 pts148INCONCLUSIVE
Solanan/a · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanon/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinn/a · history < 10y (8.8y)

And intraday?

5-minute to 4-hour bars, every asset from where intraday history exists (stocks 2016, forex 2003, crypto 2015), against holding that same asset. Difference versus buy-and-hold. No walk-forward (see protocol).

Asset5 min15 min1 hour4 hoursDaily
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.2%-1338.1%-1008.4%+395.2%
Solanan/an/an/an/an/a
Cardanon/an/an/an/an/a
Dogecoinn/an/an/an/an/a
EUR/USD-86.9%-68.7%-32.4%-9.4%+26.3%
GBP/USD-86.8%-63.0%-9.7%-5.1%+17.8%
USD/JPY-133.1%-81.1%-60.0%-45.1%-39.2%
AUD/USD————+28.9%
USD/CAD-136.1%-120.7%-46.1%-38.6%-10.8%
USD/CHF-84.8%-70.6%-22.9%-11.1%+1.4%
NZD/USD-82.2%-68.4%-40.2%-2.2%-16.9%
S&P 500 (SPY)-453.8%-421.4%-259.1%-190.8%-2040.0%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-704.6%-654.4%-439.4%-374.7%-976.8%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-307.2%-289.9%-213.5%-147.8%-650.3%
Emergentes (EEM)-268.7%-240.0%-150.1%-76.8%-631.4%
Oro (GLD)-396.9%-365.7%-281.9%-159.4%-454.3%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-91.7%-84.9%-29.3%-14.0%-140.9%
AAPL-1348.6%-1257.9%-583.6%-1030.7%-146079.5%
AMGN-379.1%-370.6%-228.3%-289.8%-183160.0%
AMZN-835.1%-769.1%-659.5%-683.6%-258762.9%
AXP-573.4%-538.6%-357.2%-402.2%-25913.3%
BA-166.1%-79.6%-17.5%-98.4%-71148.1%
CAT-1511.8%-1438.5%-1100.6%-866.5%-164268.5%
CRM-339.4%-308.2%-203.9%+76.9%-4811.1%
CSCO-570.4%-560.7%-444.0%-316.8%-133458.2%
CVX-358.1%-346.9%-283.5%-256.4%-67850.2%
DIS-114.7%-96.1%-16.9%-27.3%-173248.8%
GOOGL-920.5%-898.6%-717.8%-533.5%-11746.5%
GS-722.8%-678.3%-467.2%-367.2%-1354.8%
HD-324.0%-288.4%-160.2%-153.7%-1941350.8%
HON-280.6%-265.5%-189.7%-194.8%-20506.9%
IBM-286.1%-230.6%-178.4%-217.1%-14656.9%
JNJ-357.5%-348.9%-240.9%-259.2%-428153.8%
JPM-742.1%-708.2%-631.5%-497.8%-33975.4%
KO-293.4%-286.3%-233.3%-169.5%-186405.0%
MCD-285.6%-274.6%-206.3%-164.7%-233460.0%
MMM-200.2%-189.9%-121.8%-95.6%-29997.7%
MRK-412.7%-396.0%-324.7%-280.0%-201452.9%
MSFT-1076.9%-1053.0%-939.1%-659.8%-828201.1%
NKE-74.1%-62.1%-30.6%+19.8%-27167.2%
NVDA-27582.9%-27060.4%-25745.5%-17738.3%+162191.1%
PG-246.9%-239.6%-182.6%-129.8%-58244.7%
SHW-448.9%-436.5%-279.9%-280.5%-230608.4%
TRV-422.0%-412.4%-333.4%-301.6%-12041.1%
UNH-401.3%-390.2%-327.3%-298.7%-345132.9%
V-543.9%-533.6%-458.5%-413.3%-2531.4%
WMT-607.5%-591.7%-517.1%-400.4%-897453.9%
ABNBn/an/an/an/an/a
ADBE-316.9%-304.2%-160.9%-34.6%-146663.5%
ADI-814.5%-798.3%-739.5%-717.0%-80405.4%
ADP-441.3%-422.1%-257.0%-295.5%-72081.8%
ADSK-431.8%-394.1%-343.1%-332.6%-57851.3%
AEP-305.3%-292.6%-154.3%-177.7%-12592.5%
ALABn/an/an/an/an/a
ALNY-254.8%-241.0%-203.7%-190.0%-3095.5%
AMAT-2817.3%-2757.5%-2137.3%-1622.6%-645276.8%
AMD-16795.3%-15964.8%-14587.3%-13747.5%+4230.0%
APPn/an/an/an/an/a
ARMn/an/an/an/an/a
ASML-2158.1%-2088.7%-1755.0%-1213.9%-75967.4%
AVGO-3402.1%-3335.4%-3163.1%-2681.2%-30577.4%
AXON-3566.4%-3132.9%-3046.3%-2652.9%-97985.3%
BKNG-421.4%-385.7%-336.3%-302.8%-125.1%
BKRn/an/an/an/a-981.9%
CCEP-415.7%-406.0%-329.5%-285.7%-6223.9%
CDNS-1657.8%-1616.0%-1518.4%-1230.7%-13836.8%
CEGn/an/an/an/an/a
CMCSA-135.8%-133.5%-91.7%-38.1%-45098.0%
COST-707.2%-669.9%-392.4%-403.9%-12146.6%
CPRT-700.4%-659.0%-385.5%-115.5%-19616.5%
CRWDn/an/an/an/an/a
CSX-696.5%-687.0%-596.0%-421.6%-39007.0%
CTAS-1031.0%-985.9%-775.2%-542.2%-119467.0%
DASHn/an/an/an/an/a
DDOGn/an/an/an/an/a
DXCM-462.7%-437.8%-205.4%-232.8%-1956.3%
EA————n/a
EXC-318.9%-306.5%-246.7%-230.9%-12258.8%
FANG-393.1%-377.7%-356.0%-307.7%-1134.6%
FAST-656.8%-650.2%-532.7%-542.3%-261396.0%
FERn/an/an/an/a-415.9%
FTNT-2745.4%-2708.2%-2501.6%-2510.7%-9602.5%
GEHCn/an/an/an/an/a
GILD-214.0%-208.1%-178.4%-85.3%-33351.7%
HONAn/an/an/an/an/a
IDXX-780.3%-759.5%-625.5%-199.2%-54645.7%
INTC-332.9%-313.4%-244.0%-178.9%-40906.3%
INTU-413.9%-393.5%-323.9%-213.5%-14829.2%
ISRG-612.5%-588.3%-349.7%-171.0%-16239.1%
KHC-56.8%-55.1%-26.6%-17.2%+19.2%
KLAC-3063.1%-2931.5%-2750.4%-2706.1%-256254.0%
LINn/an/an/an/a-10276.9%
LITE-4006.3%-3968.1%-3009.0%-3682.1%-4593.1%
LRCX-4480.7%-4407.9%-4014.4%-3036.9%-128019.8%
MAR-593.7%-549.0%-453.3%-461.3%-1481.6%
MCHP-391.4%-375.8%-246.9%-215.8%-41959.8%
MDLZ-182.0%-175.2%-132.1%-116.1%-506.6%
MELI-1799.0%-1742.7%-1346.1%-1549.5%-5388.9%
META-570.2%-507.9%-434.4%-269.1%-240.4%
MNST-194.8%-185.6%-73.7%-58.5%-57751.7%
MPWR-2250.3%-2227.6%-1968.5%-1844.2%-12055.9%
MRVL-2679.5%-2653.6%-2049.8%-2140.6%+75.0%
MSTR-743.4%-602.9%-160.9%-106.6%+9680.5%
MU-6672.2%-6392.6%-6222.5%-3290.7%+1990.0%
NFLX-743.0%-685.9%-320.2%-243.7%+47214.4%
NXPI-300.4%-293.4%-244.3%-168.2%-1634.4%
ODFL-1063.5%-1011.8%-929.6%-823.9%-35574.4%
ORLY-539.3%-526.9%-474.7%-407.0%-51896.5%
PANW-1299.6%-1197.3%-1074.2%-1049.8%-2975.5%
PCAR-580.1%-571.0%-482.6%-440.7%-56588.2%
PDDn/an/an/an/an/a
PEP-196.8%-191.4%-133.3%-135.7%-36587.6%
PLTRn/an/an/an/an/a
PYPL-155.7%-148.4%-56.1%-21.7%+23.5%
QCOM-438.6%-415.4%-259.9%-157.3%-50047.1%
REGN-155.2%-148.6%-91.5%+16.7%-3727.5%
ROP-244.1%-237.3%-155.1%-159.5%-22239.6%
ROST-465.6%-458.8%-358.5%-240.0%-36261.3%
SBUX-232.0%-225.7%-179.4%-114.0%-42077.7%
SHOP-5921.4%-5444.8%-4756.4%-4277.9%-6123.3%
SNDKn/an/an/an/an/a
SNPS-984.9%-920.6%-672.2%-800.5%-5441.3%
STX-3651.4%-3580.3%-3103.6%-1624.7%-10522.0%
TER-1856.5%-1768.2%-1072.6%-1400.5%-19237.5%
TMUS-489.7%-483.0%-413.0%-299.2%+51.6%
TRI-362.4%-343.1%-224.6%-126.1%-365.4%
TSLA-2301.2%-1117.8%-373.9%-1864.9%-21831.4%
TTWO-688.8%-685.7%-630.2%-447.5%-5521.9%
TXN-637.6%-622.2%-563.9%-411.2%-37301.5%
VRTX-440.8%-435.6%-407.2%-315.8%-11925.1%
WBDn/an/an/an/a-196.9%
WDAY-263.1%-235.4%-159.2%-115.3%-318.7%
WDC-1170.3%-1065.2%-840.0%+97.5%-50072.8%
XEL-295.9%-283.1%-219.2%-209.5%-6500.5%
KDP-278.1%-273.9%-217.2%-177.1%-869.2%
USD/MXN-134.2%-113.7%-95.8%-72.7%-69.7%
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18084.8%-17727.2%-4470.2%+5293.4%
Ether————n/a

