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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on PM?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on PM: -8.1 points a year over 18 years.

Total return
123.8%
Buy and hold
785.7%
CAGR
4.5%
Sharpe
0.11
Max drawdown
-58.2%
Trades
37
Out of sample
—
Years
18
1×4.9×200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyPM

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on PM: -8.1 points a year over 18 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -7.8 points a year.
  3. Total return +123.8% versus +785.7% for buy-and-hold, with 37 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -58.2%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2017).
  6. It ranks #188 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding PM over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on PM → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on PM?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/pm

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.