FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Volatility · Updated 2026-09-10

Upper Bollinger band breakout

Works in few markets

Its ground: forex, on 4-hour, on a single asset — it beats in 8 of 961 combinations.

Markets beaten
6 / 489
Vs. index
-12.0 pts/yr
Total return
-31.7%
Sharpe
-2.30
Max drawdown
-32.0%
Trades
462
1×10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyBuy and hold

Detail on the index (S&P 500), which is the reference for the chart, the robustness suite and the neighbours.

What works and what does not in Upper Bollinger band breakout?

  1. There is no asset class where Upper Bollinger band breakout works consistently; it does least badly on forex pairs: 5 of 40 (12%).
  2. It does worst on cryptocurrencies: it beats in 0 of 14.
  3. Of the 6 daily markets where it beats, 1 hold out of sample (17%).
  4. No neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.
  5. It improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 118; on 4-hour bars, in 2 of 118.
  6. Its best daily market is MSTR: -1.2 points a year over the S&P 500 across 28 years, 450 trades.
  7. Its worst daily market is Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones): -32.5 points a year against the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 0a2f2c1b7ca1.

The promise

“When price breaks the upper band, the trend accelerates: jump on.”

Exactly what we tested

Long while the close is above the upper band (20, 2σ); flat when it drops back below.

Why

In every market

Indices and ETFs · 0 / 6 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 6

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (SPY)-31.7%+3081.0%-3112.7%-12.0 pts462OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-39.0%+1565.8%-1604.9%-10.4 pts358OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)-23.8%+801.9%-825.7%-9.7 pts352OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)-2.7%+830.9%-833.7%-11.8 pts324OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)-0.0%+820.3%-820.3%-10.9 pts356OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-51.7%+131.2%-182.9%-14.2 pts420OVERFIT

Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · max 10)-99.7%+3081.0%-3180.7%-26.5 pts12357—

Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · max 20)-99.4%+3081.0%-3180.4%-24.8 pts32510—

Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · max 25)-100.0%+3081.0%-3181.0%-32.5 pts131566—

Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 2 / 470 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 216

