Works in few markets
Its ground: forex, on 4-hour, on a single asset — it beats in 18 of 961 combinations.
Detail on the index (S&P 500), which is the reference for the chart, the robustness suite and the neighbours.
ICT / Smart Money's fair value gap beats buy-and-hold in 10 of 40 markets (25 %), mostly on forex pairs, though it beats in 0 of 14 cryptocurrencies. Of the 9 daily markets where it beats, 2 hold out of sample (22 %), and no neighbouring parameter beats the index, indicating the published setting is a point, not a region. The strategy improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 118, while on 4-hour bars it beats in 6 of 118; its best daily market is MSTR at -5.4 points a year over the S&P 500 across 28 years with 226 trades, and its worst is PANW at -19.6 points a year against the S&P 500.
Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact baf59d3a43e0.
“A gap between candles is an imbalance the market always comes back to fill. Buy when price returns to the gap.”
Mechanical approximation: three-candle bullish gaps are detected within a 38-bar window; a return of price into the gap → entry; exit after 20 bars.
| Asset | Return | Buy and hold | Difference | Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr) | Trades | Out of sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -21.8% | +3081.0% | -3102.8% | -11.6 pts | 296 | OVERFIT |
| Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) | -17.8% | +1565.8% | -1583.7% | -9.3 pts | 210 | OVERFIT |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | -11.6% | +801.9% | -813.5% | -9.1 pts | 214 | OVERFIT |
| Emergentes (EEM) | +7.0% | +830.9% | -823.9% | -11.4 pts | 208 | OVERFIT |
| Oro (GLD) | -18.4% | +820.3% | -838.6% | -11.9 pts | 196 | OVERFIT |
| Bonos 20 años (TLT) | +6.9% | +131.2% | -124.3% | -11.0 pts | 186 | OVERFIT |
| Asset | Return | Buy and hold | Difference | Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr) | Trades | Out of sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · max 10) | -90.8% | +3081.0% | -3171.9% | -17.7 pts | 6022 | — |
| Asset | Return | Buy and hold | Difference | Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr) | Trades | Out of sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · max 20) | -73.8% | +3081.0% | -3154.8% | -14.8 pts | 14696 | — |
| Asset | Return | Buy and hold | Difference | Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr) | Trades | Out of sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · max 25) | -87.4% | +3081.0% | -3168.4% | -16.8 pts | 91658 | — |
| Asset | Return | Buy and hold | Difference | Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr) | Trades | Out of sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | -14.6% | +322813.1% | -322827.6% | before 1993 | 342 | OVERFIT |
| AMGN | +141.5% | +187272.6% | -187131.1% | before 1993 | 360 | OVERFIT |
| AMZN | +33.9% | +265196.1% | -265162.2% | -8.7 pts | 270 | OVERFIT |
| AXP | -60.0% | +27029.4% | -27089.4% | before 1993 | 584 | OVERFIT |
| BA | +15.5% | +108724.7% | -108709.1% | before 1993 | 572 | OVERFIT |
