FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Trend following · Updated 2026-09-10

Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles

Works in few markets

Its ground: stocks and indices, on daily, on a single asset — it beats in 8 of 961 combinations.

Markets beaten
8 / 489
Vs. index
-14.9 pts/yr
Total return
-74.8%
Sharpe
-0.63
Max drawdown
-83.8%
Trades
2173
10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyBuy and hold

Detail on the index (S&P 500), which is the reference for the chart, the robustness suite and the neighbours.

What works and what does not in Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles?

The strategy Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles does not work consistently in any asset class; it does least badly on single stocks: 8 of 904 (1%). It does worst on forex pairs: it beats in 0 of 40. Of the 8 daily markets where it beats, 2 hold out of sample (25%); it has aged in 46 markets, its best daily market is BTC/USD: +14.6 points a year over the S&P 500 across 12 years, 986 trades, and its worst is PYPL: -29.1 points a year against the S&P 500.

  1. There is no asset class where Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles works consistently; it does least badly on single stocks: 8 of 904 (1%).
  2. It does worst on forex pairs: it beats in 0 of 40.
  3. Of the 8 daily markets where it beats, 2 hold out of sample (25%).
  4. It has aged: in 46 markets it beat in the first half of the history and stopped in the second; the reverse happens in only 5.
  5. Its best daily market is BTC/USD: +14.6 points a year over the S&P 500 across 12 years, 986 trades.
  6. Its worst daily market is PYPL: -29.1 points a year against the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 2aad8ceec7e6.

The promise

“Heikin Ashi candles filter the noise: while they print green the trend is yours; the first red one, you’re out.”

Exactly what we tested

Long while the Heikin Ashi candle is bullish (HA close above HA open); exit on the first bearish candle.

Why

In every market

Indices and ETFs · 0 / 6 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 6

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (SPY)-74.8%+3081.0%-3155.8%-14.9 pts2173OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-73.0%+1565.8%-1638.9%-13.2 pts1777OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)-83.0%+801.9%-884.9%-15.2 pts1790OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)-49.1%+830.9%-880.0%-14.5 pts1717OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)-10.7%+820.3%-830.9%-11.5 pts1572OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-87.3%+131.2%-218.5%-19.5 pts1738OVERFIT

Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · max 10)-53.7%+3081.0%-3134.8%-13.1 pts34156

Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · max 20)+3.1%+3081.0%-3077.9%-10.8 pts73533

Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · max 25)-95.1%+3081.0%-3176.2%-19.5 pts100911

Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 8 / 470 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 8 / 216

