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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on MAR?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on MAR: -4.8 points a year over 28 years.

Total return
664.5%
Buy and hold
×26
CAGR
7.4%
Sharpe
0.25
Max drawdown
-66.0%
Trades
31
Out of sample
partly
Years
28
1×10×19992001200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyMAR

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on MAR: -4.8 points a year over 28 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -1.5 points a year.
  3. Total return +664.5% versus ×26 for buy-and-hold, with 31 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -66.0%.
  6. It beat before 2012 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #92 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MAR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MAR → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on MAR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/mar

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.