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
AAPL+84.2%+322813.1%-322728.8%before 1993767OVERFIT
AMGN-43.7%+187272.6%-187316.3%before 1993696OVERFIT
AMZN-24.4%+265196.1%-265220.5%-10.6 pts510OVERFIT
AXP-57.9%+27029.4%-27087.2%before 1993874OVERFIT
BA-30.3%+108724.7%-108754.9%before 19931000OVERFIT
CAT+62.5%+172708.3%-172645.8%before 1993996OVERFIT
CRM-19.0%+5992.9%-6011.9%-11.9 pts349OVERFIT
CSCO-46.4%+222956.6%-223003.0%before 1993574OVERFIT
CVX-50.1%+68037.6%-68087.7%before 19931000OVERFIT
DIS+68.1%+189847.3%-189779.2%before 19931006OVERFIT
GOOGL+61.4%+13534.3%-13472.9%-9.1 pts380OVERFIT
GS-56.7%+2027.1%-2083.8%-11.5 pts434OVERFIT
HD-50.9%+1985758.9%-1985809.8%before 1993724OVERFIT
HON-72.2%+21058.8%-21131.0%before 1993972OVERFIT
IBM-37.0%+16203.8%-16240.8%before 1993992OVERFIT
JNJ-32.6%+445196.6%-445229.2%before 19931016OVERFIT
JPM-75.8%+34522.5%-34598.2%before 1993724OVERFIT
KO-44.8%+199349.6%-199394.4%before 19931048OVERFIT
MCD-52.1%+236707.0%-236759.0%before 1993962OVERFIT
MMM-58.8%+31160.0%-31218.8%before 1993980OVERFIT
MRK-77.7%+233375.1%-233452.8%before 19931066OVERFIT
MSFT-40.8%+859506.0%-859546.8%before 1993693OVERFIT
NKE-59.2%+32003.7%-32062.8%before 1993716OVERFIT
NVDA-36.4%+587720.8%-587757.2%-10.4 pts488OVERFIT
PG-48.8%+59706.6%-59755.4%before 19931018OVERFIT
SHW-72.3%+231766.6%-231838.9%before 1993774OVERFIT
TRV+64.9%+12287.7%-12222.8%before 1993796OVERFIT
UNH-31.9%+353381.4%-353413.2%before 1993686OVERFIT
V-32.9%+2961.1%-2994.0%-14.3 pts302INCONCLUSIVE
WMT+3.6%+915365.3%-915361.8%before 1993892OVERFIT
ABNBn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE-58.1%+147731.1%-147789.2%before 1993693OVERFIT
ADI-79.8%+81534.0%-81613.8%before 1993674OVERFIT
ADP-34.6%+74205.9%-74240.5%before 1993758OVERFIT
ADSK-45.6%+58084.6%-58130.2%before 1993644OVERFIT
AEP-31.5%+13797.6%-13829.1%before 19931106OVERFIT
ALABn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+11.8%+3338.4%-3326.6%-10.5 pts354OVERFIT
AMAT-53.4%+664974.8%-665028.2%before 1993722OVERFIT
AMD+56.3%+14863.3%-14807.0%before 1993756OVERFIT
APPn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMn/a · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML-73.7%+96277.5%-96351.2%-15.2 pts518OVERFIT
AVGO-0.3%+32512.1%-32512.4%-14.7 pts270INCONCLUSIVE
AXON+300.8%+123065.2%-122764.4%-3.8 pts418OVERFIT
BKNG-30.7%+922.2%-952.9%-9.9 pts456OVERFIT
BKR-27.3%+933.9%-961.2%before 1993602OVERFIT
CCEP-58.7%+7081.8%-7140.5%before 1993658OVERFIT
CDNS-14.1%+16839.0%-16853.1%before 1993644OVERFIT
CEGn/a · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA-70.6%+47049.9%-47120.4%before 1993714OVERFIT
COST-61.3%+12800.7%-12862.0%before 1993660OVERFIT
CPRT-43.5%+21554.9%-21598.4%-12.7 pts554OVERFIT
CRWDn/a · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX-66.5%+40426.1%-40492.7%before 1993730OVERFIT
CTAS-42.7%+123411.3%-123454.0%before 1993750OVERFIT
DASHn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGn/a · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM-29.2%+3002.6%-3031.8%-12.9 pts346OVERFIT
EAn/a · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC-45.9%+17730.6%-17776.5%before 1993914OVERFIT
FANG-53.3%+1406.8%-1460.1%-20.2 pts232INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+7.7%+262350.7%-262343.0%before 1993628OVERFIT
FER-21.7%+593.7%-615.4%-16.5 pts196INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT-46.0%+10184.6%-10230.6%-17.8 pts294INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCn/a · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD-70.2%+33594.8%-33664.9%before 1993578OVERFIT
HONAn/a · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX-45.7%+58789.5%-58835.2%before 1993590OVERFIT
INTC-62.4%+49216.9%-49279.3%before 1993776OVERFIT
INTU-6.0%+15430.2%-15436.2%-11.0 pts544OVERFIT
ISRG-13.3%+18484.9%-18498.2%-9.0 pts420OVERFIT
KDP-52.6%+1090.2%-1142.8%-15.8 pts288INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-19.0%-42.2%+23.2%-16.2 pts144INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC-82.5%+289399.1%-289481.6%before 1993708OVERFIT
LIN-70.2%+10777.0%-10847.2%before 1993584OVERFIT
LITE+17.0%+5280.9%-5263.9%-12.8 pts156INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX-55.5%+159814.6%-159870.1%before 1993730OVERFIT
MAR-20.6%+2539.5%-2560.1%-9.7 pts442OVERFIT
MCHP-86.3%+41961.5%-42047.9%-16.6 pts528OVERFIT
MDLZ-44.9%+461.4%-506.3%-11.8 pts358OVERFIT
MELI-27.7%+6911.0%-6938.8%-12.8 pts318INCONCLUSIVE
META-47.5%+1410.2%-1457.8%-19.7 pts242INCONCLUSIVE
MNST+88.3%+61968.9%-61880.6%before 1993638OVERFIT
MPWR-52.6%+15002.1%-15054.7%-14.4 pts396OVERFIT
MRVL+7.2%+1645.0%-1637.8%-8.2 pts392OVERFIT
MSTR+724.7%+1158.6%-433.9%-1.2 pts450OVERFIT
MU-64.9%+70877.8%-70942.7%before 1993704OVERFIT
NFLX-47.1%+67643.2%-67690.3%-12.9 pts440OVERFIT
NXPI-45.3%+1721.2%-1766.4%-18.4 pts254INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL-69.2%+36444.7%-36513.9%before 1993524OVERFIT
ORLY+0.9%+55255.7%-55254.8%-10.9 pts544OVERFIT
PANW+12.8%+4215.4%-4202.7%-14.1 pts218INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR-28.9%+57106.4%-57135.3%before 1993732OVERFIT
