FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Mean reversion · Updated 2026-09-10

Bounce off the lower Bollinger band

Works in few markets

Its ground: forex, on 4-hour, buying several assets in signal — it beats in 17 of 961 combinations.

Markets beaten
10 / 489
Vs. index
-8.8 pts/yr
Total return
101.0%
Sharpe
-0.12
Max drawdown
-44.3%
Trades
294
10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyBuy and hold

Detail on the index (S&P 500), which is the reference for the chart, the robustness suite and the neighbours.

What works and what does not in Bounce off the lower Bollinger band?

The bounce off the lower Bollinger band beats buy-and-hold in 6 of 40 markets (15%), performing best on forex pairs and worst on cryptocurrencies, where it beats in 0 of 14. It works as a basket in 2 of 3 cases, but only in 15 of 958 single assets; its best daily market is Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (max. 25 positions) at +6.4 points a year over the S&P 500 across 34 years with 35007 trades, while its worst is NCLH at -23.7 points a year. Of the 10 daily markets where it beats, 4 hold out of sample (40%), no neighbouring parameter beats the index, and it improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 118, on 4-hour bars in 5 of 118.

  1. Bounce off the lower Bollinger band beats buy-and-hold mostly on forex pairs: 6 of 40 markets (15%).
  2. It does worst on cryptocurrencies: it beats in 0 of 14.
  3. It works as a portfolio, not as a single stock: as a basket it beats in 2 of 3, asset by asset in 15 of 958.
  4. Of the 10 daily markets where it beats, 4 hold out of sample (40%).
  5. No neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.
  6. It improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 118; on 4-hour bars, in 5 of 118.
  7. Its best daily market is Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones): +6.4 points a year over the S&P 500 across 34 years, 35007 trades.
  8. Its worst daily market is NCLH: -23.7 points a year against the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 30497848a621.

The promise

“Price always returns to the mean. When it touches the lower Bollinger band, buy; when it returns to the middle, sell.”

Exactly what we tested

Close crosses back above the lower band (20, 2σ) after piercing it → entry. Close reaches the 20-day mean → exit.

Why

In every market

Indices and ETFs · 0 / 6 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 6

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (SPY)+101.0%+3081.0%-2980.1%-8.8 pts294OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)+46.3%+1565.8%-1519.6%-7.2 pts228OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)-3.9%+801.9%-805.8%-8.8 pts218OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)+23.0%+830.9%-807.9%-10.8 pts190OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)+84.5%+820.3%-735.8%-8.1 pts178OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-1.9%+131.2%-133.1%-11.3 pts184OVERFIT

Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · max 10)+1682.3%+3081.0%-1398.8%-1.9 pts5444

Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions) · 1 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · max 20)+11386.1%+3081.0%+8305.0%+4.3 pts14040

Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions) · 1 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · max 25)+20598.6%+3081.0%+17517.6%+6.4 pts35007

Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 4 / 470 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 4 / 216

