FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · indices and ETFs · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on TLT?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on TLT: -2.1 points a year over 24 years.

Total return
41.1%
Buy and hold
131.2%
CAGR
1.4%
Sharpe
-0.18
Max drawdown
-27.3%
Trades
44
Out of sample
overfit
Years
24
0.9×1×2.4×200320052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyTLT

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on TLT: -2.1 points a year over 24 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -9.8 points a year.
  3. Total return +41.1% versus +131.2% for buy-and-hold, with 44 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -27.3%.
  6. It did not beat before 2014 and started afterwards.
  7. It ranks #205 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding TLT over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on TLT → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on TLT?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/tlt

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.