PDDn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP-68.5%+37760.7%-37829.2%before 1993916OVERFIT
PLTRn/a · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL-27.7%+44.7%-72.5%-17.2 pts184INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM+14.9%+50430.1%-50415.2%before 1993518OVERFIT
REGN+347.5%+3718.3%-3370.8%before 1993550OVERFIT
ROP-6.1%+26003.6%-26009.7%before 1993555OVERFIT
ROST-54.8%+55801.1%-55856.0%before 1993698OVERFIT
SBUX-55.4%+43019.5%-43075.0%before 1993596OVERFIT
SHOP-2.4%+8568.8%-8571.2%-14.1 pts206INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKn/a · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS-46.5%+5482.1%-5528.6%before 1993532OVERFIT
STX-19.1%+15614.6%-15633.8%-12.3 pts400OVERFIT
TER-73.9%+31309.8%-31383.7%before 1993866OVERFIT
TMUS-43.9%+318.0%-361.8%-13.8 pts304INCONCLUSIVE
TRI-66.4%+578.4%-644.9%-15.1 pts422OVERFIT
TSLA+453.0%+23002.8%-22549.8%-4.0 pts262INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO-78.8%+5509.7%-5588.5%-15.2 pts472OVERFIT
TXN-81.0%+38040.6%-38121.7%before 1993862OVERFIT
VRTX-24.8%+12000.4%-12025.2%before 1993564OVERFIT
WBD-5.7%+302.2%-307.9%-11.4 pts330OVERFIT
WDAY-44.0%+305.5%-349.5%-18.9 pts204INCONCLUSIVE
WDC-53.4%+66202.2%-66255.6%before 1993734OVERFIT
XEL-49.5%+7388.9%-7438.5%before 1993884OVERFIT
A+36.1%+486.3%-450.2%-7.2 pts430OVERFIT
ABBV-2.0%+1156.0%-1158.0%-15.0 pts222INCONCLUSIVE
ABT-72.4%+62056.2%-62128.5%before 1993736OVERFIT
ACGL-15.2%+4268.0%-4283.3%-11.1 pts524OVERFIT
ACN-49.1%+1726.5%-1775.6%-12.2 pts426OVERFIT
ADM-57.4%+9265.6%-9323.1%before 1993732OVERFIT
AEE-47.3%+813.9%-861.2%-11.5 pts452OVERFIT
AES-51.0%+647.5%-698.5%before 1993540OVERFIT
AFL-66.9%+205848.4%-205915.3%before 1993734OVERFIT
AIG-36.4%+468.3%-504.6%before 1993788OVERFIT
AIZ-49.1%+1585.5%-1634.6%-13.8 pts398OVERFIT
AJG-28.9%+41899.5%-41928.4%before 1993704OVERFIT
AKAM+31.9%-25.2%+57.1%-7.5 pts394OVERFIT
ALB-87.5%+3091.3%-3178.9%-17.1 pts530OVERFIT
ALGN-50.7%+846.9%-897.6%-11.6 pts454OVERFIT
ALL-72.5%+3674.2%-3746.7%-14.6 pts544OVERFIT
ALLE+1.2%+265.9%-264.7%-13.9 pts202INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR-23.4%+100.6%-124.0%-16.9 pts206INCONCLUSIVE
AME-52.7%+25325.0%-25377.8%before 1993686OVERFIT
AMP-39.6%+2154.1%-2193.7%-13.5 pts336OVERFIT
AMT+77.8%+1310.2%-1232.4%-7.0 pts440OVERFIT
ANET-55.2%+5592.8%-5648.0%-20.1 pts222INCONCLUSIVE
AON-3.8%+29815.0%-29818.9%before 1993698OVERFIT
AOS+39.8%+13924.9%-13885.1%before 1993670OVERFIT
APA-95.2%+2417.2%-2512.4%before 1993742OVERFIT
APD-54.0%+20722.2%-20776.2%before 1993728OVERFIT
APH-24.3%+146951.6%-146975.9%before 1993620OVERFIT
APO+46.4%+1845.9%-1799.5%-11.5 pts258INCONCLUSIVE
APTV+28.2%+174.0%-145.8%-13.5 pts236INCONCLUSIVE
ARE-25.6%+624.3%-649.9%-10.7 pts500OVERFIT
ARES+4.3%+1191.9%-1187.5%-13.6 pts228INCONCLUSIVE
ATO-56.7%+13696.4%-13753.1%before 1993720OVERFIT
AVB-21.4%+42.3%-63.7%-17.6 pts132INCONCLUSIVE
AVY-67.3%+8544.4%-8611.7%before 1993856OVERFIT
AWK-50.9%+950.9%-1001.8%-15.6 pts322INCONCLUSIVE
AZO-41.7%+40631.8%-40673.5%before 1993578OVERFIT
BAC-15.7%+4053.1%-4068.8%before 1993792OVERFIT
BALL-57.9%+49568.6%-49626.4%before 1993860OVERFIT
BAX-80.0%+1778.4%-1858.4%before 1993732OVERFIT
BBY+445.5%+89506.6%-89061.2%before 1993588OVERFIT
BDX-63.4%+21440.4%-21503.8%before 1993866OVERFIT
BEN+407.4%+130378.8%-129971.3%before 1993666OVERFIT
BF-B-76.0%+14873.5%-14949.5%before 1993824OVERFIT
BG-14.7%+1105.5%-1120.2%-10.2 pts364OVERFIT
BIIB-57.0%+6832.8%-6889.7%before 1993530OVERFIT
BLDR-31.9%+393.7%-425.6%-13.0 pts354OVERFIT
BLK-51.5%+13724.5%-13776.0%-11.4 pts464OVERFIT
BMY-82.3%+23662.6%-23744.9%before 1993912OVERFIT
BNY-44.6%+32230.3%-32275.0%before 1993836OVERFIT
BR-32.3%+1234.2%-1266.5%-13.0 pts292INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B-2.9%+2072.5%-2075.4%-10.5 pts422OVERFIT
BRO+3.0%+76212.8%-76209.8%before 1993686OVERFIT
BSX-67.8%+1028.2%-1096.0%before 1993536OVERFIT
BX+43.8%+1023.3%-979.6%-8.9 pts316INCONCLUSIVE
BXP-42.5%+888.9%-931.5%-11.4 pts448OVERFIT
C-62.3%+1897.9%-1960.2%before 1993784OVERFIT
CAH+36.8%+39284.8%-39247.9%before 1993684OVERFIT
CARRn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+29.5%+80461.2%-80431.7%before 1993706OVERFIT
CB-55.5%+6587.6%-6643.1%-13.2 pts534OVERFIT
CBOE-33.4%+1060.1%-1093.5%-17.1 pts304INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE-59.2%+2283.8%-2343.1%-14.9 pts356OVERFIT
CCI-29.8%+899.9%-929.7%-10.3 pts418OVERFIT
CCL-58.0%+1154.4%-1212.4%before 1993570OVERFIT
CDW+23.1%+858.2%-835.1%-12.9 pts212INCONCLUSIVE
CF-55.2%+5815.9%-5871.2%-14.8 pts380OVERFIT
CFG-3.4%+349.9%-353.3%-14.1 pts186INCONCLUSIVE
CHD-62.9%+93736.5%-93799.5%before 1993794OVERFIT
CHRW-50.4%+4307.6%-4358.1%-11.8 pts464OVERFIT
CHTR+7.0%+335.5%-328.6%-13.7 pts276INCONCLUSIVE
CI-41.9%+12980.8%-13022.8%before 1993706OVERFIT
CIEN-81.8%+195.6%-277.3%-15.4 pts488OVERFIT
CINF-28.1%+41545.9%-41574.0%before 1993808OVERFIT
CL-85.3%+20919.0%-21004.3%before 1993886OVERFIT
CLX-86.4%+6184.2%-6270.6%before 1993918OVERFIT
CME+4.8%+6884.2%-6879.3%-11.2 pts376OVERFIT
CMG-34.0%+4221.6%-4255.6%-13.1 pts326OVERFIT
