FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · PSX

Which strategy works on PSX?

On PSX, 0 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample.

Findings

On PSX, 0 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars, and 0 of them hold out of sample. The best is the MACD cross (12/26/9) at -3.1 points a year over buying and holding PSX, while the worst is 2-day RSI (the Connors rule) at -22.2 points a year against buy-and-hold.

  1. On PSX, 0 of 20 famous strategies beat buy-and-hold on daily bars; 0 of them hold out of sample.
  2. The best is the MACD cross (12/26/9): -3.1 points a year over buying and holding PSX.
  3. The worst is 2-day RSI (the Connors rule): -22.2 points a year against buy-and-hold.

The 20 strategies, one by one

StrategyReturnBuy and holdExcess (pts/yr)Vs. S&P 500 (pts/yr)Out of sampleTrades
The MACD cross (12/26/9)693.4%×12-3.1%+0.9%—277
Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA)589.0%×12-4.3%-0.2%—495
Parabolic SAR: follow the dots392.5%×12-6.9%-2.8%—330
Supertrend: the line that changes colour323.6%×12-8.1%-4.0%—27
ADX: trade only in strong trends315.0%×12-8.2%-4.2%—449
Wyckoff: buying the accumulation269.1%×12-9.1%-5.1%—57
“Sell in May and go away”252.0%×12-9.5%-5.4%overfit29
Ichimoku: buy above the cloud162.9%×12-11.7%-7.6%—169
The golden cross (50/200)149.7%×12-12.1%-8.0%—21
RSI 14: buy oversold (30/70)136.6%×12-12.5%-8.4%—24
The Turtles: 55-day breakout128.3%×12-12.7%-8.7%—63
Only invest above the 200-day average73.0%×12-14.8%-10.7%—147
Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles53.5%×12-15.6%-11.6%—927
Bounce off the lower Bollinger band9.6%×12-18.0%-13.9%—120
Smart Money: the liquidity sweep3.6%×12-18.4%-14.3%—40
Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3)3.7%×12-18.4%-14.3%—174
ICT / Smart Money: the order block1.0%×12-18.6%-14.5%—4
ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap0.5%×12-18.6%-14.5%—102
Upper Bollinger band breakout-7.9%×12-19.2%-15.2%—226
2-day RSI (the Connors rule)-40.5%×12-22.2%-18.1%—312

Finaxion is an analysis tool, not an investment adviser. This page is not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prices and series: market data. Computations: Finaxion engine.