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
AAPL-41.8%+322813.1%-322854.8%before 19932955OVERFIT
AMGN+459.3%+187272.6%-186813.3%before 19932838OVERFIT
AMZN+860.6%+265196.1%-264335.5%-1.7 pts1883OVERFIT
AXP-91.1%+27029.4%-27120.4%before 19933622OVERFIT
BA+537.8%+108724.7%-108186.9%before 19934106OVERFIT
CAT+15521.1%+172708.3%-157187.2%before 19933950OVERFIT
CRM+38.6%+5992.9%-5954.4%-9.5 pts1483OVERFIT
CSCO-70.9%+222956.6%-223027.5%before 19932442OVERFIT
CVX-78.6%+68037.6%-68116.2%before 19934195OVERFIT
DIS+875.0%+189847.3%-188972.3%before 19934024OVERFIT
GOOGL+799.4%+13534.3%-12734.9%-0.8 pts1347OVERFIT
GS-51.4%+2027.1%-2078.5%-11.1 pts1816OVERFIT
HD+883.6%+1985758.9%-1984875.3%before 19932834OVERFIT
HON-87.5%+21058.8%-21146.4%before 19934183OVERFIT
IBM-88.7%+16203.8%-16292.6%before 19934143OVERFIT
JNJ-64.7%+445196.6%-445261.3%before 19934214OVERFIT
JPM+23.5%+34522.5%-34499.0%before 19933067OVERFIT
KO+10.7%+199349.6%-199338.9%before 19934082OVERFIT
MCD+34.6%+236707.0%-236672.3%before 19933878OVERFIT
MMM-74.5%+31160.0%-31234.5%before 19934120OVERFIT
MRK-74.7%+233375.1%-233449.8%before 19934172OVERFIT
MSFT+123.0%+859506.0%-859382.9%before 19932655OVERFIT
NKE-53.9%+32003.7%-32057.5%before 19932945OVERFIT
NVDA+881.2%+587720.8%-586839.5%-0.1 pts1755OVERFIT
PG-83.2%+59706.6%-59789.8%before 19934130OVERFIT
SHW-83.7%+231766.6%-231850.2%before 19933098OVERFIT
TRV+1182.8%+12287.7%-11104.9%before 19933215OVERFIT
UNH+1266.2%+353381.4%-352115.2%before 19932664MARGINAL
V-25.9%+2961.1%-2987.0%-13.7 pts1289INCONCLUSIVE
WMT-46.9%+915365.3%-915412.3%before 19933576OVERFIT
ABNBn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+216.8%+147731.1%-147514.3%before 19932589OVERFIT
ADI-77.0%+81534.0%-81611.1%before 19933106OVERFIT
ADP-46.4%+74205.9%-74252.3%before 19933107OVERFIT
ADSK+12.7%+58084.6%-58071.8%before 19932659OVERFIT
AEP-18.3%+13797.6%-13815.9%before 19934223OVERFIT
ALABn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY+108.1%+3338.4%-3230.3%-7.7 pts1468OVERFIT
AMAT+160.1%+664974.8%-664814.7%before 19933056OVERFIT
AMD-58.5%+14863.3%-14921.7%before 19933046OVERFIT
APPn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMn/a · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML-46.5%+96277.5%-96324.0%-13.0 pts2270OVERFIT
AVGO+158.5%+32512.1%-32353.6%-9.0 pts1205INCONCLUSIVE
AXON+1409.9%+123065.2%-121655.3%+1.9 pts1612OVERFIT
BKNG-46.9%+922.2%-969.1%-10.9 pts1788OVERFIT
BKR-97.9%+933.9%-1031.7%before 19932665OVERFIT
CCEP-9.0%+7081.8%-7090.8%before 19932669OVERFIT
CDNS-77.4%+16839.0%-16916.4%before 19932559OVERFIT
CEGn/a · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA-61.7%+47049.9%-47111.6%before 19932955OVERFIT
COST-51.1%+12800.7%-12851.8%before 19932624OVERFIT
CPRT+199.9%+21554.9%-21355.0%-7.5 pts2117OVERFIT
CRWDn/a · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX-94.5%+40426.1%-40520.6%before 19932997OVERFIT
CTAS+116.5%+123411.3%-123294.8%before 19932919OVERFIT
DASHn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGn/a · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM+93.2%+3002.6%-2909.4%-8.1 pts1391OVERFIT
EAn/a · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC-41.2%+17730.6%-17771.8%before 19933502OVERFIT
FANG+51.3%+1406.8%-1355.5%-11.8 pts972INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+1384.0%+262350.7%-260966.7%before 19932438OVERFIT
FER+112.2%+593.7%-481.5%-9.3 pts368INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT+17.2%+10184.6%-10167.4%-13.2 pts1121INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCn/a · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+98.2%+33594.8%-33496.6%before 19932294OVERFIT
HONAn/a · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+98.7%+58789.5%-58690.8%before 19932239OVERFIT
INTC-56.2%+49216.9%-49273.0%before 19932989OVERFIT
INTU-82.1%+15430.2%-15512.2%-15.8 pts2201OVERFIT
ISRG+1599.3%+18484.9%-16885.6%+3.0 pts1712OVERFIT
KDP-53.1%+1090.2%-1143.3%-15.8 pts1241INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-66.6%-42.2%-24.4%-23.7 pts719INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC-24.9%+289399.1%-289424.0%before 19932976OVERFIT
LIN-94.5%+10777.0%-10871.5%before 19932411OVERFIT
LITE+216.5%+5280.9%-5064.5%-3.3 pts743INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX-50.5%+159814.6%-159865.1%before 19932754OVERFIT
MAR-89.6%+2539.5%-2629.2%-16.6 pts1896OVERFIT
MCHP-98.2%+41961.5%-42059.7%-22.1 pts2342OVERFIT
MDLZ-69.9%+461.4%-531.3%-14.1 pts1664OVERFIT
MELI+34.9%+6911.0%-6876.1%-9.6 pts1273INCONCLUSIVE
META-10.9%+1410.2%-1421.1%-16.0 pts935INCONCLUSIVE
MNST+1028.1%+61968.9%-60940.7%before 19932864MARGINAL
MPWR-63.7%+15002.1%-15065.8%-15.6 pts1474OVERFIT
MRVL-91.2%+1645.0%-1736.2%-17.4 pts1774OVERFIT
MSTR+5829.1%+1158.6%+4670.5%+6.6 pts1881OVERFIT
MU+342.3%+70877.8%-70535.5%before 19932778OVERFIT
NFLX+538.9%+67643.2%-67104.3%-2.4 pts1541OVERFIT
NXPI-61.8%+1721.2%-1782.9%-20.5 pts1130INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL-99.2%+36444.7%-36543.8%before 19932643OVERFIT
ORLY+527.7%+55255.7%-54728.0%-5.3 pts2200OVERFIT
PANW+476.7%+4215.4%-3738.7%-1.7 pts895INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+490.0%+57106.4%-56616.4%before 19932874OVERFIT
