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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on ASML?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on ASML: -4.8 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
×275
Buy and hold
×964
CAGR
19.6%
Sharpe
0.58
Max drawdown
-62.9%
Trades
37
Out of sample
partly
Years
31
1×10×100×997×19961999200220052008201120142017202020232026
StrategyASML

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on ASML: -4.8 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +8.6 points a year.
  3. Total return ×275 versus ×964 for buy-and-hold, with 37 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -62.9%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #10 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ASML over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ASML → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on ASML?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/asml

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.