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Finaxion Research · The Turtles: 55-day breakout · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the Turtles: 55-day breakout work on TKO?

The Turtles: 55-day breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on TKO: -4.4 points a year over 27 years.

Total return
493.0%
Buy and hold
×17
CAGR
6.9%
Sharpe
0.23
Max drawdown
-63.2%
Trades
102
Out of sample
overfit
Years
27
1×10×20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyTKO

Findings

  1. The Turtles: 55-day breakout does not beat buy-and-hold on TKO: -4.4 points a year over 27 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -1.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +493.0% versus ×17 for buy-and-hold, with 102 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -63.2%.
  6. It beat before 2013 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #38 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 0712690e8935.

Exactly what was tested

Close above the prior 55-day high → entry. Close below the prior 20-day low → exit (original System 2). No pyramiding or ATR sizing: we test the signal alone.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding TKO over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on TKO → · Full page for The Turtles: 55-day breakout →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the Turtles: 55-day breakout work on TKO?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 0712690e8935. https://finaxion.app/en/research/donchian-55-breakout/tko

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.