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
AAPL-62.8%+322813.1%-322875.9%before 1993344OVERFIT
AMGN+1224.7%+187272.6%-186047.9%before 1993352MARGINAL
AMZN+254.1%+265196.1%-264942.0%-5.3 pts210MARGINAL
AXP+183.5%+27029.4%-26845.9%before 1993436OVERFIT
BA+33.9%+108724.7%-108690.8%before 1993538OVERFIT
CAT+315.2%+172708.3%-172393.0%before 1993528OVERFIT
CRM+222.8%+5992.9%-5770.1%-5.5 pts178MARGINAL
CSCO+166.1%+222956.6%-222790.5%before 1993274OVERFIT
CVX+552.9%+68037.6%-67484.7%before 1993502OVERFIT
DIS+120.1%+189847.3%-189727.2%before 1993546OVERFIT
GOOGL+97.2%+13534.3%-13437.1%-8.1 pts166OVERFIT
GS+152.6%+2027.1%-1874.6%-5.0 pts244OVERFIT
HD+208.8%+1985758.9%-1985550.1%before 1993356OVERFIT
HON+271.5%+21058.8%-20787.3%before 1993519OVERFIT
IBM+41.6%+16203.8%-16162.3%before 1993526OVERFIT
JNJ+1753.8%+445196.6%-443442.8%before 1993518OVERFIT
JPM+631.8%+34522.5%-33890.7%before 1993378OVERFIT
KO+877.8%+199349.6%-198471.8%before 1993522OVERFIT
MCD+535.0%+236707.0%-236172.0%before 1993466OVERFIT
MMM+319.2%+31160.0%-30840.8%before 1993528OVERFIT
MRK+2972.9%+233375.1%-230402.2%before 1993508OVERFIT
MSFT+341.8%+859506.0%-859164.1%before 1993294OVERFIT
NKE+43.8%+32003.7%-31959.9%before 1993351OVERFIT
NVDA+309.4%+587720.8%-587411.3%-3.5 pts202OVERFIT
PG+177.7%+59706.6%-59529.0%before 1993534OVERFIT
SHW+1037.0%+231766.6%-230729.5%before 1993396OVERFIT
TRV+33.2%+12287.7%-12254.5%before 1993418OVERFIT
UNH+1140.5%+353381.4%-352240.9%before 1993337MARGINAL
V+118.0%+2961.1%-2843.1%-7.8 pts146INCONCLUSIVE
WMT+642.9%+915365.3%-914722.5%before 1993427OVERFIT
ABNBn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+116.6%+147731.1%-147614.5%before 1993316OVERFIT
ADI+3069.5%+81534.0%-78464.5%before 1993388MARGINAL
ADP+495.1%+74205.9%-73710.9%before 1993392OVERFIT
ADSK+63.4%+58084.6%-58021.1%before 1993356OVERFIT
AEP+275.6%+13797.6%-13522.0%before 1993535OVERFIT
ALABn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+153.4%+3338.4%-3185.0%-6.7 pts164OVERFIT
AMAT+3048.0%+664974.8%-661926.8%before 1993390OVERFIT
AMD-47.0%+14863.3%-14910.3%before 1993366OVERFIT
APPn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMn/a · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+352.7%+96277.5%-95924.8%-6.1 pts262OVERFIT
AVGO+174.2%+32512.1%-32337.8%-8.6 pts124INCONCLUSIVE
AXON+197.6%+123065.2%-122867.6%-5.1 pts204OVERFIT
BKNG-75.7%+922.2%-998.0%-13.6 pts200OVERFIT
BKR+72.0%+933.9%-861.8%before 1993318OVERFIT
CCEP-36.2%+7081.8%-7118.0%before 1993298OVERFIT
CDNS+1341.2%+16839.0%-15497.8%before 1993336MARGINAL
CEGn/a · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA+196.0%+47049.9%-46853.9%before 1993362OVERFIT
COST+367.4%+12800.7%-12433.3%before 1993306OVERFIT
CPRT+45.4%+21554.9%-21509.5%-9.8 pts272OVERFIT
CRWDn/a · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX+372.0%+40426.1%-40054.1%before 1993348OVERFIT
CTAS+55.1%+123411.3%-123356.2%before 1993314OVERFIT
DASHn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGn/a · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM-21.6%+3002.6%-3024.1%-12.4 pts162OVERFIT
EAn/a · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC+111.3%+17730.6%-17619.2%before 1993421OVERFIT
FANG+37.0%+1406.8%-1369.8%-12.5 pts110INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+498.6%+262350.7%-261852.1%before 1993318OVERFIT
FER+196.2%+593.7%-397.5%-6.8 pts144INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT+87.4%+10184.6%-10097.2%-10.4 pts122INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCn/a · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+697.6%+33594.8%-32897.2%before 1993284OVERFIT
HONAn/a · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+22.2%+58789.5%-58767.3%before 1993288OVERFIT
INTC+245.1%+49216.9%-48971.8%before 1993384OVERFIT
INTU+136.2%+15430.2%-15294.0%-8.2 pts268OVERFIT
ISRG+243.3%+18484.9%-18241.5%-3.6 pts220OVERFIT
KDP+34.9%+1090.2%-1055.4%-10.1 pts148INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-31.2%-42.2%+10.9%-17.6 pts98INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC+1891.6%+289399.1%-287507.6%before 1993394OVERFIT
LIN+165.3%+10777.0%-10611.7%before 1993256OVERFIT
LITE+515.9%+5280.9%-4765.1%+3.6 pts106INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX+1423.2%+159814.6%-158391.4%before 1993318OVERFIT
MAR+55.4%+2539.5%-2484.1%-7.4 pts228OVERFIT
MCHP+8736.1%+41961.5%-33225.5%+3.5 pts312MARGINAL
MDLZ+118.3%+461.4%-343.1%-6.3 pts226OVERFIT
MELI+53.1%+6911.0%-6858.0%-8.9 pts148INCONCLUSIVE
META+102.7%+1410.2%-1307.6%-10.2 pts108INCONCLUSIVE
MNST-9.8%+61968.9%-61978.7%before 1993344MARGINAL
MPWR+19.4%+15002.1%-14982.7%-10.2 pts164OVERFIT
MRVL-15.1%+1645.0%-1660.2%-9.1 pts220OVERFIT
MSTR-74.4%+1158.6%-1233.0%-13.7 pts206OVERFIT
MU+110.4%+70877.8%-70767.4%before 1993316OVERFIT
NFLX+8.0%+67643.2%-67635.2%-10.0 pts172OVERFIT
NXPI+61.1%+1721.2%-1660.1%-11.7 pts125INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL+402.7%+36444.7%-36042.0%before 1993255MARGINAL
ORLY+405.2%+55255.7%-54850.5%-5.9 pts264OVERFIT
PANW+161.2%+4215.4%-4054.2%-7.9 pts106INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+229.7%+57106.4%-56876.7%before 1993378OVERFIT