CMI-6.0%+28968.2%-28974.3%before 1993810OVERFIT
CMS-37.5%+630.8%-668.3%before 1993854OVERFIT
CNC+10.3%+4388.8%-4378.5%-9.7 pts424OVERFIT
CNP-29.4%+13998.0%-14027.4%before 19931066OVERFIT
COF-76.6%+5724.6%-5801.1%-15.6 pts506OVERFIT
COHR-83.4%+68288.9%-68372.3%before 1993608OVERFIT
COINn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO-35.6%+879.8%-915.5%before 1993658OVERFIT
COP-83.4%+13561.7%-13645.1%before 1993702OVERFIT
COR+2.4%+17062.1%-17059.7%-10.9 pts532OVERFIT
CPAY-34.6%+1383.7%-1418.3%-17.0 pts232INCONCLUSIVE
CPT-30.0%+2453.9%-2484.0%-12.0 pts518OVERFIT
CRH-78.5%+7617.9%-7696.4%before 1993578OVERFIT
CRL-50.3%+1210.2%-1260.5%-11.1 pts420OVERFIT
CSGP-24.4%+3390.6%-3415.0%-9.8 pts484OVERFIT
CTSH-1.9%+35498.3%-35500.2%-9.1 pts454OVERFIT
CTVAn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS-63.9%+15658.6%-15722.5%before 1993880OVERFIT
D-45.6%+17762.4%-17808.0%before 1993776OVERFIT
DAL-44.8%+339.1%-383.9%-13.8 pts318INCONCLUSIVE
DD-70.7%+10113.6%-10184.4%before 1993908OVERFIT
DE-74.1%+101089.1%-101163.2%before 1993868OVERFIT
DECK-49.4%+7024.7%-7074.1%-12.8 pts538OVERFIT
DELL+7.3%+4059.8%-4052.5%-14.4 pts174INCONCLUSIVE
DG-57.5%+550.3%-607.7%-19.3 pts276INCONCLUSIVE
DGX-64.8%+9626.0%-9690.8%-13.6 pts502OVERFIT
DHI-76.1%+13111.0%-13187.2%before 1993536OVERFIT
DHR-35.2%+483557.2%-483592.5%before 1993740OVERFIT
DLR-61.6%+3540.7%-3602.3%-15.5 pts400OVERFIT
DLTR-64.1%+10731.5%-10795.6%-14.3 pts540OVERFIT
DOC-67.7%+6136.8%-6204.5%before 1993704OVERFIT
DOV-51.4%+29264.8%-29316.2%before 1993738OVERFIT
DOWn/a · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ-3.1%+5638.6%-5641.7%-11.2 pts378OVERFIT
DRI-69.9%+6998.7%-7068.6%-14.6 pts514OVERFIT
DTE-19.4%+35264.3%-35283.8%before 19931076OVERFIT
DUK-49.4%+16239.0%-16288.4%before 1993828OVERFIT
DVA-2.2%+4219.3%-4221.4%-10.7 pts494OVERFIT
DVN-70.0%+1411.9%-1482.0%before 1993672OVERFIT
EBAY+12.1%+14035.1%-14023.0%-8.9 pts428OVERFIT
ECHO+108.4%+227.3%-118.9%-7.3 pts254INCONCLUSIVE
ECL-56.3%+20174.1%-20230.4%before 1993868OVERFIT
ED+12.6%+45081.6%-45069.1%before 19931120OVERFIT
EFX-44.5%+77234.4%-77278.9%before 1993776OVERFIT
EG-61.3%+2975.7%-3037.0%-13.6 pts512OVERFIT
EIX-45.7%+14610.5%-14656.2%before 1993964OVERFIT
EL-21.4%+1551.3%-1572.8%-11.3 pts510OVERFIT
ELV-45.0%+2326.9%-2371.9%-12.6 pts410OVERFIT
EME-32.4%+59203.5%-59235.9%-12.4 pts512OVERFIT
EMR-64.5%+19839.1%-19903.6%before 1993848OVERFIT
EOG-41.5%+9279.7%-9321.2%before 1993554OVERFIT
EQIX+78.1%+240.5%-162.4%-6.2 pts414OVERFIT
EQR-27.3%+44.2%-71.5%-18.3 pts162INCONCLUSIVE
EQT-40.2%+19557.1%-19597.3%before 1993732OVERFIT
ERIE-16.3%+3362.8%-3379.1%-11.2 pts500OVERFIT
ES-57.5%+2960.1%-3017.6%before 1993886OVERFIT
ESS-45.9%+5274.8%-5320.7%-13.0 pts550OVERFIT
ETN-41.2%+116541.5%-116582.7%before 1993866OVERFIT
ETR-66.5%+19797.9%-19864.5%before 1993860OVERFIT
EVRG-57.0%+5086.7%-5143.7%before 1993862OVERFIT
EW-11.4%+6500.0%-6511.4%-8.7 pts452OVERFIT
EXEn/a · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD+16.9%+148324.6%-148307.7%before 1993698OVERFIT
EXPE-39.0%+916.1%-955.2%-13.4 pts322OVERFIT
EXR-49.2%+2698.9%-2748.1%-14.3 pts380OVERFIT
F-45.6%+6752.4%-6797.9%before 1993862OVERFIT
FCX-52.9%+1061.6%-1114.5%-13.1 pts522OVERFIT
FDS-34.5%+9088.9%-9123.4%-11.7 pts510OVERFIT
FDX-45.1%+53776.9%-53822.0%before 1993736OVERFIT
FDXFn/a · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE-60.2%+563.0%-623.2%-12.6 pts478OVERFIT
FFIV-82.3%+5374.0%-5456.3%-14.7 pts454OVERFIT
FICO-28.3%+94747.8%-94776.1%before 1993636OVERFIT
FIS-38.9%+363.8%-402.7%-11.4 pts384OVERFIT
FITB+10.5%+28280.0%-28269.5%before 1993726OVERFIT
FIX-50.4%+11966.2%-12016.6%-11.9 pts460OVERFIT
FLEX-84.8%+7898.6%-7983.4%-16.6 pts490OVERFIT
FOXn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT-85.7%+24360.2%-24446.0%before 1993908OVERFIT
FSLR-58.9%+716.1%-775.0%-15.4 pts310OVERFIT
FTV-23.7%+100.1%-123.9%-18.1 pts164INCONCLUSIVE
GD-55.5%+221689.9%-221745.3%before 19931068OVERFIT
GDDY-39.6%+389.4%-429.0%-18.4 pts170INCONCLUSIVE
GE-40.4%+54356.2%-54396.6%before 1993976OVERFIT
GEN-74.1%+12085.6%-12159.7%before 1993625OVERFIT
GEVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS-62.0%+15015.5%-15077.5%before 1993776OVERFIT
GL-42.8%+12680.6%-12723.4%before 1993750OVERFIT
GLW+0.4%+19301.2%-19300.8%before 1993716OVERFIT
GM-20.2%+240.1%-260.2%-15.9 pts232INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC+28.7%+2091.1%-2062.3%-13.0 pts266INCONCLUSIVE
GPC-36.3%+12785.5%-12821.8%before 1993744OVERFIT
GPN-47.2%+2567.9%-2615.1%-11.5 pts394OVERFIT
GRMN-70.7%+5377.3%-5448.0%-13.6 pts456OVERFIT
GWW+65.8%+55300.2%-55234.3%before 1993888OVERFIT
HAL-85.2%+2860.8%-2946.0%before 1993804OVERFIT
HAS-38.2%+201529.8%-201568.0%before 1993782OVERFIT
HBAN-67.9%+3799.5%-3867.4%before 1993728OVERFIT
HCA-48.7%+1699.7%-1748.4%-18.4 pts278INCONCLUSIVE
HIG-61.1%+951.1%-1012.2%-13.5 pts538OVERFIT
HII+26.6%+883.6%-857.1%-12.7 pts262INCONCLUSIVE
HLT-23.2%+659.1%-682.4%-16.2 pts206INCONCLUSIVE
HOODn/a · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+15.7%+625.0%-609.4%-13.5 pts164INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ-80.4%+77945.5%-78025.9%before 19931080OVERFIT