PDDn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP-96.9%+37760.7%-37857.6%before 19933706OVERFIT
PLTRn/a · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL-83.1%+44.7%-127.8%-29.1 pts784INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM-78.8%+50430.1%-50509.0%before 19932387OVERFIT
REGN+210.5%+3718.3%-3507.8%before 19932286OVERFIT
ROP+8.6%+26003.6%-25994.9%before 19932375OVERFIT
ROST+88.4%+55801.1%-55712.7%before 19932668OVERFIT
SBUX-94.4%+43019.5%-43114.0%before 19932337OVERFIT
SHOP+131.1%+8568.8%-8437.8%-6.2 pts751INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKn/a · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS-98.5%+5482.1%-5580.6%before 19932265OVERFIT
STX+1819.5%+15614.6%-13795.2%+1.9 pts1522OVERFIT
TER-21.7%+31309.8%-31331.5%before 19933512OVERFIT
TMUS-83.2%+318.0%-401.1%-19.7 pts1307INCONCLUSIVE
TRI-60.2%+578.4%-638.6%-14.4 pts1631OVERFIT
TSLA+280.0%+23002.8%-22722.8%-6.5 pts1045INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO+50.1%+5509.7%-5459.6%-8.7 pts1945OVERFIT
TXN-89.9%+38040.6%-38130.5%before 19933566OVERFIT
VRTX+243.7%+12000.4%-11756.8%before 19932350MARGINAL
WBD+14.1%+302.2%-288.0%-10.5 pts1371OVERFIT
WDAY-25.8%+305.5%-331.3%-16.9 pts907INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+491.8%+66202.2%-65710.4%before 19933001OVERFIT
XEL+69.7%+7388.9%-7319.2%before 19933424OVERFIT
A+20.0%+486.3%-466.3%-7.7 pts1803OVERFIT
ABBV+106.2%+1156.0%-1049.8%-9.4 pts870INCONCLUSIVE
ABT-79.2%+62056.2%-62135.4%before 19933054OVERFIT
ACGL-70.7%+4268.0%-4338.7%-14.4 pts2224OVERFIT
ACN-61.4%+1726.5%-1787.9%-13.3 pts1751OVERFIT
ADM-94.8%+9265.6%-9360.5%before 19933019OVERFIT
AEE-62.4%+813.9%-876.3%-12.7 pts1818OVERFIT
AES-13.2%+647.5%-660.6%before 19932280OVERFIT
AFL-52.4%+205848.4%-205900.8%before 19933120OVERFIT
AIG+553.0%+468.3%+84.8%before 19933330MARGINAL
AIZ-83.2%+1585.5%-1668.7%-18.5 pts1556OVERFIT
AJG+297.8%+41899.5%-41601.8%before 19932768OVERFIT
AKAM-77.7%-25.2%-52.5%-14.0 pts1769OVERFIT
ALB-73.7%+3091.3%-3165.0%-14.9 pts2206OVERFIT
ALGN+44.8%+846.9%-802.1%-7.4 pts1652OVERFIT
ALL-90.9%+3674.2%-3765.1%-17.8 pts2256OVERFIT
ALLE-42.8%+265.9%-308.7%-18.2 pts836INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR-65.6%+100.6%-166.2%-22.2 pts692INCONCLUSIVE
AME-91.7%+25325.0%-25416.7%before 19932887OVERFIT
AMP-59.4%+2154.1%-2213.4%-15.4 pts1422OVERFIT
AMT+166.8%+1310.2%-1143.4%-5.6 pts1856OVERFIT
ANET+59.3%+5592.8%-5533.5%-9.8 pts799INCONCLUSIVE
AON+23.2%+29815.0%-29791.9%before 19932980OVERFIT
AOS+1238.3%+13924.9%-12686.6%before 19932656OVERFIT
APA-96.0%+2417.2%-2513.2%before 19933198OVERFIT
APD-57.3%+20722.2%-20779.5%before 19933044OVERFIT
APH+158.8%+146951.6%-146792.7%before 19932308OVERFIT
APO+89.5%+1845.9%-1756.4%-9.8 pts1027INCONCLUSIVE
APTV+30.0%+174.0%-143.9%-13.4 pts976INCONCLUSIVE
ARE-59.6%+624.3%-683.8%-12.7 pts1842OVERFIT
ARES+167.2%+1191.9%-1024.6%-5.6 pts827INCONCLUSIVE
ATO-50.9%+13696.4%-13747.2%before 19932797OVERFIT
AVB-54.6%+42.3%-96.9%-22.8 pts709INCONCLUSIVE
AVY-85.1%+8544.4%-8629.5%before 19933456OVERFIT
AWK-50.6%+950.9%-1001.5%-15.6 pts1234INCONCLUSIVE
AZO+70.9%+40631.8%-40560.8%before 19932266OVERFIT
BAC+35.5%+4053.1%-4017.6%before 19933336OVERFIT
BALL+285.1%+49568.6%-49283.5%before 19933530MARGINAL
BAX-99.0%+1778.4%-1877.4%before 19933048OVERFIT
BBY+7352.5%+89506.6%-82154.1%before 19932612OVERFIT
BDX-79.4%+21440.4%-21519.8%before 19933514OVERFIT
BEN+425.1%+130378.8%-129953.6%before 19932727OVERFIT
BF-B-52.6%+14873.5%-14926.1%before 19932992OVERFIT
BG+43.4%+1105.5%-1062.2%-8.1 pts1611OVERFIT
BIIB-96.3%+6832.8%-6929.1%before 19932347OVERFIT
BLDR-62.8%+393.7%-456.6%-15.7 pts1382OVERFIT
BLK-52.4%+13724.5%-13776.9%-11.5 pts1779OVERFIT
BMY-90.3%+23662.6%-23753.0%before 19933600OVERFIT
BNY-82.0%+32230.3%-32312.3%before 19933433OVERFIT
BR-2.9%+1234.2%-1237.1%-11.2 pts1246INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B-50.5%+2072.5%-2123.1%-12.7 pts1961OVERFIT
BRO-65.1%+76212.8%-76277.9%before 19933550OVERFIT
BSX-75.0%+1028.2%-1103.2%before 19932312OVERFIT
BX+83.5%+1023.3%-939.8%-7.6 pts1231INCONCLUSIVE
BXP-83.0%+888.9%-972.0%-15.4 pts1844OVERFIT
C-66.6%+1897.9%-1964.5%before 19933272OVERFIT
CAH+873.3%+39284.8%-38411.5%before 19932725OVERFIT
CARRn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+27.8%+80461.2%-80433.5%before 19932776OVERFIT
CB-42.8%+6587.6%-6630.4%-12.5 pts2214OVERFIT
CBOE+69.9%+1060.1%-990.2%-11.3 pts1053INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE-88.4%+2283.8%-2372.2%-20.2 pts1464OVERFIT
CCI+217.5%+899.9%-682.4%-4.8 pts1852OVERFIT
CCL+8.8%+1154.4%-1145.5%before 19932576OVERFIT
CDW+19.4%+858.2%-838.8%-13.1 pts861INCONCLUSIVE
CF-24.8%+5815.9%-5840.7%-12.4 pts1426OVERFIT
CFG+20.0%+349.9%-329.9%-12.3 pts786INCONCLUSIVE
CHD+42.5%+93736.5%-93694.0%before 19932987OVERFIT
CHRW-79.2%+4307.6%-4386.9%-14.7 pts1897OVERFIT
CHTR-58.5%+335.5%-394.0%-19.3 pts1134INCONCLUSIVE
CI+80.2%+12980.8%-12900.7%before 19932784OVERFIT
CIEN-65.6%+195.6%-261.2%-13.4 pts1919OVERFIT
CINF+119.5%+41545.9%-41426.4%before 19932797OVERFIT
CL-98.2%+20919.0%-21017.2%before 19933688OVERFIT
CLX-96.6%+6184.2%-6280.7%before 19933514OVERFIT
CME+0.3%+6884.2%-6883.9%-11.3 pts1531OVERFIT
CMG+41.7%+4221.6%-4179.9%-9.4 pts1310OVERFIT
CMI+1422.4%+28968.2%-27545.8%before 19933334OVERFIT