PDDn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP+640.4%+37760.7%-37120.3%before 1993462OVERFIT
PLTRn/a · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL-4.7%+44.7%-49.4%-14.8 pts100INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM+338.0%+50430.1%-50092.1%before 1993294OVERFIT
REGN+602.7%+3718.3%-3115.7%before 1993300OVERFIT
ROP+137.9%+26003.6%-25865.7%before 1993280OVERFIT
ROST-18.9%+55801.1%-55820.0%before 1993317OVERFIT
SBUX+17.6%+43019.5%-43002.0%before 1993258OVERFIT
SHOP+69.6%+8568.8%-8499.2%-9.1 pts72INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKn/a · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS+393.7%+5482.1%-5088.4%before 1993284OVERFIT
STX-66.1%+15614.6%-15680.7%-15.9 pts188OVERFIT
TER-56.4%+31309.8%-31366.2%before 1993408OVERFIT
TMUS-22.5%+318.0%-340.5%-12.2 pts160INCONCLUSIVE
TRI+102.6%+578.4%-475.8%-7.7 pts190OVERFIT
TSLA+203.8%+23002.8%-22799.0%-8.0 pts124INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO+221.4%+5509.7%-5288.3%-6.0 pts244OVERFIT
TXN+1008.7%+38040.6%-37031.9%before 1993453OVERFIT
VRTX+693.0%+12000.4%-11307.4%before 1993288OVERFIT
WBD+80.5%+302.2%-221.7%-8.3 pts194OVERFIT
WDAY+29.8%+305.5%-275.7%-12.9 pts118INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+31.2%+66202.2%-66171.0%before 1993378OVERFIT
XEL-8.1%+7388.9%-7397.0%before 1993410OVERFIT
A+40.3%+486.3%-446.0%-7.1 pts210OVERFIT
ABBV+87.7%+1156.0%-1068.3%-10.1 pts102INCONCLUSIVE
ABT+821.0%+62056.2%-61235.1%before 1993342OVERFIT
ACGL+169.9%+4268.0%-4098.1%-7.3 pts250OVERFIT
ACN+14.8%+1726.5%-1711.7%-9.0 pts196OVERFIT
ADM-7.9%+9265.6%-9273.5%before 1993350OVERFIT
AEE+65.1%+813.9%-748.9%-7.5 pts233OVERFIT
AES-73.3%+647.5%-720.8%before 1993276OVERFIT
AFL+257.2%+205848.4%-205591.2%before 1993379OVERFIT
AIG-97.3%+468.3%-565.5%before 1993419OVERFIT
AIZ+28.4%+1585.5%-1557.1%-9.8 pts198OVERFIT
AJG+56.1%+41899.5%-41843.4%before 1993346OVERFIT
AKAM+1006.4%-25.2%+1031.6%+0.9 pts232MARGINAL
ALB+10.2%+3091.3%-3081.1%-10.6 pts274OVERFIT
ALGN-35.7%+846.9%-882.6%-10.6 pts205OVERFIT
ALL-1.7%+3674.2%-3675.9%-10.9 pts262OVERFIT
ALLE+54.8%+265.9%-211.1%-10.4 pts106INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR+3.1%+100.6%-97.5%-14.8 pts120INCONCLUSIVE
AME+106.7%+25325.0%-25218.3%before 1993334OVERFIT
AMP+62.6%+2154.1%-2091.5%-8.8 pts176OVERFIT
AMT-37.0%+1310.2%-1347.2%-10.7 pts234OVERFIT
ANET+414.0%+5592.8%-5178.8%+0.6 pts96INCONCLUSIVE
AON+640.6%+29815.0%-29174.4%before 1993374MARGINAL
AOS+244.3%+13924.9%-13680.6%before 1993328OVERFIT
APA-53.9%+2417.2%-2471.1%before 1993376OVERFIT
APD+446.6%+20722.2%-20275.6%before 1993392OVERFIT
APH+501.3%+146951.6%-146450.3%before 1993274OVERFIT
APO+24.0%+1845.9%-1821.8%-12.6 pts128INCONCLUSIVE
APTV-1.5%+174.0%-175.5%-15.3 pts131INCONCLUSIVE
ARE+8.1%+624.3%-616.2%-9.4 pts224OVERFIT
ARES+7.2%+1191.9%-1184.7%-13.4 pts90INCONCLUSIVE
ATO+188.3%+13696.4%-13508.0%before 1993311OVERFIT
AVB+13.5%+42.3%-28.8%-13.9 pts93INCONCLUSIVE
AVY+373.3%+8544.4%-8171.1%before 1993460OVERFIT
AWK+148.0%+950.9%-802.9%-6.8 pts128INCONCLUSIVE
AZO+53.6%+40631.8%-40578.2%before 1993270OVERFIT
BAC+64.1%+4053.1%-3989.0%before 1993416OVERFIT
BALL+392.2%+49568.6%-49176.4%before 1993438OVERFIT
BAX+465.2%+1778.4%-1313.2%before 1993390OVERFIT
BBY-20.2%+89506.6%-89526.9%before 1993338OVERFIT
BDX+820.0%+21440.4%-20620.3%before 1993450OVERFIT
BEN+42.3%+130378.8%-130336.5%before 1993334OVERFIT
BF-B+95.4%+14873.5%-14778.1%before 1993372OVERFIT
BG+24.6%+1105.5%-1081.0%-8.7 pts216OVERFIT
BIIB+20.3%+6832.8%-6812.5%before 1993278OVERFIT
BLDR+27.3%+393.7%-366.5%-10.0 pts166OVERFIT
BLK+46.8%+13724.5%-13677.7%-7.3 pts184OVERFIT
BMY+337.2%+23662.6%-23325.4%before 1993422OVERFIT
BNY+377.1%+32230.3%-31853.3%before 1993434OVERFIT
BR-21.7%+1234.2%-1256.0%-12.3 pts160INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B+223.4%+2072.5%-1849.2%-6.4 pts252OVERFIT
BRO+81.3%+76212.8%-76131.5%before 1993356OVERFIT
BSX+67.4%+1028.2%-960.8%before 1993290OVERFIT
BX-24.9%+1023.3%-1048.2%-12.3 pts142INCONCLUSIVE
BXP+162.0%+888.9%-726.9%-6.2 pts242OVERFIT
C-41.5%+1897.9%-1939.5%before 1993376OVERFIT
CAH+105.3%+39284.8%-39179.5%before 1993342OVERFIT
CARRn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+1154.0%+80461.2%-79307.2%before 1993334OVERFIT
CB+300.3%+6587.6%-6287.3%-6.6 pts278OVERFIT
CBOE+30.6%+1060.1%-1029.5%-13.0 pts106INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE-15.8%+2283.8%-2299.7%-11.7 pts176OVERFIT
CCI+233.1%+899.9%-666.8%-4.6 pts234OVERFIT
CCL-2.7%+1154.4%-1157.1%before 1993327OVERFIT
CDW+122.0%+858.2%-736.2%-8.2 pts112INCONCLUSIVE
CF+94.3%+5815.9%-5721.6%-7.8 pts170OVERFIT
CFG-16.9%+349.9%-366.8%-15.3 pts99INCONCLUSIVE
CHD+412.4%+93736.5%-93324.1%before 1993380OVERFIT
CHRW+269.4%+4307.6%-4038.2%-4.7 pts212MARGINAL
CHTR+194.2%+335.5%-141.3%-7.4 pts146INCONCLUSIVE
CI+42.2%+12980.8%-12938.7%before 1993338OVERFIT
CIEN-78.2%+195.6%-273.8%-14.9 pts238OVERFIT
CINF+82.5%+41545.9%-41463.4%before 1993368OVERFIT
CL+1061.1%+20919.0%-19857.9%before 1993440MARGINAL
CLX+189.8%+6184.2%-5994.4%before 1993414OVERFIT
CME+291.4%+6884.2%-6592.8%-5.4 pts180OVERFIT
CMG+116.2%+4221.6%-4105.4%-7.3 pts174MARGINAL
CMI-73.9%+28968.2%-29042.2%before 1993419OVERFIT
