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Finaxion Research · The Turtles: 55-day breakout · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the Turtles: 55-day breakout work on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones)?

The Turtles: 55-day breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones): -7.2 points a year over 34 years.

Total return
232.4%
Buy and hold
×32
CAGR
3.6%
Sharpe
0.09
Max drawdown
-75.7%
Trades
7439
Out of sample
—
Years
34
1×10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyCartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones)

Findings

  1. The Turtles: 55-day breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones): -7.2 points a year over 34 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -7.2 points a year.
  3. Total return +232.4% versus ×32 for buy-and-hold, with 7439 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -75.7%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2009).
  6. It ranks #106 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 0712690e8935.

Exactly what was tested

Close above the prior 55-day high → entry. Close below the prior 20-day low → exit (original System 2). No pyramiding or ATR sizing: we test the signal alone.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) → · Full page for The Turtles: 55-day breakout →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the Turtles: 55-day breakout work on Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones)?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 0712690e8935. https://finaxion.app/en/research/donchian-55-breakout/portfolio-spx

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.