FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · The Turtles: 55-day breakout · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the Turtles: 55-day breakout work on IRM?

The Turtles: 55-day breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on IRM: -10.0 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
537.9%
Buy and hold
×100
CAGR
6.3%
Sharpe
0.20
Max drawdown
-51.8%
Trades
126
Out of sample
overfit
Years
31
1×10×100×112×1997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyIRM

Findings

  1. The Turtles: 55-day breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on IRM: -10.0 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -4.1 points a year.
  3. Total return +537.9% versus ×100 for buy-and-hold, with 126 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -51.8%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2011).
  7. It ranks #60 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 0712690e8935.

Exactly what was tested

Close above the prior 55-day high → entry. Close below the prior 20-day low → exit (original System 2). No pyramiding or ATR sizing: we test the signal alone.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding IRM over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on IRM → · Full page for The Turtles: 55-day breakout →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the Turtles: 55-day breakout work on IRM?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 0712690e8935. https://finaxion.app/en/research/donchian-55-breakout/irm

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.