CMS+820.8%+630.8%+190.0%before 19933274OVERFIT
CNC+13.9%+4388.8%-4374.9%-9.5 pts1628OVERFIT
CNP-57.9%+13998.0%-14055.9%before 19934182OVERFIT
COF-77.7%+5724.6%-5802.3%-15.7 pts2176OVERFIT
COHR-89.3%+68288.9%-68378.3%before 19932736OVERFIT
COINn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO+235.4%+879.8%-644.4%before 19932894OVERFIT
COP-77.4%+13561.7%-13639.1%before 19933024OVERFIT
COR+137.0%+17062.1%-16925.0%-8.2 pts2070OVERFIT
CPAY-17.8%+1383.7%-1401.5%-15.5 pts1050INCONCLUSIVE
CPT+6.2%+2453.9%-2447.7%-10.8 pts2118OVERFIT
CRH-84.0%+7617.9%-7701.9%before 19932410OVERFIT
CRL+42.7%+1210.2%-1167.5%-7.1 pts1711OVERFIT
CSGP+630.5%+3390.6%-2760.2%-1.5 pts1804OVERFIT
CTSH+26.1%+35498.3%-35472.2%-8.2 pts1903OVERFIT
CTVAn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS+175.7%+15658.6%-15483.0%before 19933420OVERFIT
D+112.7%+17762.4%-17649.7%before 19933008OVERFIT
DAL-24.5%+339.1%-363.6%-12.2 pts1296INCONCLUSIVE
DD-96.0%+10113.6%-10209.6%before 19933621OVERFIT
DE-26.1%+101089.1%-101115.2%before 19933524OVERFIT
DECK-50.5%+7024.7%-7075.2%-12.9 pts2316OVERFIT
DELL+423.9%+4059.8%-3635.8%+2.8 pts657INCONCLUSIVE
DG-82.3%+550.3%-632.6%-24.1 pts1125INCONCLUSIVE
DGX-20.9%+9626.0%-9646.9%-10.9 pts1951OVERFIT
DHI-95.6%+13111.0%-13206.6%before 19932414OVERFIT
DHR+9.8%+483557.2%-483547.4%before 19933193OVERFIT
DLR-58.8%+3540.7%-3599.5%-15.2 pts1407OVERFIT
DLTR-20.6%+10731.5%-10752.0%-11.8 pts2082OVERFIT
DOC-61.9%+6136.8%-6198.7%before 19932668OVERFIT
DOV+10.2%+29264.8%-29254.6%before 19933048OVERFIT
DOWn/a · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ-65.1%+5638.6%-5703.6%-15.8 pts1458OVERFIT
DRI-72.0%+6998.7%-7070.7%-14.8 pts2140OVERFIT
DTE-28.2%+35264.3%-35292.6%before 19934272OVERFIT
DUK+26.6%+16239.0%-16212.4%before 19933058OVERFIT
DVA+22.2%+4219.3%-4197.0%-10.0 pts2053OVERFIT
DVN-40.6%+1411.9%-1452.5%before 19932634OVERFIT
EBAY-36.7%+14035.1%-14071.8%-10.9 pts1826OVERFIT
ECHO-27.9%+227.3%-255.2%-13.1 pts1186INCONCLUSIVE
ECL-63.5%+20174.1%-20237.6%before 19933502OVERFIT
ED+331.8%+45081.6%-44749.8%before 19934090OVERFIT
EFX+22.8%+77234.4%-77211.6%before 19933064OVERFIT
EG-84.8%+2975.7%-3060.5%-16.5 pts2013OVERFIT
EIX-44.5%+14610.5%-14655.1%before 19933474OVERFIT
EL-87.5%+1551.3%-1638.8%-17.1 pts2085OVERFIT
ELV-17.4%+2326.9%-2344.3%-11.0 pts1636OVERFIT
EME+479.6%+59203.5%-58723.8%-5.5 pts2159OVERFIT
EMR-96.4%+19839.1%-19935.5%before 19933667OVERFIT
EOG-17.3%+9279.7%-9297.0%before 19932396OVERFIT
EQIX+688.3%+240.5%+447.8%-0.2 pts1695OVERFIT
EQR-60.1%+44.2%-104.3%-24.0 pts694INCONCLUSIVE
EQT+1017.2%+19557.1%-18540.0%before 19932945OVERFIT
ERIE-7.4%+3362.8%-3370.3%-10.8 pts2166OVERFIT
ES-83.4%+2960.1%-3043.5%before 19933550OVERFIT
ESS-57.9%+5274.8%-5332.7%-13.7 pts2078OVERFIT
ETN+507.2%+116541.5%-116034.2%before 19933463OVERFIT
ETR-38.9%+19797.9%-19836.8%before 19933498OVERFIT
EVRG-7.4%+5086.7%-5094.1%before 19933362OVERFIT
EW-32.1%+6500.0%-6532.1%-9.7 pts1742OVERFIT
EXEn/a · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD+282.5%+148324.6%-148042.1%before 19932895OVERFIT
EXPE+35.5%+916.1%-880.6%-9.6 pts1388OVERFIT
EXR+53.3%+2698.9%-2645.6%-9.4 pts1422OVERFIT
F+6.6%+6752.4%-6745.8%before 19933591OVERFIT
FCX+10.7%+1061.6%-1050.9%-10.3 pts2069OVERFIT
FDS+2096.4%+9088.9%-6992.5%+0.5 pts1895OVERFIT
FDX-69.6%+53776.9%-53846.5%before 19933140OVERFIT
FDXFn/a · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE-64.8%+563.0%-627.8%-13.1 pts1828OVERFIT
FFIV-44.2%+5374.0%-5418.2%-10.6 pts1803OVERFIT
FICO-88.4%+94747.8%-94836.2%before 19932613OVERFIT
FIS-86.3%+363.8%-450.1%-17.1 pts1672OVERFIT
FITB+684.8%+28280.0%-27595.2%before 19932896OVERFIT
FIX-85.8%+11966.2%-12052.0%-16.0 pts1977OVERFIT
FLEX+272.8%+7898.6%-7625.8%-6.8 pts2153OVERFIT
FOXn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT-89.3%+24360.2%-24449.6%before 19933544OVERFIT
FSLR+24.3%+716.1%-691.8%-9.9 pts1305OVERFIT
FTV-22.7%+100.1%-122.8%-18.0 pts692INCONCLUSIVE
GD+3236.0%+221689.9%-218453.9%before 19934042OVERFIT
GDDY-39.9%+389.4%-429.3%-18.4 pts748INCONCLUSIVE
GE-92.1%+54356.2%-54448.3%before 19934204OVERFIT
GEN-95.3%+12085.6%-12180.9%before 19932453OVERFIT
GEVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS-75.3%+15015.5%-15090.9%before 19933082OVERFIT
GL+7.8%+12680.6%-12672.8%before 19933005OVERFIT
GLW+141.7%+19301.2%-19159.5%before 19932917OVERFIT
GM-65.6%+240.1%-305.7%-21.0 pts1059INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC-60.9%+2091.1%-2152.0%-20.1 pts1094INCONCLUSIVE
GPC-88.1%+12785.5%-12873.6%before 19933115OVERFIT
GPN-52.1%+2567.9%-2620.0%-11.8 pts1718OVERFIT
GRMN+125.8%+5377.3%-5251.6%-5.7 pts1648OVERFIT
GWW+113.9%+55300.2%-55186.2%before 19933417OVERFIT
HAL-88.1%+2860.8%-2948.8%before 19933503OVERFIT
HAS+28.6%+201529.8%-201501.2%before 19933062OVERFIT
HBAN+21.1%+3799.5%-3778.5%before 19932948OVERFIT
HCA+29.1%+1699.7%-1670.6%-12.5 pts1058INCONCLUSIVE
HIG-43.3%+951.1%-994.4%-12.3 pts2044OVERFIT
HII+24.3%+883.6%-859.4%-12.8 pts973INCONCLUSIVE
HLT-8.2%+659.1%-667.4%-14.8 pts866INCONCLUSIVE
HOODn/a · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+66.8%+625.0%-558.2%-10.0 pts714INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ-70.9%+77945.5%-78016.4%before 19934176OVERFIT
HRL-88.5%+19046.1%-19134.6%before 19933110OVERFIT
