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Finaxion Research · NWS

Which strategy works on NWS?

On NWS, 2 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample.

Findings

On NWS, 2 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample. The best is RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70): +7.0 points a year over buying and holding NWS. The worst is Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles: -12.0 points a year against buy-and-hold.

  1. On NWS, 2 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample.
  2. The best is RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70): +7.0 points a year over buying and holding NWS.
  3. The worst is Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles: -12.0 points a year against buy-and-hold.

The 20 strategies, one by one

StrategyReturnBuy and holdExcess (pts/yr)Vs. S&P 500 (pts/yr)Out of sampleTrades
RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70)475.8%152.4%+7.0%-0.1%—32
Supertrend: the line that changes colour195.0%152.4%+1.3%-5.8%—14
Bounce off the lower Bollinger band122.4%152.4%-1.0%-8.1%—136
Wyckoff: buying the accumulation110.1%152.4%-1.5%-8.6%—80
The MACD cross (12/26/9)92.8%152.4%-2.2%-9.3%—247
The golden cross (50/200)74.4%152.4%-3.0%-10.1%—21
Parabolic SAR: follow the dots66.0%152.4%-3.3%-10.4%—303
Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3)49.6%152.4%-4.2%-11.3%—182
ADX: trade only in strong trends46.1%152.4%-4.3%-11.5%—415
“Sell in May and go away”46.0%152.4%-4.4%-11.5%—26
Only invest above the 200-day average32.5%152.4%-5.1%-12.2%—127
Upper Bollinger band breakout26.6%152.4%-5.5%-12.6%—190
Smart Money: the liquidity sweep13.8%152.4%-6.3%-13.4%—56
Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA)9.7%152.4%-6.6%-13.7%—473
ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap7.4%152.4%-6.7%-13.8%—84
ICT / Smart Money: the order block0.6%152.4%-7.2%-14.3%—2
The Turtles: 55-day breakout-9.2%152.4%-8.0%-15.1%—55
Ichimoku: buy above the cloud-13.5%152.4%-8.4%-15.5%—177
2-day RSI (the Connors rule)-16.2%152.4%-8.6%-15.7%—306
Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles-47.2%152.4%-12.0%-19.1%—915

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