| CAT | -14.4% | +172708.3% | -172722.6% | before 1993 | 598 | OVERFIT |
| CRM | -0.6% | +5992.9% | -5993.5% | -11.0 pts | 174 | OVERFIT |
| CSCO | +4.0% | +222956.6% | -222952.6% | before 1993 | 262 | OVERFIT |
| CVX | -20.6% | +68037.6% | -68058.2% | before 1993 | 496 | OVERFIT |
| DIS | -35.6% | +189847.3% | -189882.9% | before 1993 | 566 | OVERFIT |
| GOOGL | +12.1% | +13534.3% | -13522.2% | -10.7 pts | 184 | OVERFIT |
| GS | -23.3% | +2027.1% | -2050.5% | -9.4 pts | 216 | OVERFIT |
| HD | -4.6% | +1985758.9% | -1985763.5% | before 1993 | 424 | OVERFIT |
| HON | -32.5% | +21058.8% | -21091.3% | before 1993 | 526 | OVERFIT |
| IBM | -56.5% | +16203.8% | -16260.3% | before 1993 | 524 | OVERFIT |
| JNJ | -17.2% | +445196.6% | -445213.8% | before 1993 | 641 | OVERFIT |
| JPM | -15.5% | +34522.5% | -34538.0% | before 1993 | 372 | OVERFIT |
| KO | -44.6% | +199349.6% | -199394.2% | before 1993 | 651 | OVERFIT |
| MCD | +12.4% | +236707.0% | -236694.5% | before 1993 | 468 | OVERFIT |
| MMM | -39.9% | +31160.0% | -31199.9% | before 1993 | 598 | OVERFIT |
| MRK | -24.7% | +233375.1% | -233399.8% | before 1993 | 590 | OVERFIT |
| MSFT | +1.8% | +859506.0% | -859504.2% | before 1993 | 318 | OVERFIT |
| NKE | +30.5% | +32003.7% | -31973.1% | before 1993 | 438 | OVERFIT |
| NVDA | +0.2% | +587720.8% | -587720.6% | -8.7 pts | 212 | OVERFIT |
| PG | -6.3% | +59706.6% | -59713.0% | before 1993 | 540 | OVERFIT |
| SHW | -41.0% | +231766.6% | -231807.5% | before 1993 | 500 | OVERFIT |
| TRV | -44.5% | +12287.7% | -12332.2% | before 1993 | 604 | OVERFIT |
| UNH | +101.8% | +353381.4% | -353279.6% | before 1993 | 370 | OVERFIT |
| V | -5.6% | +2961.1% | -2966.7% | -12.4 pts | 136 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| WMT | -57.0% | +915365.3% | -915422.4% | before 1993 | 522 | OVERFIT |
| ABNB | n/a · history < 10y (5.7y) | |||||
| ADBE | -14.4% | +147731.1% | -147745.5% | before 1993 | 292 | OVERFIT |
| ADI | +133.6% | +81534.0% | -81400.4% | before 1993 | 492 | OVERFIT |
| ADP | -21.5% | +74205.9% | -74227.4% | before 1993 | 418 | OVERFIT |
| ADSK | -8.6% | +58084.6% | -58093.2% | before 1993 | 384 | OVERFIT |
| AEP | -56.4% | +13797.6% | -13854.0% | before 1993 | 490 | OVERFIT |
| ALAB | n/a · history < 10y (2.4y) | |||||
| ALNY | -5.9% | +3338.4% | -3344.3% | -11.3 pts | 126 | OVERFIT |
| AMAT | +64.6% | +664974.8% | -664910.3% | before 1993 | 448 | OVERFIT |
| AMD | +81.5% | +14863.3% | -14781.8% | before 1993 | 402 | OVERFIT |
| APP | n/a · history < 10y (5.4y) | |||||
| ARM | n/a · history < 10y (3.0y) | |||||
| ASML | +20.1% | +96277.5% | -96257.3% | -10.4 pts | 308 | OVERFIT |
| AVGO | +54.3% | +32512.1% | -32457.8% | -12.1 pts | 140 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| AXON | +38.8% | +123065.2% | -123026.4% | -8.2 pts | 186 | OVERFIT |
| BKNG | +89.7% | +922.2% | -832.5% | -6.2 pts | 261 | OVERFIT |
| BKR | -53.4% | +933.9% | -987.2% | before 1993 | 234 | OVERFIT |
| CCEP | -33.8% | +7081.8% | -7115.6% | before 1993 | 330 | OVERFIT |
| CDNS | +137.2% | +16839.0% | -16701.8% | before 1993 | 350 | OVERFIT |
