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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on NVDA?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on NVDA: -3.0 points a year over 28 years.

Total return
×3 153
Buy and hold
×5 878
CAGR
34.0%
Sharpe
0.78
Max drawdown
-72.0%
Trades
27
Out of sample
overfit
Years
28
1×10×100×1000×5878×20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyNVDA

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on NVDA: -3.0 points a year over 28 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +25.2 points a year.
  3. Total return ×3 153 versus ×5 878 for buy-and-hold, with 27 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -72.0%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2012).
  7. It ranks #2 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding NVDA over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on NVDA → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on NVDA?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/nvda

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.