4 / 472 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 27 / 472

What if I nudge the parameters? (on the index)

ParametersReturnSharpeMax DDVs. index
fast 1, slow 200×110.33-30.0%-2040.0%
fast 1, slow 150688.6%0.24-40.6%-2392.5%
fast 1, slow 100631.3%0.23-53.0%-2449.8%
fast 1, slow 250×110.32-25.8%-2050.2%
fast 1, slow 300×220.48-25.7%-953.0%

A rule that only works at the exact textbook numbers and dies one notch away is not an edge: it is luck.

Out of sample and robustness (on the index)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Deflated Sharpe: 0.90 (< 0.95)

Robustness suite: MODERATE

By halves: First half did not beat (+188.8% vs +237.3%); Second half did not beat (+295.1% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.5993.

Deflated Sharpe 0.8951 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Receipt

Computed on 2026-09-10 · period: each asset from its first bar (1962-01-01 to 2026-08-31) · round-trip costs: stocks and index 10 bps, forex 2 bps, crypto 30 bps · artifact 7a691ad4255c · Finaxion engine

By market

Each market's page, ordered by annual excess over the S&P 500. The first 12 are shown; the rest are in the sitemap. See all 48 markets

Sources for the claim

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Only invest above the 200-day average: works in few markets. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter

Reproduce it with your own strategy