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Finaxion Research · HCA

Which strategy works on HCA?

On HCA, 0 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample.

Findings

On HCA, 0 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars, and 0 of them hold out of sample. The best is Supertrend: the line that changes colour, at -3.4 points a year over buying and holding HCA. The worst is Upper Bollinger band breakout, at -24.8 points a year against buy-and-hold.

  1. On HCA, 0 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample.
  2. The best is Supertrend: the line that changes colour: -3.4 points a year over buying and holding HCA.
  3. The worst is Upper Bollinger band breakout: -24.8 points a year against buy-and-hold.

The 20 strategies, one by one

StrategyReturnBuy and holdExcess (pts/yr)Vs. S&P 500 (pts/yr)Out of sampleTrades
Supertrend: the line that changes colour×12×18-3.4%+3.0%—23
Only invest above the 200-day average779.0%×18-5.4%+1.0%—62
“Sell in May and go away”573.5%×18-7.4%-1.0%overfit31
Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3)383.4%×18-9.8%-3.4%—218
The golden cross (50/200)268.0%×18-11.7%-5.3%—20
The MACD cross (12/26/9)224.9%×18-12.6%-6.2%—299
RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70)212.6%×18-12.9%-6.5%—29
Parabolic SAR: follow the dots184.6%×18-13.5%-7.1%—347
ADX: trade only in strong trends175.8%×18-13.7%-7.4%—459
Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA)120.4%×18-15.3%-8.9%—509
Bounce off the lower Bollinger band74.8%×18-16.8%-10.5%—138
Ichimoku: buy above the cloud43.1%×18-18.2%-11.8%—233
Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles29.1%×18-18.9%-12.5%—1058
2-day RSI (the Connors rule)18.6%×18-19.4%-13.0%—326
Smart Money: the liquidity sweep17.7%×18-19.5%-13.1%—50
ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap6.8%×18-20.1%-13.7%—121
ICT / Smart Money: the order block2.0%×18-20.4%-14.0%—4
Wyckoff: buying the accumulation0.2%×18-20.5%-14.1%—108
The Turtles: 55-day breakout-3.3%×18-20.7%-14.4%—78
Upper Bollinger band breakout-48.7%×18-24.8%-18.4%—278

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