CMS-73.5%+630.8%-704.3%before 1993395OVERFIT
CNC+138.8%+4388.8%-4250.1%-6.5 pts220OVERFIT
CNP-33.2%+13998.0%-14031.2%before 1993457OVERFIT
COF+55.3%+5724.6%-5669.2%-9.7 pts268OVERFIT
COHR+364.8%+68288.9%-67924.1%before 1993328OVERFIT
COINn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO-79.6%+879.8%-959.5%before 1993342OVERFIT
COP+38.3%+13561.7%-13523.4%before 1993346OVERFIT
COR+30.4%+17062.1%-17031.6%-10.1 pts246OVERFIT
CPAY+226.8%+1383.7%-1156.8%-6.5 pts132INCONCLUSIVE
CPT+150.3%+2453.9%-2303.6%-8.1 pts269OVERFIT
CRH+60.3%+7617.9%-7557.6%before 1993276OVERFIT
CRL+13.6%+1210.2%-1196.6%-8.0 pts204OVERFIT
CSGP-35.4%+3390.6%-3426.0%-10.4 pts218OVERFIT
CTSH+181.3%+35498.3%-35317.0%-5.2 pts234MARGINAL
CTVAn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS+210.6%+15658.6%-15448.0%before 1993453OVERFIT
D+257.1%+17762.4%-17505.3%before 1993363OVERFIT
DAL-28.8%+339.1%-367.8%-12.5 pts153INCONCLUSIVE
DD+351.3%+10113.6%-9762.4%before 1993442OVERFIT
DE+161.3%+101089.1%-100927.8%before 1993434OVERFIT
DECK+738.3%+7024.7%-6286.5%-4.1 pts278MARGINAL
DELL+100.7%+4059.8%-3959.0%-8.0 pts72INCONCLUSIVE
DG+33.9%+550.3%-516.4%-12.5 pts148INCONCLUSIVE
DGX+140.9%+9626.0%-9485.1%-7.1 pts232OVERFIT
DHI+1348.0%+13111.0%-11763.1%before 1993286OVERFIT
DHR+639.8%+483557.2%-482917.5%before 1993390OVERFIT
DLR+327.4%+3540.7%-3213.3%-4.3 pts170OVERFIT
DLTR+275.9%+10731.5%-10455.6%-6.8 pts240OVERFIT
DOC-4.1%+6136.8%-6140.9%before 1993312OVERFIT
DOV+146.4%+29264.8%-29118.4%before 1993394OVERFIT
DOWn/a · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ-6.6%+5638.6%-5645.1%-11.4 pts166OVERFIT
DRI+83.3%+6998.7%-6915.4%-8.9 pts258OVERFIT
DTE+10.4%+35264.3%-35253.9%before 1993477OVERFIT
DUK+188.6%+16239.0%-16050.4%before 1993335OVERFIT
DVA+79.7%+4219.3%-4139.6%-8.7 pts253OVERFIT
DVN-47.5%+1411.9%-1459.4%before 1993330OVERFIT
EBAY+105.7%+14035.1%-13929.4%-6.7 pts237OVERFIT
ECHO+24.1%+227.3%-203.2%-10.2 pts172INCONCLUSIVE
ECL+881.6%+20174.1%-19292.5%before 1993434OVERFIT
ED-38.9%+45081.6%-45120.5%before 1993454OVERFIT
EFX+40.8%+77234.4%-77193.6%before 1993338OVERFIT
EG+144.9%+2975.7%-2830.9%-7.6 pts260OVERFIT
EIX-42.1%+14610.5%-14652.6%before 1993412OVERFIT
EL+113.8%+1551.3%-1437.6%-8.0 pts266OVERFIT
ELV+47.0%+2326.9%-2279.8%-8.7 pts202OVERFIT
EME+53.0%+59203.5%-59150.5%-9.8 pts232OVERFIT
EMR+645.6%+19839.1%-19193.5%before 1993466OVERFIT
EOG+209.4%+9279.7%-9070.3%before 1993294OVERFIT
EQIX+193.8%+240.5%-46.7%-4.2 pts212OVERFIT
EQR+35.2%+44.2%-9.0%-12.1 pts87INCONCLUSIVE
EQT+211.0%+19557.1%-19346.1%before 1993376OVERFIT
ERIE+1.6%+3362.8%-3361.3%-10.5 pts278OVERFIT
ES-46.5%+2960.1%-3006.6%before 1993429OVERFIT
ESS+223.3%+5274.8%-5051.5%-7.3 pts254OVERFIT
ETN+13.1%+116541.5%-116528.4%before 1993428OVERFIT
ETR+82.1%+19797.9%-19715.9%before 1993420OVERFIT
EVRG+221.2%+5086.7%-4865.5%before 1993440OVERFIT
EW+524.2%+6500.0%-5975.8%-1.0 pts204MARGINAL
EXEn/a · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD+517.0%+148324.6%-147807.6%before 1993360OVERFIT
EXPE+695.2%+916.1%-221.0%-0.7 pts182OVERFIT
EXR+213.6%+2698.9%-2485.3%-6.0 pts190OVERFIT
F-82.2%+6752.4%-6834.7%before 1993418OVERFIT
FCX-39.1%+1061.6%-1100.7%-12.2 pts246OVERFIT
FDS+100.2%+9088.9%-8988.7%-8.0 pts246OVERFIT
FDX+427.4%+53776.9%-53349.5%before 1993394MARGINAL
FDXFn/a · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE-13.6%+563.0%-576.6%-10.0 pts219OVERFIT
FFIV-54.0%+5374.0%-5428.0%-11.3 pts206OVERFIT
FICO+205.9%+94747.8%-94541.9%before 1993300OVERFIT
FIS+11.8%+363.8%-352.0%-9.1 pts212OVERFIT
FITB-31.3%+28280.0%-28311.3%before 1993377OVERFIT
FIX+36.2%+11966.2%-11930.0%-8.5 pts228OVERFIT
FLEX+321.5%+7898.6%-7577.1%-6.4 pts254OVERFIT
FOXn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT+169.3%+24360.2%-24191.0%before 1993421OVERFIT
FSLR-56.6%+716.1%-772.7%-15.1 pts154OVERFIT
FTV-12.5%+100.1%-112.6%-16.8 pts76INCONCLUSIVE
GD+304.5%+221689.9%-221385.4%before 1993497OVERFIT
GDDY+24.3%+389.4%-365.1%-12.1 pts98INCONCLUSIVE
GE+105.8%+54356.2%-54250.4%before 1993545OVERFIT
GEN+151.2%+12085.6%-11934.4%before 1993316OVERFIT
GEVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS+310.4%+15015.5%-14705.1%before 1993386OVERFIT
GL+79.1%+12680.6%-12601.5%before 1993363OVERFIT
GLW+104.4%+19301.2%-19196.7%before 1993352OVERFIT
GM+65.8%+240.1%-174.3%-11.2 pts146INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC-37.9%+2091.1%-2129.0%-17.4 pts126INCONCLUSIVE
GPC+345.1%+12785.5%-12440.4%before 1993398OVERFIT
GPN+236.3%+2567.9%-2331.6%-4.2 pts222OVERFIT
GRMN+121.2%+5377.3%-5256.2%-5.8 pts186OVERFIT
GWW+528.8%+55300.2%-54771.4%before 1993432OVERFIT
HAL-22.2%+2860.8%-2883.0%before 1993434OVERFIT
HAS+141.2%+201529.8%-201388.6%before 1993386OVERFIT
HBAN+31.3%+3799.5%-3768.2%before 1993364OVERFIT
HCA+74.8%+1699.7%-1624.9%-10.5 pts138INCONCLUSIVE
HIG-35.4%+951.1%-986.5%-11.8 pts234OVERFIT
HII+76.7%+883.6%-806.9%-10.4 pts118INCONCLUSIVE
HLT+32.0%+659.1%-627.1%-11.9 pts104INCONCLUSIVE
HOODn/a · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+39.8%+625.0%-585.2%-11.7 pts90INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ+145.4%+77945.5%-77800.1%before 1993494OVERFIT
HRL+5.1%+19046.1%-19041.0%before 1993353OVERFIT
