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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on RL?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on RL: -6.6 points a year over 29 years.

Total return
141.0%
Buy and hold
×15
CAGR
3.1%
Sharpe
0.10
Max drawdown
-72.9%
Trades
43
Out of sample
overfit
Years
29
1×10×1998200120042007201020132016201920222025
StrategyRL

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on RL: -6.6 points a year over 29 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -6.5 points a year.
  3. Total return +141.0% versus ×15 for buy-and-hold, with 43 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -72.9%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2012).
  7. It ranks #176 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding RL over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on RL → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on RL?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/rl

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.