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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on SHOP?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on SHOP: -4.1 points a year over 11 years.

Total return
×63
Buy and hold
×87
CAGR
44.4%
Sharpe
0.94
Max drawdown
-51.2%
Trades
10
Out of sample
—
Years
11
1×10×100×102×20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategySHOP

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on SHOP: -4.1 points a year over 11 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +30.5 points a year.
  3. Total return ×63 versus ×87 for buy-and-hold, with 10 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -51.2%.
  5. It did not beat before 2021 and started afterwards.
  6. It ranks #1 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding SHOP over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on SHOP → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on SHOP?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/shop

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.