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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on DLTR?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on DLTR: -9.0 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
759.0%
Buy and hold
×108
CAGR
7.1%
Sharpe
0.24
Max drawdown
-75.9%
Trades
43
Out of sample
overfit
Years
31
1×10×100×146×19961999200220052008201120142017202020232026
StrategyDLTR

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on DLTR: -9.0 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -4.0 points a year.
  3. Total return +759.0% versus ×108 for buy-and-hold, with 43 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -75.9%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #140 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding DLTR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on DLTR → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on DLTR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/dltr

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.