HSIC+54.4%+1913.1%-1858.7%-9.1 pts244OVERFIT
HST+84.8%+12843.9%-12759.0%before 1993379OVERFIT
HSY+202.9%+53964.6%-53761.7%before 1993358OVERFIT
HUBB+205.2%+3853.5%-3648.3%-7.5 pts278OVERFIT
HUM+262.5%+20168.9%-19906.4%before 1993352OVERFIT
HWMn/a · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR+130.8%+1526.1%-1395.4%-6.3 pts154INCONCLUSIVE
ICE+147.5%+2307.9%-2160.3%-6.7 pts190OVERFIT
IEX+144.8%+12761.2%-12616.4%before 1993278OVERFIT
IFF+87.2%+4754.9%-4667.7%before 1993412OVERFIT
INCY+193.6%+6471.7%-6278.2%-7.6 pts260OVERFIT
INVHn/a · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP+164.3%+4590.1%-4425.8%before 1993544OVERFIT
IQV+44.2%+520.3%-476.1%-11.5 pts104INCONCLUSIVE
IRn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+502.3%+9911.6%-9409.2%-4.3 pts268OVERFIT
IT-68.0%+6431.0%-6498.9%-14.3 pts254OVERFIT
ITW+421.9%+51254.1%-50832.2%before 1993432OVERFIT
IVZ+12.4%+1093.8%-1081.4%-10.3 pts264OVERFIT
J+381.8%+33544.7%-33162.9%before 1993384OVERFIT
JBHT+174.1%+24926.6%-24752.6%before 1993345OVERFIT
JBL-30.4%+41217.7%-41248.1%-12.0 pts250OVERFIT
JCI+40.1%+4376.5%-4336.4%before 1993308OVERFIT
JKHY+704.1%+71288.2%-70584.1%before 1993324OVERFIT
KEY+628.7%+1405.6%-776.9%before 1993349OVERFIT
KEYS+17.3%+1042.3%-1025.0%-13.0 pts100INCONCLUSIVE
KIM+2.3%+3036.5%-3034.2%before 1993277OVERFIT
KKR+116.9%+1784.9%-1667.9%-9.9 pts142INCONCLUSIVE
KMB+376.9%+16039.9%-15663.0%before 1993372OVERFIT
KMI+23.1%+117.5%-94.4%-12.6 pts132INCONCLUSIVE
KR+870.5%+182706.1%-181835.6%before 1993540OVERFIT
KVUEn/a · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+126.8%+22398.8%-22272.0%before 1993376OVERFIT
LDOS+86.0%+530.2%-444.2%-7.9 pts170OVERFIT
LEN+1630.1%+29032.9%-27402.9%before 1993372MARGINAL
LH+5.6%+1408.2%-1402.6%before 1993284OVERFIT
LHX+94.7%+8519.5%-8424.9%before 1993370OVERFIT
LII+23.6%+3122.4%-3098.8%-7.7 pts219OVERFIT
LLY+1250.2%+129720.0%-128469.9%before 1993454OVERFIT
LMT+209.2%+67444.7%-67235.4%before 1993518OVERFIT
LNT+121.8%+9408.5%-9286.7%before 1993405OVERFIT
LOW+179.5%+77328.4%-77148.9%before 1993380OVERFIT
LULU+85.4%+759.0%-673.6%-7.8 pts170INCONCLUSIVE
LUV+45.3%+24508.5%-24463.2%before 1993367OVERFIT
LVS-38.0%+50.3%-88.3%-13.1 pts196OVERFIT
LYB-17.3%+648.8%-666.2%-15.2 pts130INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+98.9%+1558.0%-1459.1%-7.7 pts168OVERFIT
MA+222.4%+14066.9%-13844.5%-5.3 pts146OVERFIT
MAA+248.2%+3525.2%-3276.9%-6.9 pts244OVERFIT
MAS+98.4%+7423.1%-7324.7%before 1993396OVERFIT
MCK-18.9%+6946.5%-6965.4%-11.8 pts234OVERFIT
MCO+81.8%+7753.9%-7672.2%-9.2 pts216OVERFIT
MDT+348.9%+51421.0%-51072.1%before 1993424OVERFIT
MET+583.9%+1176.9%-593.1%-0.7 pts246OVERFIT
MGM+27.5%+1501.4%-1473.9%before 1993341OVERFIT
MKC+761.3%+14401.8%-13640.5%before 1993440OVERFIT
MLM+202.8%+3089.6%-2886.8%-7.4 pts263OVERFIT
MO+1322.7%+2914781.4%-2913458.7%before 1993498MARGINAL
MOS-46.2%+268.9%-315.1%before 1993320OVERFIT
MPC-3.1%+2972.8%-2975.8%-14.8 pts116INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAn/a · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+196.9%+21192.9%-20995.9%before 1993430OVERFIT
MS-9.0%+6159.1%-6168.2%-11.2 pts248OVERFIT
MSCI+93.5%+2406.7%-2313.2%-7.7 pts160INCONCLUSIVE
MSI+453.0%+79243.2%-78790.2%before 1993534OVERFIT
MTB+175.0%+105049.8%-104874.8%before 1993343OVERFIT
MTD+240.4%+9346.3%-9106.0%-5.1 pts236OVERFIT
NCLH-71.9%-34.9%-37.0%-23.7 pts117INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ-8.8%+2371.2%-2380.0%-11.3 pts176OVERFIT
NDSN-10.0%+37769.3%-37779.2%before 1993348OVERFIT
NEE+607.0%+23772.9%-23165.9%before 1993425OVERFIT
NEM-8.9%+2099.8%-2108.7%before 1993356OVERFIT
NI+431.1%+5234.9%-4803.8%before 1993439OVERFIT
NOC-40.2%+23369.3%-23409.5%before 1993338OVERFIT
NOW+66.2%+2907.9%-2841.8%-11.3 pts110INCONCLUSIVE
NRG+73.2%+1442.6%-1369.4%-8.6 pts177OVERFIT
NSC+433.9%+24520.7%-24086.7%before 1993352OVERFIT
NTAP-64.4%+19659.8%-19724.2%-13.8 pts248OVERFIT
NTRS+99.8%+53074.8%-52975.0%before 1993368OVERFIT
NUE+1625.8%+70209.1%-68583.3%before 1993385OVERFIT
NVR+152.9%+61512.0%-61359.1%-8.0 pts244OVERFIT
NWS+122.4%+152.4%-30.0%-8.1 pts136INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA+104.7%+122.2%-17.5%-8.8 pts136INCONCLUSIVE
O+238.5%+5366.4%-5127.9%-7.2 pts246OVERFIT
OKE+135.7%+19101.6%-18965.9%before 1993380OVERFIT
OMC+543.5%+15677.5%-15134.1%before 1993394OVERFIT
ON-84.0%+208.7%-292.7%-15.2 pts213OVERFIT
ORCL+27.1%+296729.4%-296702.3%before 1993340OVERFIT
OTISn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY+4.9%+3580.0%-3575.1%before 1993344OVERFIT
PCG-4.1%+1389.7%-1393.7%before 1993424OVERFIT
PEG+205.7%+18884.4%-18678.7%before 1993351OVERFIT
PFE+767.4%+20062.7%-19295.3%before 1993434OVERFIT
PFG+183.3%+920.1%-736.8%-5.9 pts194MARGINAL
PGR+186.9%+819581.9%-819395.0%before 1993334OVERFIT
PH+10.2%+41129.4%-41119.3%before 1993374OVERFIT
PHM+140.0%+95847.7%-95707.7%before 1993368OVERFIT
PLD+117.2%+1782.5%-1665.4%-6.6 pts218OVERFIT
PM+155.8%+785.7%-629.9%-7.0 pts156INCONCLUSIVE
PNC+193.7%+37937.9%-37744.2%before 1993408OVERFIT
PNR+390.9%+11510.8%-11119.9%before 1993436OVERFIT
PNW-10.6%+2247.6%-2258.2%before 1993435OVERFIT
