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Finaxion Research · The golden cross (50/200) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does the golden cross (50/200) work on WAB?

The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on WAB: -6.4 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
578.4%
Buy and hold
×42
CAGR
6.3%
Sharpe
0.21
Max drawdown
-68.0%
Trades
45
Out of sample
overfit
Years
31
1×10×42×19961999200220052008201120142017202020232026
StrategyWAB

Findings

  1. The golden cross (50/200) does not beat buy-and-hold on WAB: -6.4 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -4.4 points a year.
  3. Total return +578.4% versus ×42 for buy-and-hold, with 45 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -68.0%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2011).
  7. It ranks #147 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 8fb75dc6eee1.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA; flat when it is below. Next-close execution. No leverage, no stop.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding WAB over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on WAB → · Full page for The golden cross (50/200) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does the golden cross (50/200) work on WAB?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 8fb75dc6eee1. https://finaxion.app/en/research/golden-cross/wab

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.