HRL-56.6%+19046.1%-19102.7%before 1993758OVERFIT
HSIC-34.2%+1913.1%-1947.3%-11.9 pts468OVERFIT
HST-79.4%+12843.9%-12923.3%before 1993696OVERFIT
HSY-75.2%+53964.6%-54039.8%before 1993814OVERFIT
HUBB-53.5%+3853.5%-3907.0%-13.4 pts524OVERFIT
HUM-54.8%+20168.9%-20223.7%before 1993738OVERFIT
HWMn/a · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR+4.1%+1526.1%-1522.0%-10.6 pts334INCONCLUSIVE
ICE-35.2%+2307.9%-2343.0%-13.3 pts342OVERFIT
IEX-50.5%+12761.2%-12811.7%before 1993678OVERFIT
IFF-62.4%+4754.9%-4817.3%before 1993804OVERFIT
INCY+17.6%+6471.7%-6454.1%-10.4 pts522OVERFIT
INVHn/a · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP-74.8%+4590.1%-4665.0%before 1993966OVERFIT
IQV-3.0%+520.3%-523.3%-14.5 pts196INCONCLUSIVE
IRn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+31.4%+9911.6%-9880.1%-9.4 pts490OVERFIT
IT-48.4%+6431.0%-6479.4%-12.8 pts568OVERFIT
ITW-70.6%+51254.1%-51324.7%before 1993872OVERFIT
IVZ-75.5%+1093.8%-1169.3%-15.1 pts478OVERFIT
J+47.4%+33544.7%-33497.3%before 1993708OVERFIT
JBHT-33.1%+24926.6%-24959.8%before 1993686OVERFIT
JBL-37.6%+41217.7%-41255.3%-12.3 pts538OVERFIT
JCI-17.8%+4376.5%-4394.2%before 1993614OVERFIT
JKHY-58.3%+71288.2%-71346.6%before 1993668OVERFIT
KEY-57.8%+1405.6%-1463.4%before 1993618OVERFIT
KEYS-24.9%+1042.3%-1067.2%-16.7 pts206INCONCLUSIVE
KIM-34.8%+3036.5%-3071.3%before 1993580OVERFIT
KKR-34.9%+1784.9%-1819.7%-17.4 pts294INCONCLUSIVE
KMB-68.9%+16039.9%-16108.8%before 1993774OVERFIT
KMI-22.9%+117.5%-140.3%-15.6 pts218INCONCLUSIVE
KR-7.4%+182706.1%-182713.5%before 19931044OVERFIT
KVUEn/a · history < 10y (3.3y)
L-60.9%+22398.8%-22459.7%before 1993762OVERFIT
LDOS-32.6%+530.2%-562.9%-13.1 pts290OVERFIT
LEN-40.6%+29032.9%-29073.5%before 1993708OVERFIT
LH-72.2%+1408.2%-1480.5%before 1993650OVERFIT
LHX-66.7%+8519.5%-8586.2%before 1993716OVERFIT
LII-38.6%+3122.4%-3161.0%-10.3 pts456OVERFIT
LLY-26.6%+129720.0%-129746.6%before 1993872OVERFIT
LMT-58.7%+67444.7%-67503.3%before 19931038OVERFIT
LNT-62.6%+9408.5%-9471.1%before 1993852OVERFIT
LOW+96.2%+77328.4%-77232.2%before 1993704OVERFIT
LULU+2.3%+759.0%-756.7%-11.0 pts298INCONCLUSIVE
LUV-84.8%+24508.5%-24593.3%before 1993764OVERFIT
LVS+29.0%+50.3%-21.4%-9.7 pts294OVERFIT
LYB-52.2%+648.8%-701.0%-18.5 pts272INCONCLUSIVE
LYV-62.3%+1558.0%-1620.3%-15.7 pts326OVERFIT
MA+4.1%+14066.9%-14062.9%-11.1 pts330OVERFIT
MAA-17.1%+3525.2%-3542.2%-11.4 pts532OVERFIT
MAS-22.7%+7423.1%-7445.8%before 1993664OVERFIT
MCK-29.1%+6946.5%-6975.6%-12.2 pts562OVERFIT
MCO-56.5%+7753.9%-7810.4%-13.6 pts564OVERFIT
MDT-68.8%+51421.0%-51489.8%before 1993864OVERFIT
MET-49.1%+1176.9%-1226.0%-10.8 pts386OVERFIT
MGM+142.7%+1501.4%-1358.7%before 1993572OVERFIT
MKC-52.2%+14401.8%-14454.1%before 1993830OVERFIT
MLM-28.2%+3089.6%-3117.7%-11.9 pts524OVERFIT
MO-26.7%+2914781.4%-2914808.1%before 19931034OVERFIT
MOS-60.0%+268.9%-328.9%before 1993584OVERFIT
MPC-10.3%+2972.8%-2983.0%-15.3 pts276INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAn/a · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH-53.5%+21192.9%-21246.4%before 1993888OVERFIT
MS-48.9%+6159.1%-6208.0%-12.9 pts568OVERFIT
MSCI-51.2%+2406.7%-2457.9%-15.0 pts298INCONCLUSIVE
MSI-57.1%+79243.2%-79300.3%before 19931048OVERFIT
MTB+50.1%+105049.8%-104999.8%before 1993782OVERFIT
MTD+16.8%+9346.3%-9329.5%-8.9 pts490OVERFIT
NCLH-57.1%-34.9%-22.2%-20.8 pts194INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ+22.4%+2371.2%-2348.8%-10.1 pts414OVERFIT
NDSN-38.1%+37769.3%-37807.4%before 1993770OVERFIT
NEE+36.6%+23772.9%-23736.3%before 1993928OVERFIT
NEM-85.0%+2099.8%-2184.8%before 1993734OVERFIT
NI-25.3%+5234.9%-5260.2%before 1993852OVERFIT
NOC-17.9%+23369.3%-23387.2%before 1993710OVERFIT
NOW+19.9%+2907.9%-2888.0%-13.6 pts219INCONCLUSIVE
NRG-27.9%+1442.6%-1470.4%-12.5 pts370OVERFIT
NSC-74.8%+24520.7%-24595.5%before 1993772OVERFIT
NTAP-63.9%+19659.8%-19723.7%-13.8 pts494OVERFIT
NTRS+66.7%+53074.8%-53008.1%before 1993786OVERFIT
NUE-35.7%+70209.1%-70244.8%before 1993736OVERFIT
NVR+13.1%+61512.0%-61498.9%-10.5 pts544OVERFIT
NWS+26.6%+152.4%-125.8%-12.6 pts190INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA-18.2%+122.2%-140.4%-15.9 pts190INCONCLUSIVE
O-58.6%+5366.4%-5425.0%-13.8 pts556OVERFIT
OKE-74.1%+19101.6%-19175.7%before 1993704OVERFIT
OMC-69.5%+15677.5%-15747.0%before 1993748OVERFIT
ON-22.1%+208.7%-230.8%-9.4 pts422OVERFIT
ORCL-51.4%+296729.4%-296780.8%before 1993664OVERFIT
OTISn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY-88.3%+3580.0%-3668.3%before 1993728OVERFIT
PCG-26.4%+1389.7%-1416.0%before 1993886OVERFIT
PEG-41.2%+18884.4%-18925.6%before 1993780OVERFIT
PFE-73.2%+20062.7%-20135.9%before 1993906OVERFIT
PFG-74.9%+920.1%-995.0%-15.6 pts396OVERFIT
PGR-49.4%+819581.9%-819631.3%before 1993754OVERFIT
PH-24.2%+41129.4%-41153.7%before 1993738OVERFIT
PHM-48.3%+95847.7%-95896.0%before 1993772OVERFIT
PLD-55.2%+1782.5%-1837.7%-12.1 pts508OVERFIT
PM-27.9%+785.7%-813.6%-14.0 pts274INCONCLUSIVE
PNC-53.0%+37937.9%-37990.8%before 1993806OVERFIT
PNR+5.7%+11510.8%-11505.2%before 1993832OVERFIT
PNW-48.3%+2247.6%-2295.9%before 1993842OVERFIT