PODD-85.9%+831.5%-917.3%-20.5 pts165INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+83.2%+21327.4%-21244.2%before 1993370OVERFIT
PPL+120.2%+7311.8%-7191.7%before 1993359OVERFIT
PRU+68.8%+767.8%-699.0%-7.9 pts208OVERFIT
PSA+353.5%+13958.7%-13605.2%before 1993346OVERFIT
PSKY-26.3%-34.8%+8.5%-12.6 pts170OVERFIT
PSX+9.6%+1071.7%-1062.0%-13.9 pts120INCONCLUSIVE
PTC+129.4%+8443.5%-8314.0%before 1993294OVERFIT
PWR+112.7%+8155.1%-8042.4%-6.5 pts242OVERFIT
Qn/a · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL-60.2%+4611.6%-4671.8%-13.7 pts253OVERFIT
REG+302.9%+2046.5%-1743.6%-6.5 pts269OVERFIT
RF+46.3%+7230.0%-7183.7%before 1993375OVERFIT
RJF+207.0%+52691.1%-52484.1%before 1993332OVERFIT
RL+632.7%+1376.9%-744.2%-2.5 pts260OVERFIT
RMD+203.5%+43254.4%-43050.9%-7.2 pts248OVERFIT
ROK+144.8%+57325.7%-57180.9%before 1993339OVERFIT
ROL+1449.8%+36503.9%-35054.1%before 1993392OVERFIT
RSG-26.4%+1977.7%-2004.0%-9.9 pts204OVERFIT
RTX+102.5%+231131.9%-231029.3%before 1993493OVERFIT
RVTY+252.6%+25547.2%-25294.6%before 1993424OVERFIT
SBAC-34.5%+2259.6%-2294.2%-10.1 pts198OVERFIT
SCHW+821.9%+45501.9%-44680.0%before 1993318OVERFIT
SJM+434.0%+1119.0%-684.9%-5.7 pts284OVERFIT
SLB+218.0%+1125.4%-907.4%before 1993372OVERFIT
SMCI+250.0%+4155.7%-3905.7%-4.4 pts150INCONCLUSIVE
SNA+280.3%+12522.0%-12241.8%before 1993456OVERFIT
SO+144.8%+32617.4%-32472.6%before 1993317OVERFIT
SOLVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+160.5%+5330.6%-5170.1%-7.9 pts256OVERFIT
SPGI+168.4%+140503.3%-140334.9%before 1993404OVERFIT
SRE+94.8%+1463.0%-1368.2%-6.5 pts220OVERFIT
STE+553.4%+15491.4%-14938.0%before 1993288MARGINAL
STLD+31.5%+7831.8%-7800.3%-9.1 pts249OVERFIT
STT+126.8%+199686.1%-199559.3%before 1993342OVERFIT
STZ+241.2%+10007.0%-9765.8%before 1993288OVERFIT
SW+218.7%+775.0%-556.2%-5.4 pts168INCONCLUSIVE
SWK+609.2%+5887.9%-5278.7%before 1993410OVERFIT
SWKS+297.9%+1317.3%-1019.4%before 1993360OVERFIT
SYF+50.3%+325.2%-274.9%-10.5 pts114INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+367.0%+430371.4%-430004.4%before 1993366OVERFIT
SYY+932.2%+115885.9%-114953.7%before 1993442OVERFIT
T+244.3%+10219.8%-9975.5%before 1993330OVERFIT
TAP+784.6%+518.8%+265.9%before 1993436OVERFIT
TDG+76.0%+13285.3%-13209.3%-8.2 pts153OVERFIT
TDY+329.0%+7164.6%-6835.6%-2.8 pts228OVERFIT
TECH+197.3%+79246.8%-79049.5%before 1993298OVERFIT
TEL-8.5%+671.1%-679.5%-11.2 pts142INCONCLUSIVE
TFC-29.6%+10226.4%-10256.1%before 1993389OVERFIT
TGT+173.0%+90566.5%-90393.5%before 1993416OVERFIT
TJX+174.8%+36154.4%-35979.7%before 1993311OVERFIT
TKO+54.4%+1638.9%-1584.4%-7.2 pts222OVERFIT
TMO-16.8%+36784.3%-36801.0%before 1993326OVERFIT
TPL+3.5%+75277.1%-75273.6%before 1993352OVERFIT
TPR+15.0%+7766.6%-7751.6%-8.1 pts217OVERFIT
TRGP-70.8%+2202.9%-2273.7%-21.9 pts120INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB+166.4%+3366.4%-3200.0%before 1993310OVERFIT
TROW+276.0%+35932.6%-35656.6%before 1993317OVERFIT
TSCO+148.5%+15199.0%-15050.6%-8.1 pts262OVERFIT
TSN+37.2%+4340.8%-4303.7%before 1993372OVERFIT
TT+70.0%+49748.2%-49678.1%before 1993384OVERFIT
TTDn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+204.7%+4901.2%-4696.5%before 1993453OVERFIT
TYL+336.3%+43359.1%-43022.8%before 1993388OVERFIT
UAL-36.9%+240.6%-277.6%-13.4 pts165OVERFIT
UBERn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR+391.2%+14119.5%-13728.3%before 1993364OVERFIT
UHS+9.8%+15293.2%-15283.3%before 1993360OVERFIT
ULTA+51.1%+1721.3%-1670.1%-8.8 pts150INCONCLUSIVE
UNP+583.3%+30311.4%-29728.1%before 1993384OVERFIT
UPS+48.8%+233.2%-184.4%-7.0 pts234OVERFIT
URI-26.7%+7088.3%-7115.0%-10.5 pts218OVERFIT
USB+70.4%+44799.0%-44728.6%before 1993439OVERFIT
VEEV+101.5%+668.8%-567.3%-8.6 pts100INCONCLUSIVE
VICIn/a · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO-9.3%+23394.0%-23403.2%before 1993342OVERFIT
VLTOn/a · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+456.1%+48759.3%-48303.2%before 1993432OVERFIT
VRSK+33.1%+648.8%-615.6%-12.7 pts132INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN+140.9%+5322.0%-5181.1%-6.2 pts228MARGINAL
VRTn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR+4.7%+1496.8%-1492.1%-9.6 pts232OVERFIT
VTRS+81.6%+1568.8%-1487.2%before 1993364OVERFIT
VZ+199.2%+4889.1%-4690.0%before 1993380OVERFIT
WAB+286.8%+4137.7%-3850.9%-6.3 pts246OVERFIT
WAT+29.8%+10865.4%-10835.6%-9.7 pts232OVERFIT
WEC+503.0%+23656.8%-23153.8%before 1993376OVERFIT
WELL+183.8%+58774.1%-58590.3%before 1993368OVERFIT
WFC+434.5%+63452.2%-63017.7%before 1993449OVERFIT
WM-21.7%+8471.2%-8492.9%before 1993313OVERFIT
WMB+1143.3%+11974.1%-10830.8%before 1993358MARGINAL
WSM+561.6%+69865.8%-69304.2%before 1993358OVERFIT
WST+184.7%+79208.6%-79023.9%before 1993348OVERFIT
WTW+123.8%+1181.6%-1057.8%-6.1 pts194OVERFIT
WY+46.1%+1781.4%-1735.3%before 1993438OVERFIT
WYNN+11.3%+1217.6%-1206.2%-10.9 pts176OVERFIT
XOM+1043.8%+183657.9%-182614.0%before 1993508OVERFIT
XYL+37.3%+455.0%-417.7%-13.1 pts109INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ+13.5%+527.5%-514.0%-13.5 pts80INCONCLUSIVE
YUM+217.6%+4282.5%-4064.9%-5.3 pts244OVERFIT
ZBH+61.9%+292.2%-230.3%-7.7 pts214OVERFIT
ZBRA+134.8%+8617.7%-8482.9%before 1993296OVERFIT
ZTS+13.7%+179.3%-165.6%-13.7 pts108INCONCLUSIVE