HSIC+59.3%+1913.1%-1853.8%-9.0 pts1985OVERFIT
HST+196.0%+12843.9%-12647.9%before 19932954OVERFIT
HSY-80.3%+53964.6%-54044.9%before 19933028OVERFIT
HUBB+13.5%+3853.5%-3840.0%-10.7 pts2058OVERFIT
HUM+70.9%+20168.9%-20098.0%before 19932925OVERFIT
HWMn/a · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR-43.9%+1526.1%-1570.0%-13.7 pts1293INCONCLUSIVE
ICE-35.3%+2307.9%-2343.1%-13.3 pts1353OVERFIT
IEX+11.2%+12761.2%-12750.1%before 19932463OVERFIT
IFF-93.2%+4754.9%-4848.2%before 19933419OVERFIT
INCY+273.6%+6471.7%-6198.1%-6.8 pts2100MARGINAL
INVHn/a · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP-29.0%+4590.1%-4619.2%before 19934070OVERFIT
IQV+78.8%+520.3%-441.4%-9.8 pts883INCONCLUSIVE
IRn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+312.3%+9911.6%-9599.3%-5.6 pts1971OVERFIT
IT-65.7%+6431.0%-6496.7%-14.1 pts2239OVERFIT
ITW+483.5%+51254.1%-50770.5%before 19933420OVERFIT
IVZ-63.0%+1093.8%-1156.8%-13.9 pts2099OVERFIT
J-57.8%+33544.7%-33602.5%before 19933063OVERFIT
JBHT+71.9%+24926.6%-24854.7%before 19932786MARGINAL
JBL+576.6%+41217.7%-40641.1%-5.0 pts2161OVERFIT
JCI-66.6%+4376.5%-4443.1%before 19932545OVERFIT
JKHY-91.9%+71288.2%-71380.2%before 19932851OVERFIT
KEY-92.1%+1405.6%-1497.7%before 19932554OVERFIT
KEYS+63.7%+1042.3%-978.6%-10.1 pts773INCONCLUSIVE
KIM-63.3%+3036.5%-3099.8%before 19932216OVERFIT
KKR+128.0%+1784.9%-1656.9%-9.6 pts1087INCONCLUSIVE
KMB-86.7%+16039.9%-16126.6%before 19933088OVERFIT
KMI-44.2%+117.5%-161.7%-17.6 pts1029INCONCLUSIVE
KR+337.4%+182706.1%-182368.7%before 19934116OVERFIT
KVUEn/a · history < 10y (3.3y)
L+174.2%+22398.8%-22224.6%before 19932992OVERFIT
LDOS-50.4%+530.2%-580.7%-14.6 pts1301OVERFIT
LEN-67.2%+29032.9%-29100.1%before 19933022OVERFIT
LH-87.2%+1408.2%-1495.5%before 19932446OVERFIT
LHX+23.9%+8519.5%-8495.6%before 19932882OVERFIT
LII-67.3%+3122.4%-3189.7%-12.6 pts1760OVERFIT
LLY+124.1%+129720.0%-129595.9%before 19933484OVERFIT
LMT-5.7%+67444.7%-67450.4%before 19934122OVERFIT
LNT-60.0%+9408.5%-9468.4%before 19933410OVERFIT
LOW+2439.7%+77328.4%-74888.6%before 19932928OVERFIT
LULU+222.6%+759.0%-536.4%-4.8 pts1221INCONCLUSIVE
LUV-57.9%+24508.5%-24566.4%before 19933054OVERFIT
LVS+126.6%+50.3%+76.2%-7.0 pts1424OVERFIT
LYB-54.5%+648.8%-703.3%-18.8 pts1126INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+102.1%+1558.0%-1455.9%-7.6 pts1334OVERFIT
MA+298.1%+14066.9%-13768.8%-4.2 pts1378OVERFIT
MAA-79.8%+3525.2%-3604.9%-15.6 pts2110OVERFIT
MAS-21.1%+7423.1%-7444.2%before 19932938OVERFIT
MCK+95.2%+6946.5%-6851.3%-9.0 pts2006OVERFIT
MCO-22.2%+7753.9%-7776.1%-11.8 pts2069OVERFIT
MDT+12.2%+51421.0%-51408.8%before 19933412OVERFIT
MET-88.7%+1176.9%-1265.6%-16.2 pts1847OVERFIT
MGM+53.8%+1501.4%-1447.6%before 19932554OVERFIT
MKC+2345.0%+14401.8%-12056.9%before 19933162OVERFIT
MLM-65.3%+3089.6%-3154.9%-14.1 pts2150OVERFIT
MO+503.6%+2914781.4%-2914277.8%before 19934042OVERFIT
MOS-14.4%+268.9%-283.3%before 19932448OVERFIT
MPC+215.2%+2972.8%-2757.5%-6.7 pts995INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAn/a · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+171.7%+21192.9%-21021.2%before 19933406OVERFIT
MS-39.7%+6159.1%-6198.8%-12.4 pts2202OVERFIT
MSCI-64.3%+2406.7%-2471.0%-16.6 pts1255INCONCLUSIVE
MSI-78.1%+79243.2%-79321.3%before 19934181OVERFIT
MTB+2481.7%+105049.8%-102568.1%before 19932958OVERFIT
MTD+77.8%+9346.3%-9268.5%-7.4 pts1829OVERFIT
NCLH+33.2%-34.9%+68.1%-12.6 pts948INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ+230.4%+2371.2%-2140.8%-5.8 pts1557OVERFIT
NDSN+145.6%+37769.3%-37623.7%before 19933178OVERFIT
NEE+710.2%+23772.9%-23062.7%before 19933348OVERFIT
NEM-97.2%+2099.8%-2197.0%before 19933133OVERFIT
NI+8.8%+5234.9%-5226.1%before 19933364OVERFIT
NOC+98.9%+23369.3%-23270.4%before 19932935OVERFIT
NOW-36.1%+2907.9%-2944.1%-18.1 pts945INCONCLUSIVE
NRG-19.6%+1442.6%-1462.2%-12.0 pts1471OVERFIT
NSC-85.8%+24520.7%-24606.4%before 19932946OVERFIT
NTAP+285.1%+19659.8%-19374.6%-6.0 pts1963MARGINAL
NTRS-26.4%+53074.8%-53101.2%before 19932749OVERFIT
NUE+361.8%+70209.1%-69847.3%before 19932979OVERFIT
NVR+142.9%+61512.0%-61369.1%-8.1 pts2223OVERFIT
NWS-47.2%+152.4%-199.6%-19.1 pts915INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA-53.4%+122.2%-175.7%-20.0 pts901INCONCLUSIVE
O-78.8%+5366.4%-5445.2%-15.8 pts2116OVERFIT
OKE-1.0%+19101.6%-19102.6%before 19933005OVERFIT
OMC+380.0%+15677.5%-15297.5%before 19932888OVERFIT
ON-39.5%+208.7%-248.2%-10.3 pts1766OVERFIT
ORCL-84.2%+296729.4%-296813.7%before 19932753OVERFIT
OTISn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY-93.8%+3580.0%-3673.8%before 19933022OVERFIT
PCG-49.4%+1389.7%-1439.1%before 19933530OVERFIT
PEG+187.0%+18884.4%-18697.4%before 19932964OVERFIT
PFE-94.4%+20062.7%-20157.1%before 19933574OVERFIT
PFG-90.4%+920.1%-1010.6%-19.2 pts1658OVERFIT
PGR+9758.6%+819581.9%-809823.3%before 19932830OVERFIT
PH+106.4%+41129.4%-41023.1%before 19933008OVERFIT
PHM+230.7%+95847.7%-95617.0%before 19933006OVERFIT
PLD-49.5%+1782.5%-1832.1%-11.7 pts1838OVERFIT
PM+130.5%+785.7%-655.2%-7.6 pts1176INCONCLUSIVE
PNC+312.6%+37937.9%-37625.2%before 19933160OVERFIT
PNR+1067.4%+11510.8%-10443.5%before 19933294OVERFIT
PNW-15.7%+2247.6%-2263.2%before 19933390OVERFIT
