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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on ORLY?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on ORLY: -4.5 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
×157
Buy and hold
×554
CAGR
16.4%
Sharpe
0.56
Max drawdown
-44.2%
Trades
30
Out of sample
—
Years
33
1×10×100×648×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyORLY

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on ORLY: -4.5 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +5.5 points a year.
  3. Total return ×157 versus ×554 for buy-and-hold, with 30 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -44.2%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2009).
  6. It ranks #24 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ORLY over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ORLY → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on ORLY?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/orly

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.