Forex · 4 / 8 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 8

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
EUR/USD-26.4%-3.1%-23.3%-12.4 pts190OVERFIT
GBP/USD+18.5%-21.2%+39.7%-10.3 pts216OVERFIT
USD/JPY-14.8%+40.2%-55.0%-10.8 pts238OVERFIT
USD/MXN+32.7%+49.9%-17.2%-9.8 pts165OVERFIT
AUD/USD-1.3%-6.6%+5.3%-11.2 pts180OVERFIT
USD/CAD+10.2%+1.7%+8.6%-10.7 pts177OVERFIT
USD/CHF+25.0%-41.4%+66.4%-10.2 pts229OVERFIT
NZD/USD-10.2%-8.1%-2.1%-11.5 pts196OVERFIT

Crypto · 0 / 2 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 2

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Bitcoin-5.1%+17075.3%-17080.5%-14.1 pts124INCONCLUSIVE
Ethern/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin-81.3%+859.3%-940.6%-23.0 pts114INCONCLUSIVE
Solanan/a · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanon/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinn/a · history < 10y (8.8y)

And intraday?

5-minute to 4-hour bars, every asset from where intraday history exists (stocks 2016, forex 2003, crypto 2015), against holding that same asset. Difference versus buy-and-hold. No walk-forward (see protocol).