PODD-38.6%+831.5%-870.1%-13.3 pts1270INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+16.1%+21327.4%-21311.4%before 19933030OVERFIT
PPL+40.9%+7311.8%-7270.9%before 19932974OVERFIT
PRU-87.3%+767.8%-855.1%-18.1 pts1692OVERFIT
PSA-84.6%+13958.7%-14043.3%before 19933030OVERFIT
PSKY+25.0%-34.8%+59.8%-10.0 pts1343OVERFIT
PSX+53.5%+1071.7%-1018.2%-11.6 pts927INCONCLUSIVE
PTC-96.7%+8443.5%-8540.1%before 19932447OVERFIT
PWR+976.7%+8155.1%-7178.4%-0.5 pts1849GENERALIZED
Qn/a · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL+553.6%+4611.6%-4058.0%-5.1 pts2142OVERFIT
REG-71.8%+2046.5%-2118.3%-14.6 pts2154OVERFIT
RF+143.8%+7230.0%-7086.2%before 19932842OVERFIT
RJF+239.7%+52691.1%-52451.4%before 19932743OVERFIT
RL-96.0%+1376.9%-1472.9%-20.0 pts2012OVERFIT
RMD+711.1%+43254.4%-42543.3%-3.9 pts2173OVERFIT
ROK-61.1%+57325.7%-57386.8%before 19933012OVERFIT
ROL-95.9%+36503.9%-36599.8%before 19933110OVERFIT
RSG-70.6%+1977.7%-2048.3%-13.1 pts1850OVERFIT
RTX-24.4%+231131.9%-231156.3%before 19934159OVERFIT
RVTY-89.8%+25547.2%-25637.0%before 19933491OVERFIT
SBAC+6445.1%+2259.6%+4185.5%+8.1 pts1777OVERFIT
SCHW+93.2%+45501.9%-45408.7%before 19932552OVERFIT
SJM-79.9%+1119.0%-1198.9%-16.0 pts2081OVERFIT
SLB-98.6%+1125.4%-1224.0%before 19933017OVERFIT
SMCI+24.5%+4155.7%-4131.2%-9.9 pts1234INCONCLUSIVE
SNA-60.2%+12522.0%-12582.2%before 19933474OVERFIT
SO-48.6%+32617.4%-32666.0%before 19932990OVERFIT
SOLVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG-76.6%+5330.6%-5407.2%-15.2 pts2140OVERFIT
SPGI-2.9%+140503.3%-140506.1%before 19933521OVERFIT
SRE-75.8%+1463.0%-1538.8%-13.8 pts1890OVERFIT
STE-77.6%+15491.4%-15569.0%before 19932254OVERFIT
STLD+11.8%+7831.8%-7820.1%-9.6 pts1975OVERFIT
STT+11893.4%+199686.1%-187792.7%before 19932823OVERFIT
STZ-78.0%+10007.0%-10085.0%before 19932272OVERFIT
SW-47.5%+775.0%-822.4%-15.5 pts710INCONCLUSIVE
SWK-92.4%+5887.9%-5980.3%before 19933123OVERFIT
SWKS-99.8%+1317.3%-1417.1%before 19932907OVERFIT
SYF-30.4%+325.2%-355.6%-16.9 pts860INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+5846.3%+430371.4%-424525.1%before 19932914OVERFIT
SYY-93.9%+115885.9%-115979.8%before 19933348OVERFIT
T-58.0%+10219.8%-10277.8%before 19932776OVERFIT
TAP-88.4%+518.8%-607.2%before 19933246OVERFIT
TDG+146.1%+13285.3%-13139.2%-6.5 pts1350OVERFIT
TDY-29.2%+7164.6%-7193.8%-9.7 pts1780OVERFIT
TECH-42.2%+79246.8%-79289.0%before 19932393OVERFIT
TEL+23.9%+671.1%-647.1%-9.7 pts1236INCONCLUSIVE
TFC-75.9%+10226.4%-10302.3%before 19933140OVERFIT
TGT-73.5%+90566.5%-90640.0%before 19933477OVERFIT
TJX-62.5%+36154.4%-36216.9%before 19932610OVERFIT
TKO+17.0%+1638.9%-1621.9%-8.2 pts1752OVERFIT
TMO-22.1%+36784.3%-36806.4%before 19933007OVERFIT
TPL+55324.7%+75277.1%-19952.4%before 19932962MARGINAL
TPR-79.0%+7766.6%-7845.6%-14.5 pts1804OVERFIT
TRGP+336.0%+2202.9%-1866.9%-4.5 pts1064INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB+181.1%+3366.4%-3185.3%before 19932305MARGINAL
TROW+53.6%+35932.6%-35879.0%before 19932684OVERFIT
TSCO+26.7%+15199.0%-15172.3%-10.2 pts2250OVERFIT
TSN-10.8%+4340.8%-4351.6%before 19932852OVERFIT
TT-10.3%+49748.2%-49758.4%before 19933033OVERFIT
TTDn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+143.7%+4901.2%-4757.5%before 19933406OVERFIT
TYL-98.7%+43359.1%-43457.8%before 19933331OVERFIT
UAL-1.7%+240.6%-242.3%-11.2 pts1376OVERFIT
UBERn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR-96.5%+14119.5%-14216.0%before 19933328OVERFIT
UHS+2005.3%+15293.2%-13287.9%before 19932902OVERFIT
ULTA-37.2%+1721.3%-1758.5%-13.4 pts1283INCONCLUSIVE
UNP-43.3%+30311.4%-30354.7%before 19933070OVERFIT
UPS-93.0%+233.2%-326.2%-18.0 pts1855OVERFIT
URI+3225.5%+7088.3%-3862.8%+3.6 pts1838OVERFIT
USB+888.2%+44799.0%-43910.7%before 19933090OVERFIT
VEEV-54.0%+668.8%-722.8%-20.1 pts857INCONCLUSIVE
VICIn/a · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO+62.4%+23394.0%-23331.6%before 19932871OVERFIT
VLTOn/a · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+2303.0%+48759.3%-46456.3%before 19933408OVERFIT
VRSK-46.8%+648.8%-695.6%-18.1 pts1163INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN+426.3%+5322.0%-4895.8%-3.3 pts1885OVERFIT
VRTn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR-54.5%+1496.8%-1551.4%-12.4 pts1870OVERFIT
VTRS-82.3%+1568.8%-1651.0%before 19932981OVERFIT
VZ-81.6%+4889.1%-4970.7%before 19932800OVERFIT
WAB-89.8%+4137.7%-4227.5%-17.8 pts2050OVERFIT
WAT+144.8%+10865.4%-10720.7%-7.5 pts2001OVERFIT
WEC+143.2%+23656.8%-23513.5%before 19932948OVERFIT
WELL-84.0%+58774.1%-58858.2%before 19933148OVERFIT
WFC-86.1%+63452.2%-63538.4%before 19933650OVERFIT
WM+125.8%+8471.2%-8345.5%before 19932482OVERFIT
WMB-42.3%+11974.1%-12016.4%before 19933043OVERFIT
WSM-52.1%+69865.8%-69917.8%before 19932917OVERFIT
WST+891.6%+79208.6%-78317.0%before 19932964OVERFIT
WTW-79.1%+1181.6%-1260.8%-15.4 pts1672OVERFIT
WY-97.4%+1781.4%-1878.7%before 19933564OVERFIT
WYNN-56.4%+1217.6%-1273.9%-14.8 pts1558OVERFIT
XOM-98.4%+183657.9%-183756.3%before 19934402OVERFIT
XYL-15.6%+455.0%-470.6%-16.4 pts974INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ+12.2%+527.5%-515.3%-13.6 pts693INCONCLUSIVE
YUM-93.4%+4282.5%-4375.9%-18.4 pts1946OVERFIT
ZBH-88.0%+292.2%-380.1%-17.8 pts1666OVERFIT
ZBRA+74.3%+8617.7%-8543.4%before 19932208OVERFIT
ZTS-47.3%+179.3%-226.6%-19.2 pts942INCONCLUSIVE