PODD-13.8%+831.5%-845.2%-11.6 pts304INCONCLUSIVE
PPG-27.0%+21327.4%-21354.4%before 1993710OVERFIT
PPL+34.7%+7311.8%-7277.1%before 1993726OVERFIT
PRU-64.8%+767.8%-832.6%-14.2 pts402OVERFIT
PSA-58.9%+13958.7%-14017.6%before 1993754OVERFIT
PSKY-68.2%-34.8%-33.4%-16.5 pts320OVERFIT
PSX-7.9%+1071.7%-1079.5%-15.2 pts226INCONCLUSIVE
PTC-82.7%+8443.5%-8526.2%before 1993566OVERFIT
PWR-29.8%+8155.1%-8184.9%-10.4 pts468OVERFIT
Qn/a · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL-47.6%+4611.6%-4659.2%-12.8 pts556OVERFIT
REG-54.3%+2046.5%-2100.8%-13.2 pts546OVERFIT
RF-70.7%+7230.0%-7300.7%before 1993720OVERFIT
RJF-46.0%+52691.1%-52737.1%before 1993674OVERFIT
RL-78.6%+1376.9%-1455.6%-14.7 pts472OVERFIT
RMD+18.1%+43254.4%-43236.2%-10.3 pts516OVERFIT
ROK-67.3%+57325.7%-57393.1%before 1993712OVERFIT
ROL-73.9%+36503.9%-36577.8%before 1993768OVERFIT
RSG-44.1%+1977.7%-2021.8%-10.9 pts474OVERFIT
RTX-50.6%+231131.9%-231182.5%before 19931050OVERFIT
RVTY-54.8%+25547.2%-25602.0%before 1993839OVERFIT
SBAC-25.3%+2259.6%-2284.9%-9.6 pts456OVERFIT
SCHW+22.9%+45501.9%-45479.0%before 1993632OVERFIT
SJM-70.6%+1119.0%-1189.5%-14.8 pts495OVERFIT
SLB-67.9%+1125.4%-1193.3%before 1993656OVERFIT
SMCI-64.5%+4155.7%-4220.2%-16.3 pts308INCONCLUSIVE
SNA-79.5%+12522.0%-12601.5%before 1993790OVERFIT
SO-50.2%+32617.4%-32667.6%before 1993858OVERFIT
SOLVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG-38.5%+5330.6%-5369.0%-12.4 pts580OVERFIT
SPGI-66.3%+140503.3%-140569.6%before 1993908OVERFIT
SRE-74.4%+1463.0%-1537.4%-13.6 pts474OVERFIT
STE-24.0%+15491.4%-15515.4%before 1993556OVERFIT
STLD-47.1%+7831.8%-7878.9%-12.1 pts514OVERFIT
STT+254.4%+199686.1%-199431.7%before 1993738OVERFIT
STZ-22.7%+10007.0%-10029.6%before 1993564OVERFIT
SW+47.1%+775.0%-727.8%-9.9 pts262INCONCLUSIVE
SWK-82.0%+5887.9%-5969.9%before 1993718OVERFIT
SWKS-86.3%+1317.3%-1403.5%before 1993648OVERFIT
SYF-17.8%+325.2%-343.1%-15.6 pts184INCONCLUSIVE
SYK-18.3%+430371.4%-430389.8%before 1993770OVERFIT
SYY-57.7%+115885.9%-115943.7%before 1993846OVERFIT
T-34.8%+10219.8%-10254.5%before 1993656OVERFIT
TAP-52.3%+518.8%-571.0%before 1993770OVERFIT
TDG-13.5%+13285.3%-13298.8%-11.8 pts360OVERFIT
TDY+5.2%+7164.6%-7159.4%-8.2 pts416OVERFIT
TECH-84.9%+79246.8%-79331.7%before 1993588OVERFIT
TEL-8.6%+671.1%-679.6%-11.2 pts282INCONCLUSIVE
TFC-1.5%+10226.4%-10228.0%before 1993760OVERFIT
TGT-23.9%+90566.5%-90590.4%before 1993852OVERFIT
TJX-70.5%+36154.4%-36224.9%before 1993692OVERFIT
TKO+22.9%+1638.9%-1615.9%-8.0 pts448OVERFIT
TMO-28.4%+36784.3%-36812.7%before 1993760OVERFIT
TPL+1193.1%+75277.1%-74084.0%before 1993738OVERFIT
TPR-52.9%+7766.6%-7819.5%-11.5 pts418OVERFIT
TRGP-21.6%+2202.9%-2224.5%-15.9 pts262INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB-70.7%+3366.4%-3437.1%before 1993550OVERFIT
TROW+3.1%+35932.6%-35929.5%before 1993636OVERFIT
TSCO+158.0%+15199.0%-15041.0%-8.0 pts456OVERFIT
TSN-17.2%+4340.8%-4358.0%before 1993698OVERFIT
TT-24.4%+49748.2%-49772.6%before 1993768OVERFIT
TTDn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT-42.6%+4901.2%-4943.8%before 1993806OVERFIT
TYL+66.3%+43359.1%-43292.7%before 1993763OVERFIT
UAL-49.9%+240.6%-290.5%-14.5 pts294OVERFIT
UBERn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR-65.1%+14119.5%-14184.6%before 1993814OVERFIT
UHS+65.8%+15293.2%-15227.4%before 1993690OVERFIT
ULTA-49.6%+1721.3%-1770.9%-14.5 pts298INCONCLUSIVE
UNP-66.9%+30311.4%-30378.3%before 1993780OVERFIT
UPS-22.8%+233.2%-256.0%-9.5 pts396OVERFIT
URI-4.1%+7088.3%-7092.4%-9.5 pts460OVERFIT
USB+33.6%+44799.0%-44765.4%before 1993850OVERFIT
VEEV-37.3%+668.8%-706.1%-17.8 pts245INCONCLUSIVE
VICIn/a · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO-74.7%+23394.0%-23468.7%before 1993742OVERFIT
VLTOn/a · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+153.9%+48759.3%-48605.4%before 1993830OVERFIT
VRSK-37.9%+648.8%-686.7%-17.2 pts268INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN-48.0%+5322.0%-5370.1%-11.6 pts504OVERFIT
VRTn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR-48.2%+1496.8%-1545.1%-12.0 pts502OVERFIT
VTRS-69.8%+1568.8%-1638.6%before 1993742OVERFIT
VZ-54.1%+4889.1%-4943.2%before 1993640OVERFIT
WAB-71.0%+4137.7%-4208.7%-14.7 pts550OVERFIT
WAT-32.9%+10865.4%-10898.3%-11.8 pts474OVERFIT
WEC-54.7%+23656.8%-23711.4%before 1993754OVERFIT
WELL-21.6%+58774.1%-58795.8%before 1993756OVERFIT
WFC-64.5%+63452.2%-63516.8%before 1993898OVERFIT
WM+14.2%+8471.2%-8457.0%before 1993622OVERFIT
WMB-84.9%+11974.1%-12059.0%before 1993738OVERFIT
WSM-15.2%+69865.8%-69880.9%before 1993710OVERFIT
WST+91.9%+79208.6%-79116.7%before 1993782OVERFIT
WTW-37.4%+1181.6%-1219.0%-11.2 pts400OVERFIT
WY-78.0%+1781.4%-1859.4%before 1993814OVERFIT
WYNN+35.3%+1217.6%-1182.3%-10.1 pts352OVERFIT
XOM-81.8%+183657.9%-183739.7%before 19931038OVERFIT
XYL-21.3%+455.0%-476.4%-16.8 pts234INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ-18.2%+527.5%-545.8%-16.6 pts192INCONCLUSIVE
YUM-55.7%+4282.5%-4338.2%-12.1 pts462OVERFIT
ZBH-59.1%+292.2%-351.3%-13.2 pts400OVERFIT
ZBRA+0.6%+8617.7%-8617.0%before 1993558OVERFIT
ZTS-14.8%+179.3%-194.0%-15.8 pts190INCONCLUSIVE