Asset5 min15 min1 hour4 hoursDaily
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.2%-1348.0%-1187.4%-940.6%
Solanan/an/an/an/an/a
Cardanon/an/an/an/an/a
Dogecoinn/an/an/an/an/a
EUR/USD-84.3%-50.4%-28.3%-3.7%-23.3%
GBP/USD-83.6%-62.0%-23.9%-1.2%+39.7%
USD/JPY-133.6%-109.9%-102.8%-17.4%-55.0%
AUD/USD+5.3%
USD/CAD-132.5%-96.8%-13.6%-20.9%+8.6%
USD/CHF-79.2%-52.6%-10.1%+45.6%+66.4%
NZD/USD-78.1%-44.7%-31.5%+3.7%-2.1%
S&P 500 (SPY)-453.9%-443.3%-336.7%-354.4%-2980.1%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-705.0%-693.9%-577.5%-588.7%-1519.6%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-307.2%-297.3%-197.0%-225.3%-805.8%
Emergentes (EEM)-269.0%-261.6%-178.2%-144.6%-807.9%
Oro (GLD)-397.3%-389.4%-324.3%-270.2%-735.8%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-91.8%-86.0%-33.1%+0.2%-133.1%
AAPL-1349.5%-1341.6%-1264.8%-1241.0%-322875.9%
AMGN-379.0%-372.0%-309.3%-248.2%-186047.9%
AMZN-836.4%-828.6%-762.1%-715.3%-264942.0%
AXP-573.7%-564.0%-484.1%-453.9%-26845.9%
BA-166.5%-163.5%-156.9%-108.3%-108690.8%
CAT-1512.9%-1501.3%-1417.6%-1441.7%-172393.0%
CRM-339.4%-330.6%-277.0%-257.2%-5770.1%
CSCO-570.3%-559.6%-457.2%-438.0%-222790.5%
CVX-358.1%-344.5%-243.0%-287.4%-67484.7%
DIS-114.7%-109.5%-42.8%-18.7%-189727.2%
GOOGL-920.7%-909.8%-800.8%-794.3%-13437.1%
GS-723.1%-714.2%-654.9%-624.4%-1874.6%
HD-324.1%-318.8%-267.8%-249.0%-1985550.1%
HON-280.6%-271.6%-189.9%-140.7%-20787.3%
IBM-286.6%-283.2%-219.0%-206.8%-16162.3%
JNJ-357.4%-347.4%-255.0%-249.8%-443442.8%
JPM-742.1%-729.2%-617.8%-619.3%-33890.7%
KO-293.4%-285.1%-209.9%-144.0%-198471.8%
MCD-285.6%-279.7%-202.2%-180.6%-236172.0%
MMM-200.2%-196.1%-129.0%-80.0%-30840.8%
MRK-412.6%-400.2%-299.6%-313.7%-230402.2%
MSFT-1076.9%-1052.5%-930.2%-937.3%-859164.1%
NKE-74.2%-67.9%-7.5%+20.9%-31959.9%
NVDA-27585.7%-27548.3%-27389.1%-27389.0%-587411.3%
PG-246.8%-239.9%-141.6%-42.7%-59529.0%
SHW-448.8%-436.2%-362.6%-286.2%-230729.5%
TRV-422.0%-412.2%-272.9%-322.5%-12254.5%
UNH-401.3%-393.1%-318.1%-279.9%-352240.9%
V-543.8%-532.2%-378.8%-331.5%-2843.1%
WMT-607.5%-597.7%-498.1%-470.5%-914722.5%
ABNBn/an/an/an/an/a
ADBE-316.9%-291.7%-209.6%-193.6%-147614.5%
ADI-814.3%-799.0%-669.3%-638.8%-78464.5%
ADP-441.2%-428.4%-306.4%-335.0%-73710.9%
ADSK-432.1%-427.0%-345.9%-310.7%-58021.1%
AEP-305.3%-298.6%-246.4%-175.4%-13522.0%
ALABn/an/an/an/an/a
ALNY-254.8%-250.0%-143.4%-171.3%-3185.0%
AMAT-2817.7%-2800.5%-2624.5%-2502.9%-661926.8%
AMD-16807.9%-16796.9%-16484.1%-16546.8%-14910.3%
APPn/an/an/an/an/a
ARMn/an/an/an/an/a
ASML-2158.5%-2140.2%-1932.0%-1869.3%-95924.8%
AVGO-3403.0%-3386.7%-3233.6%-3198.7%-32337.8%
AXON-3569.2%-3562.0%-3520.6%-3433.8%-122867.6%
BKNG-421.4%-411.6%-356.6%-232.3%-998.0%
BKRn/an/an/an/a-861.8%
CCEP-415.7%-406.9%-338.0%-321.6%-7118.0%
CDNS-1657.8%-1642.9%-1552.1%-1520.2%-15497.8%
CEGn/an/an/an/an/a
CMCSA-135.7%-121.9%+6.5%-11.5%-46853.9%
COST-707.3%-695.0%-611.9%-582.7%-12433.3%
CPRT-700.5%-687.7%-650.1%-640.5%-21509.5%
CRWDn/an/an/an/an/a
CSX-696.5%-681.6%-571.8%-615.7%-40054.1%
CTAS-1031.1%-1023.8%-933.4%-974.8%-123356.2%
DASHn/an/an/an/an/a
DDOGn/an/an/an/an/a
DXCM-462.7%-461.3%-375.3%-263.4%-3024.1%
EAn/a
EXC-318.8%-313.8%-241.0%-165.3%-17619.2%
FANG-393.1%-387.7%-329.8%-310.5%-1369.8%
FAST-656.7%-641.6%-584.6%-489.7%-261852.1%
FERn/an/an/an/a-397.5%
FTNT-2745.5%-2733.0%-2657.8%-2302.5%-10097.2%
GEHCn/an/an/an/an/a
GILD-214.0%-205.9%-129.2%-33.5%-32897.2%
HONAn/an/an/an/an/a
IDXX-780.2%-770.2%-637.7%-634.0%-58767.3%
INTC-333.0%-320.1%-287.2%-211.6%-48971.8%
INTU-414.1%-402.9%-274.7%-284.1%-15294.0%
ISRG-612.6%-601.5%-494.4%-526.6%-18241.5%
KHC-56.7%-50.0%+1.6%+19.7%+10.9%
KLAC-3063.3%-3056.0%-2788.9%-2618.9%-287507.6%
LINn/an/an/an/a-10611.7%
LITE-4007.8%-3985.7%-3724.8%-3665.0%-4765.1%
LRCX-4481.2%-4469.4%-4273.5%-4260.1%-158391.4%
MAR-594.2%-589.9%-511.7%-336.6%-2484.1%
MCHP-391.5%-376.4%-278.9%-340.6%-33225.5%
MDLZ-181.9%-173.8%-90.7%-43.7%-343.1%
MELI-1800.0%-1791.2%-1679.2%-1628.1%-6858.0%
META-570.4%-559.2%-439.9%-443.6%-1307.6%
MNST-194.7%-183.6%-100.3%-104.8%-61978.7%
MPWR-2250.1%-2243.6%-1838.5%-2157.4%-14982.7%
MRVL-2679.7%-2674.8%-2510.0%-2410.6%-1660.2%
MSTR-743.7%-736.0%-727.4%-705.6%-1233.0%
MU-6675.8%-6660.0%-6601.6%-6502.7%-70767.4%
NFLX-743.1%-727.1%-669.5%-659.7%-67635.2%
NXPI-300.4%-290.8%-85.7%-141.6%-1660.1%
ODFL-1063.6%-1045.3%-955.2%-911.6%-36042.0%
ORLY-539.2%-529.3%-405.6%-406.6%-54850.5%
PANW-1299.7%-1289.9%-1187.0%-1213.0%-4054.2%
PCAR-580.0%-553.3%-398.0%-440.6%-56876.7%
PDDn/an/an/an/an/a
PEP-196.8%-188.4%-106.3%-108.5%-37120.3%
PLTRn/an/an/an/an/a
PYPL-155.6%-145.2%-80.3%-76.1%-49.4%
QCOM-438.5%-429.9%-334.9%-339.8%-50092.1%
REGN-155.1%-140.6%-92.7%-50.4%-3115.7%
ROP-244.0%-234.2%-146.1%-157.8%-25865.7%
ROST-465.6%-451.4%-355.1%-310.6%-55820.0%
SBUX-232.0%-223.8%-163.6%-107.0%-43002.0%
SHOP-5944.7%-5935.8%-5892.0%-5643.7%-8499.2%
SNDKn/an/an/an/an/a
SNPS-985.2%-979.5%-886.8%-871.2%-5088.4%
STX-3652.4%-3640.0%-3517.3%-3414.0%-15680.7%
TER-1856.8%-1850.6%-1700.8%-1776.2%-31366.2%
TMUS-489.6%-476.1%-377.8%-234.8%-340.5%
TRI-362.6%-355.4%-314.9%-296.3%-475.8%
TSLA-2341.5%-2339.2%-2305.8%-2278.1%-22799.0%
TTWO-688.4%-654.5%-564.6%-536.6%-5288.3%
TXN-637.5%-621.0%-494.9%-492.4%-37031.9%
VRTX-440.7%-432.8%-161.5%-128.6%-11307.4%
WBDn/an/an/an/a-221.7%
WDAY-263.2%-253.8%-124.7%-39.6%-275.7%
WDC-1171.4%-1164.6%-1120.0%-1137.4%-66171.0%
XEL-295.8%-288.1%-230.8%-192.7%-7397.0%
KDP-278.0%-265.9%-202.4%-187.8%-1055.4%
USD/MXN-125.9%-77.3%-84.4%-51.5%-17.2%
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18084.8%-18084.7%-18063.1%-17080.5%
Ethern/a

7 / 472 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 472

What if I nudge the parameters? (on the index)

ParametersReturnSharpeMax DDVs. index
period 20, std_dev 2.0101.0%-0.12-44.3%-2980.1%
period 20, std_dev 1.560.7%-0.16-56.9%-3020.3%
period 20, std_dev 2.552.9%-0.23-35.3%-3028.1%
period 10, std_dev 2.081.9%-0.18-30.8%-2999.1%
period 50, std_dev 2.072.6%-0.14-39.2%-3008.4%

A rule that only works at the exact textbook numbers and dies one notch away is not an edge: it is luck.

Out of sample and robustness (on the index)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Deflated Sharpe: 0.39 (< 0.95)

Robustness suite: MODERATE

By halves: First half did not beat (+9.6% vs +237.3%); Second half did not beat (+83.4% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = -0.5628.

Deflated Sharpe 0.3913 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Receipt

Computed on 2026-09-10 · period: each asset from its first bar (1962-01-01 to 2026-08-31) · round-trip costs: stocks and index 10 bps, forex 2 bps, crypto 30 bps · artifact 30497848a621 · Finaxion engine

By market

Each market's page, ordered by annual excess over the S&P 500. The first 12 are shown; the rest are in the sitemap. See all 19 markets

Sources for the claim

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Bounce off the lower Bollinger band: works in few markets. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 30497848a621. https://finaxion.app/en/research/bollinger-bounce

Reproduce it with your own strategy