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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on NVR?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on NVR: -3.7 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
×224
Buy and hold
×616
CAGR
17.9%
Sharpe
0.60
Max drawdown
-52.5%
Trades
40
Out of sample
partly
Years
33
1×10×100×940×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyNVR

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on NVR: -3.7 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +7.0 points a year.
  3. Total return ×224 versus ×616 for buy-and-hold, with 40 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -52.5%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #18 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding NVR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on NVR → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on NVR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/nvr

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.