Forex · 4 / 8 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 8

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
EUR/USD-4.8%-3.1%-1.7%-11.2 pts340OVERFIT
GBP/USD+2.6%-21.2%+23.8%-10.9 pts332OVERFIT
USD/JPY+9.9%+40.2%-30.3%-9.9 pts476OVERFIT
USD/MXN+3.7%+49.9%-46.2%-10.9 pts374OVERFIT
AUD/USD-9.6%-6.6%-2.9%-11.7 pts292OVERFIT
USD/CAD+4.0%+1.7%+2.3%-11.0 pts324OVERFIT
USD/CHF-2.9%-41.4%+38.5%-11.3 pts304OVERFIT
NZD/USD-6.3%-8.1%+1.8%-11.3 pts346OVERFIT

Crypto · 0 / 2 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 2

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Bitcoin+126.3%+17075.3%-16949.0%-8.9 pts298INCONCLUSIVE
Ethern/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin+200.4%+859.3%-659.0%-7.2 pts296INCONCLUSIVE
Solanan/a · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanon/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinn/a · history < 10y (8.8y)

And intraday?

5-minute to 4-hour bars, every asset from where intraday history exists (stocks 2016, forex 2003, crypto 2015), against holding that same asset. Difference versus buy-and-hold. No walk-forward (see protocol).