Forex · 0 / 8 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 8

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
EUR/USD-13.1%-3.1%-9.9%-11.7 pts1588OVERFIT
GBP/USD-28.9%-21.2%-7.7%-12.5 pts1590OVERFIT
USD/JPY-20.6%+40.2%-60.8%-11.0 pts2037OVERFIT
USD/MXN-20.2%+49.9%-70.1%-12.0 pts1561OVERFIT
AUD/USD-17.1%-6.6%-10.5%-12.1 pts1425OVERFIT
USD/CAD-24.6%+1.7%-26.3%-12.4 pts1627OVERFIT
USD/CHF-44.9%-41.4%-3.5%-13.7 pts1601OVERFIT
NZD/USD-33.7%-8.1%-25.6%-12.8 pts1618OVERFIT

Crypto · 0 / 2 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 1 / 2

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Bitcoin+7476.6%+17075.3%-9598.7%+14.6 pts986INCONCLUSIVE
Ethern/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin+158.0%+859.3%-701.3%-8.2 pts1082INCONCLUSIVE
Solanan/a · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanon/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinn/a · history < 10y (8.8y)

And intraday?

5-minute to 4-hour bars, every asset from where intraday history exists (stocks 2016, forex 2003, crypto 2015), against holding that same asset. Difference versus buy-and-hold. No walk-forward (see protocol).

