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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · indices and ETFs · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on SPY?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on SPY: -1.4 points a year over 34 years.

Total return
×21
Buy and hold
×32
CAGR
9.5%
Sharpe
0.44
Max drawdown
-33.7%
Trades
31
Out of sample
partly
Years
34
1×10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategySPY

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on SPY: -1.4 points a year over 34 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -1.4 points a year.
  3. Total return ×21 versus ×32 for buy-and-hold, with 31 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -33.7%.
  6. It beat before 2009 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #90 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding SPY over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on SPY → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on SPY?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/spy

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.