Asset5 min15 min1 hour4 hoursDaily
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.2%-1348.2%-1230.2%-659.0%
Solanan/an/an/an/an/a
Cardanon/an/an/an/an/a
Dogecoinn/an/an/an/an/a
EUR/USD-87.6%-81.3%-61.8%-15.4%-1.7%
GBP/USD-87.4%-79.9%-39.7%-17.3%+23.8%
USD/JPY-135.8%-123.9%-73.1%-38.1%-30.3%
AUD/USD————-2.9%
USD/CAD-136.6%-128.9%-75.8%-37.0%+2.3%
USD/CHF-85.0%-78.2%-24.5%+8.6%+38.5%
NZD/USD-82.5%-77.0%-63.4%-12.3%+1.8%
S&P 500 (SPY)-454.0%-452.4%-409.6%-372.5%-3112.7%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-705.1%-703.9%-658.7%-613.5%-1604.9%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-307.3%-306.4%-262.6%-223.4%-825.7%
Emergentes (EEM)-269.1%-267.9%-221.9%-184.4%-833.7%
Oro (GLD)-397.4%-395.8%-360.2%-310.1%-820.3%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-91.8%-90.8%-59.7%-11.7%-182.9%
AAPL-1349.6%-1348.0%-1295.3%-1257.0%-322728.8%
AMGN-379.1%-378.0%-330.3%-304.0%-187316.3%
AMZN-836.5%-834.7%-770.5%-724.8%-265220.5%
AXP-573.8%-572.3%-533.3%-492.3%-27087.2%
BA-166.5%-164.9%-114.8%-62.6%-108754.9%
CAT-1513.0%-1511.6%-1462.8%-1394.3%-172645.8%
CRM-339.5%-337.8%-302.9%-254.8%-6011.9%
CSCO-570.4%-569.8%-532.0%-491.9%-223003.0%
CVX-358.2%-357.5%-325.6%-299.1%-68087.7%
DIS-114.8%-113.1%-64.7%-64.2%-189779.2%
GOOGL-920.8%-919.5%-880.6%-860.3%-13472.9%
GS-723.2%-722.1%-680.3%-616.8%-2083.8%
HD-324.2%-323.3%-293.0%-255.3%-1985809.8%
HON-280.6%-279.3%-245.2%-210.5%-21131.0%
IBM-286.6%-285.1%-245.1%-220.5%-16240.8%
JNJ-357.5%-356.8%-325.5%-268.9%-445229.2%
JPM-742.2%-741.3%-714.8%-661.7%-34598.2%
KO-293.4%-292.8%-266.4%-229.2%-199394.4%
MCD-285.6%-284.7%-256.2%-235.4%-236759.0%
MMM-200.3%-199.1%-161.1%-123.6%-31218.8%
MRK-412.7%-411.7%-377.6%-329.4%-233452.8%
MSFT-1077.0%-1076.0%-1044.5%-974.5%-859546.8%
NKE-74.3%-73.0%-31.8%-9.2%-32062.8%
NVDA-27586.0%-27582.8%-27515.7%-27477.0%-587757.2%
PG-246.9%-245.9%-213.8%-198.1%-59755.4%
SHW-449.0%-447.7%-418.5%-385.9%-231838.9%
TRV-422.1%-421.0%-395.1%-346.6%-12222.8%
UNH-401.4%-400.6%-361.5%-293.8%-353413.2%
V-543.9%-542.8%-512.5%-480.2%-2994.0%
WMT-607.6%-606.8%-573.1%-543.1%-915361.8%
ABNBn/an/an/an/an/a
ADBE-317.0%-316.1%-280.0%-241.1%-147789.2%
ADI-814.6%-813.4%-773.8%-703.5%-81613.8%
ADP-441.3%-440.6%-401.4%-356.5%-74240.5%
ADSK-432.2%-430.4%-390.9%-372.8%-58130.2%
AEP-305.4%-304.7%-273.3%-240.3%-13829.1%
ALABn/an/an/an/an/a
ALNY-254.9%-253.5%-212.4%-140.1%-3326.6%
AMAT-2817.9%-2816.5%-2780.2%-2713.4%-665028.2%
AMD-16807.9%-16803.5%-16716.6%-16605.8%-14807.0%
APPn/an/an/an/an/a
ARMn/an/an/an/an/a
ASML-2158.7%-2157.6%-2115.3%-2078.3%-96351.2%
AVGO-3403.2%-3402.1%-3352.0%-3301.0%-32512.4%
AXON-3569.4%-3568.0%-3520.4%-3389.5%-122764.4%
BKNG-421.6%-419.5%-350.0%-357.9%-952.9%
BKRn/an/an/an/a-961.2%
CCEP-415.8%-414.8%-380.2%-343.6%-7140.5%
CDNS-1658.0%-1656.8%-1609.9%-1574.9%-16853.1%
CEGn/an/an/an/an/a
CMCSA-135.8%-135.3%-102.1%-62.2%-47120.4%
COST-707.4%-706.4%-671.4%-610.6%-12862.0%
CPRT-700.6%-699.7%-664.1%-575.4%-21598.4%
CRWDn/an/an/an/an/a
CSX-696.6%-695.6%-664.6%-632.5%-40492.7%
CTAS-1031.2%-1030.3%-997.7%-932.3%-123454.0%
DASHn/an/an/an/an/a
DDOGn/an/an/an/an/a
DXCM-462.8%-460.6%-404.4%-354.6%-3031.8%
EA————n/a
EXC-318.9%-318.3%-283.3%-263.7%-17776.5%
FANG-393.3%-391.4%-365.2%-308.5%-1460.1%
FAST-656.9%-655.8%-622.3%-602.4%-262343.0%
FERn/an/an/an/a-615.4%
FTNT-2745.6%-2745.2%-2709.4%-2638.4%-10230.6%
GEHCn/an/an/an/an/a
GILD-214.0%-212.4%-183.3%-134.8%-33664.9%
HONAn/an/an/an/an/a
IDXX-780.4%-778.5%-748.7%-715.9%-58835.2%
INTC-333.1%-332.3%-299.2%-232.0%-49279.3%
INTU-414.2%-413.1%-374.0%-334.4%-15436.2%
ISRG-612.6%-611.2%-573.4%-508.3%-18498.2%
KHC-56.8%-56.1%-31.6%+25.4%+23.2%
KLAC-3063.6%-3062.9%-3024.2%-2978.8%-289481.6%
LINn/an/an/an/a-10847.2%
LITE-4008.1%-4005.3%-3983.6%-3929.7%-5263.9%
LRCX-4481.4%-4479.7%-4441.6%-4395.0%-159870.1%
MAR-594.3%-591.6%-561.3%-485.9%-2560.1%
MCHP-391.6%-390.4%-337.2%-308.3%-42047.9%
MDLZ-182.0%-181.1%-153.9%-111.1%-506.3%
MELI-1800.1%-1799.3%-1754.2%-1680.7%-6938.8%
META-570.4%-568.0%-515.9%-513.2%-1457.8%
MNST-194.8%-194.0%-162.9%-122.1%-61880.6%
MPWR-2250.5%-2249.7%-2219.7%-2170.3%-15054.7%
MRVL-2679.8%-2679.1%-2631.7%-2610.6%-1637.8%
MSTR-743.9%-739.9%-574.0%-655.6%-433.9%
MU-6675.8%-6675.2%-6627.6%-6538.1%-70942.7%
NFLX-743.2%-741.6%-693.6%-624.1%-67690.3%
NXPI-300.5%-299.2%-267.8%-241.1%-1766.4%
ODFL-1063.8%-1062.6%-1006.8%-971.6%-36513.9%
ORLY-539.4%-538.5%-501.5%-465.9%-55254.8%
PANW-1299.9%-1299.2%-1275.9%-1167.1%-4202.7%
PCAR-580.1%-578.9%-535.5%-496.3%-57135.3%
PDDn/an/an/an/an/a
PEP-196.8%-196.3%-175.3%-137.8%-37829.2%
PLTRn/an/an/an/an/a
PYPL-155.8%-155.3%-126.0%-65.9%-72.5%
QCOM-438.6%-437.4%-361.6%-363.7%-50415.2%
REGN-155.2%-154.1%-123.8%-69.9%-3370.8%
ROP-244.2%-243.7%-211.1%-188.0%-26009.7%
ROST-465.7%-464.0%-432.5%-399.5%-55856.0%
SBUX-232.0%-230.4%-192.5%-171.6%-43075.0%
SHOP-5944.8%-5943.9%-5905.5%-5732.1%-8571.2%
SNDKn/an/an/an/an/a
SNPS-985.3%-984.5%-947.5%-915.8%-5528.6%
STX-3652.5%-3651.5%-3634.1%-3597.1%-15633.8%
TER-1857.0%-1856.3%-1805.8%-1745.1%-31383.7%
TMUS-489.7%-489.2%-450.3%-431.0%-361.8%
TRI-362.7%-361.1%-330.5%-308.8%-644.9%
TSLA-2341.6%-2336.8%-2189.2%-2061.6%-22549.8%
TTWO-688.9%-688.1%-652.9%-612.8%-5588.5%
TXN-637.7%-636.5%-595.2%-561.4%-38121.7%
VRTX-440.8%-439.7%-409.4%-384.3%-12025.2%
WBDn/an/an/an/a-307.9%
WDAY-263.3%-262.5%-223.6%-197.2%-349.5%
WDC-1171.5%-1170.6%-1143.0%-1108.4%-66255.6%
XEL-295.9%-295.3%-267.9%-230.6%-7438.5%
KDP-278.1%-277.2%-240.2%-215.7%-1142.8%
USD/MXN-134.9%-127.1%-118.8%-80.7%-46.2%
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18084.8%-18084.6%-17946.2%-16949.0%
Ether————n/a

2 / 472 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 472

What if I nudge the parameters? (on the index)

ParametersReturnSharpeMax DDVs. index
period 20, std_dev 2.0-31.7%-2.30-32.0%-3112.7%
period 20, std_dev 1.5-58.6%-1.32-61.9%-3139.7%
period 20, std_dev 2.5-4.0%-6.08-4.9%-3085.0%
period 10, std_dev 2.0-22.9%-3.18-23.4%-3103.9%
period 50, std_dev 2.0-20.0%-1.88-24.1%-3101.0%

A rule that only works at the exact textbook numbers and dies one notch away is not an edge: it is luck.

Out of sample and robustness (on the index)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Deflated Sharpe: 0.00 (< 0.95)

Robustness suite: MODERATE

By halves: First half did not beat (-11.6% vs +237.3%); Second half did not beat (-22.7% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.

Deflated Sharpe 0.0 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Receipt

Computed on 2026-09-10 · period: each asset from its first bar (1962-01-01 to 2026-08-31) · round-trip costs: stocks and index 10 bps, forex 2 bps, crypto 30 bps · artifact 0a2f2c1b7ca1 · Finaxion engine

By market

Each market's page, ordered by annual excess over the S&P 500. The first 6 are shown; the rest are in the sitemap. See all 6 markets

Sources for the claim

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Upper Bollinger band breakout: works in few markets. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 0a2f2c1b7ca1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/bollinger-breakout

Reproduce it with your own strategy