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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on SPG?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on SPG: -1.8 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
×32
Buy and hold
×54
CAGR
11.2%
Sharpe
0.42
Max drawdown
-56.3%
Trades
37
Out of sample
partly
Years
33
1×10×58×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategySPG

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on SPG: -1.8 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +0.3 points a year.
  3. Total return ×32 versus ×54 for buy-and-hold, with 37 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -56.3%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #72 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding SPG over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on SPG → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on SPG?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/spg

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.