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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on NWSA?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on NWSA: -1.8 points a year over 13 years.

Total return
77.2%
Buy and hold
122.2%
CAGR
4.4%
Sharpe
0.11
Max drawdown
-38.1%
Trades
19
Out of sample
—
Years
13
0.6×1×1.4×2.2×2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyNWSA

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on NWSA: -1.8 points a year over 13 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -9.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +77.2% versus +122.2% for buy-and-hold, with 19 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -38.1%.
  5. It beat before 2020 and stopped afterwards.
  6. It ranks #208 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding NWSA over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on NWSA → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on NWSA?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/nwsa

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.