Asset5 min15 min1 hour4 hoursDaily
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.2%-1348.2%-1348.1%-701.3%
Solanan/an/an/an/an/a
Cardanon/an/an/an/an/a
Dogecoinn/an/an/an/an/a
EUR/USD-87.7%-87.7%-95.5%-66.9%-9.9%
GBP/USD-87.5%-87.5%-77.8%-48.3%-7.7%
USD/JPY-136.0%-136.0%-132.4%-82.0%-60.8%
AUD/USD-10.5%
USD/CAD-136.7%-136.7%-101.2%-76.8%-26.3%
USD/CHF-85.1%-85.1%-58.2%-38.2%-3.5%
NZD/USD-82.5%-82.5%-90.1%-41.3%-25.6%
S&P 500 (SPY)-454.0%-454.0%-451.2%-408.7%-3155.8%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-705.1%-705.1%-701.7%-649.7%-1638.9%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-307.3%-307.3%-306.2%-269.9%-884.9%
Emergentes (EEM)-269.1%-269.1%-266.8%-241.3%-880.0%
Oro (GLD)-397.4%-397.4%-394.0%-361.5%-830.9%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-91.8%-91.8%-90.9%-71.5%-218.5%
AAPL-1349.6%-1349.6%-1344.0%-1229.8%-322854.8%
AMGN-379.1%-379.1%-377.9%-301.1%-186813.3%
AMZN-836.5%-836.5%-831.2%-750.8%-264335.5%
AXP-573.8%-573.8%-569.2%-472.7%-27120.4%
BA-166.5%-166.5%-164.0%-38.7%-108186.9%
CAT-1513.0%-1513.0%-1508.8%-1294.9%-157187.2%
CRM-339.5%-339.5%-338.4%-307.7%-5954.4%
CSCO-570.4%-570.4%-568.5%-516.6%-223027.5%
CVX-358.2%-358.2%-357.1%-314.4%-68116.2%
DIS-114.8%-114.8%-113.4%-103.9%-188972.3%
GOOGL-920.8%-920.8%-918.5%-852.9%-12734.9%
GS-723.2%-723.2%-718.2%-639.8%-2078.5%
HD-324.2%-324.2%-322.6%-280.7%-1984875.3%
HON-280.6%-280.6%-279.5%-238.8%-21146.4%
IBM-286.6%-286.6%-284.8%-235.2%-16292.6%
JNJ-357.5%-357.5%-356.8%-322.6%-445261.3%
JPM-742.2%-742.2%-740.0%-690.5%-34499.0%
KO-293.4%-293.4%-292.3%-262.3%-199338.9%
MCD-285.6%-285.6%-284.1%-256.1%-236672.3%
MMM-200.3%-200.3%-199.5%-160.3%-31234.5%
MRK-412.7%-412.7%-411.4%-320.9%-233449.8%
MSFT-1077.0%-1077.0%-1074.9%-1042.2%-859382.9%
NKE-74.3%-74.3%-73.0%-50.0%-32057.5%
NVDA-27586.0%-27586.0%-27571.7%-25983.7%-586839.5%
PG-246.9%-246.9%-245.4%-228.7%-59789.8%
SHW-449.0%-449.0%-447.6%-404.5%-231850.2%
TRV-422.1%-422.1%-420.4%-395.0%-11104.9%
UNH-401.4%-401.4%-399.3%-352.6%-352115.2%
V-543.9%-543.9%-542.5%-521.5%-2987.0%
WMT-607.6%-607.6%-604.8%-564.0%-915412.3%
ABNBn/an/an/an/an/a
ADBE-317.0%-317.0%-316.0%-286.1%-147514.3%
ADI-814.6%-814.6%-811.7%-789.5%-81611.1%
ADP-441.3%-441.3%-439.7%-416.8%-74252.3%
ADSK-432.2%-432.2%-429.4%-378.8%-58071.8%
AEP-305.4%-305.4%-303.1%-245.7%-13815.9%
ALABn/an/an/an/an/a
ALNY-254.9%-254.9%-251.0%-203.8%-3230.3%
AMAT-2817.9%-2817.9%-2815.1%-2687.7%-664814.7%
AMD-16807.9%-16807.9%-16792.5%-16370.2%-14921.7%
APPn/an/an/an/an/a
ARMn/an/an/an/an/a
ASML-2158.7%-2158.7%-2156.4%-2029.5%-96324.0%
AVGO-3403.2%-3403.2%-3393.3%-3197.5%-32353.6%
AXON-3569.4%-3569.4%-3557.4%-3332.6%-121655.3%
BKNG-421.6%-421.6%-420.1%-385.8%-969.1%
BKRn/an/an/an/a-1031.7%
CCEP-415.8%-415.8%-414.1%-391.6%-7090.8%
CDNS-1658.0%-1658.0%-1654.4%-1597.8%-16916.4%
CEGn/an/an/an/an/a
CMCSA-135.8%-135.8%-135.2%-126.6%-47111.6%
COST-707.4%-707.4%-704.9%-612.4%-12851.8%
CPRT-700.6%-700.6%-695.6%-627.5%-21355.0%
CRWDn/an/an/an/an/a
CSX-696.6%-696.6%-694.9%-668.5%-40520.6%
CTAS-1031.2%-1031.2%-1029.2%-925.3%-123294.8%
DASHn/an/an/an/an/a
DDOGn/an/an/an/an/a
DXCM-462.8%-462.8%-457.5%-435.1%-2909.4%
EAn/a
EXC-318.9%-318.9%-317.8%-291.6%-17771.8%
FANG-393.3%-393.3%-388.8%-321.4%-1355.5%
FAST-656.9%-656.9%-654.8%-591.7%-260966.7%
FERn/an/an/an/a-481.5%
FTNT-2745.6%-2745.6%-2744.6%-2570.8%-10167.4%
GEHCn/an/an/an/an/a
GILD-214.0%-214.0%-213.7%-188.7%-33496.6%
HONAn/an/an/an/an/a
IDXX-780.4%-780.4%-778.2%-733.8%-58690.8%
INTC-333.1%-333.1%-331.1%-268.5%-49273.0%
INTU-414.2%-414.2%-411.5%-385.7%-15512.2%
ISRG-612.6%-612.6%-610.4%-574.7%-16885.6%
KHC-56.8%-56.8%-56.0%-42.8%-24.4%
KLAC-3063.6%-3063.6%-3061.6%-2995.7%-289424.0%
LINn/an/an/an/a-10871.5%
LITE-4008.1%-4008.1%-4004.5%-3894.9%-5064.5%
LRCX-4481.4%-4481.4%-4478.1%-4316.1%-159865.1%
MAR-594.3%-594.3%-591.8%-503.1%-2629.2%
MCHP-391.6%-391.6%-390.6%-355.4%-42059.7%
MDLZ-182.0%-182.0%-181.2%-160.9%-531.3%
MELI-1800.1%-1800.1%-1798.1%-1727.0%-6876.1%
META-570.4%-570.4%-568.7%-550.9%-1421.1%
MNST-194.8%-194.8%-193.9%-171.8%-60940.7%
MPWR-2250.5%-2250.5%-2248.5%-2214.4%-15065.8%
MRVL-2679.8%-2679.8%-2673.2%-2546.8%-1736.2%
MSTR-743.9%-743.9%-721.8%-484.6%+4670.5%
MU-6675.8%-6675.8%-6652.7%-6280.3%-70535.5%
NFLX-743.2%-743.2%-742.4%-670.7%-67104.3%
NXPI-300.5%-300.5%-299.7%-278.9%-1782.9%
ODFL-1063.8%-1063.8%-1060.9%-985.6%-36543.8%
ORLY-539.4%-539.4%-537.4%-496.4%-54728.0%
PANW-1299.9%-1299.9%-1297.5%-1137.6%-3738.7%
PCAR-580.1%-580.1%-579.3%-548.5%-56616.4%
PDDn/an/an/an/an/a
PEP-196.8%-196.8%-195.6%-177.4%-37857.6%
PLTRn/an/an/an/an/a
PYPL-155.8%-155.8%-154.1%-138.5%-127.8%
QCOM-438.6%-438.6%-437.2%-403.8%-50509.0%
REGN-155.2%-155.2%-154.7%-112.3%-3507.8%
ROP-244.2%-244.2%-243.3%-216.6%-25994.9%
ROST-465.7%-465.7%-464.3%-433.5%-55712.7%
SBUX-232.0%-232.0%-231.1%-200.8%-43114.0%
SHOP-5944.8%-5944.8%-5921.1%-4907.3%-8437.8%
SNDKn/an/an/an/an/a
SNPS-985.3%-985.3%-981.2%-945.0%-5580.6%
STX-3652.5%-3652.5%-3643.1%-3542.0%-13795.2%
TER-1857.0%-1857.0%-1853.6%-1814.7%-31331.5%
TMUS-489.7%-489.7%-488.5%-457.8%-401.1%
TRI-362.7%-362.7%-360.7%-333.6%-638.6%
TSLA-2341.6%-2341.6%-2107.3%-1858.8%-22722.8%
TTWO-688.9%-688.9%-688.0%-655.7%-5459.6%
TXN-637.7%-637.7%-636.9%-613.5%-38130.5%
VRTX-440.8%-440.8%-439.7%-409.8%-11756.8%
WBDn/an/an/an/a-288.0%
WDAY-263.3%-263.3%-262.2%-208.9%-331.3%
WDC-1171.5%-1171.5%-1164.7%-1023.7%-65710.4%
XEL-295.9%-295.9%-294.8%-266.8%-7319.2%
KDP-278.1%-278.1%-276.7%-245.8%-1143.3%
USD/MXN-135.0%-135.0%-151.4%-121.1%-70.1%
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18084.8%-18084.8%-18083.0%-9598.7%
Ethern/a

0 / 472 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 2 / 472

What if I nudge the parameters? (on the index)

ParametersReturnSharpeMax DDVs. index
trend_bars 4-74.8%-0.63-83.8%-3155.8%

A rule that only works at the exact textbook numbers and dies one notch away is not an edge: it is luck.

Out of sample and robustness (on the index)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Deflated Sharpe: 0.00 (< 0.95)

Robustness suite: MODERATE

By halves: First half did not beat (-71.1% vs +237.3%); Second half did not beat (-12.7% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.

Deflated Sharpe 0.0 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Receipt

Computed on 2026-09-10 · period: each asset from its first bar (1962-01-01 to 2026-08-31) · round-trip costs: stocks and index 10 bps, forex 2 bps, crypto 30 bps · artifact 2aad8ceec7e6 · Finaxion engine

By market

Each market's page, ordered by annual excess over the S&P 500. The first 8 are shown; the rest are in the sitemap. See all 8 markets

Sources for the claim

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Heikin Ashi: follow the coloured candles: works in few markets. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 2aad8ceec7e6. https://finaxion.app/en/research/heikin-ashi

Reproduce it with your own strategy