| CEG | n/a · history < 10y (4.6y) | |||||
| CMCSA | -54.8% | +47049.9% | -47104.7% | before 1993 | 502 | OVERFIT |
| COST | +17.9% | +12800.7% | -12782.8% | before 1993 | 368 | OVERFIT |
| CPRT | +3.5% | +21554.9% | -21551.5% | -10.8 pts | 222 | OVERFIT |
| CRWD | n/a · history < 10y (7.2y) | |||||
| CSX | -40.6% | +40426.1% | -40466.7% | before 1993 | 403 | OVERFIT |
| CTAS | +9.9% | +123411.3% | -123401.4% | before 1993 | 430 | OVERFIT |
| DASH | n/a · history < 10y (5.7y) | |||||
| DDOG | n/a · history < 10y (6.9y) | |||||
| DXCM | -24.1% | +3002.6% | -3026.7% | -12.6 pts | 164 | OVERFIT |
| EA | n/a · history < 10y (9.0y) | |||||
| EXC | -2.9% | +17730.6% | -17733.5% | before 1993 | 438 | OVERFIT |
| FANG | +51.1% | +1406.8% | -1355.7% | -11.8 pts | 120 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| FAST | -2.8% | +262350.7% | -262353.5% | before 1993 | 336 | OVERFIT |
| FER | -19.7% | +593.7% | -613.4% | -16.4 pts | 232 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| FTNT | +11.9% | +10184.6% | -10172.7% | -13.5 pts | 118 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| GEHC | n/a · history < 10y (3.7y) | |||||
| GILD | +23.6% | +33594.8% | -33571.1% | before 1993 | 234 | OVERFIT |
| HONA | n/a · history < 10y (0.2y) | |||||
| IDXX | +3.3% | +58789.5% | -58786.1% | before 1993 | 312 | OVERFIT |
| INTC | -38.6% | +49216.9% | -49255.5% | before 1993 | 394 | OVERFIT |
| INTU | -18.8% | +15430.2% | -15449.0% | -11.4 pts | 232 | OVERFIT |
| ISRG | -45.3% | +18484.9% | -18530.1% | -10.7 pts | 208 | OVERFIT |
| KDP | -6.0% | +1090.2% | -1096.2% | -12.1 pts | 114 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| KHC | -6.9% | -42.2% | +35.3% | -15.0 pts | 54 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| KLAC | -56.5% | +289399.1% | -289455.6% | before 1993 | 468 | OVERFIT |
| LIN | -2.5% | +10777.0% | -10779.5% | before 1993 | 264 | OVERFIT |
| LITE | +63.6% | +5280.9% | -5217.3% | -9.7 pts | 72 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| LRCX | +46.6% | +159814.6% | -159768.0% | before 1993 | 372 | OVERFIT |
| MAR | +1.1% | +2539.5% | -2538.3% | -8.9 pts | 258 | OVERFIT |
| MCHP | -7.8% | +41961.5% | -41969.3% | -11.0 pts | 258 | OVERFIT |
| MDLZ | -6.5% | +461.4% | -467.9% | -9.7 pts | 158 | OVERFIT |
| MELI | +44.3% | +6911.0% | -6866.8% | -9.2 pts | 144 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| META | +15.0% | +1410.2% | -1395.3% | -14.2 pts | 124 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| MNST | -36.7% | +61968.9% | -62005.6% | before 1993 | 396 | OVERFIT |
| MPWR | -3.9% | +15002.1% | -15006.0% | -11.2 pts | 162 | OVERFIT |
| MRVL | -12.0% | +1645.0% | -1657.0% | -9.0 pts | 224 | OVERFIT |
| MSTR | +170.3% | +1158.6% | -988.3% | -5.4 pts | 226 | OVERFIT |
| MU | +44.9% | +70877.8% | -70832.9% | before 1993 | 306 | OVERFIT |
| NFLX | +60.6% | +67643.2% | -67582.6% | -8.3 pts | 176 | OVERFIT |
| NXPI | -29.7% | +1721.2% | -1750.8% | -16.9 pts | 140 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| ODFL | +14.9% | +36444.7% | -36429.8% | before 1993 | 406 | OVERFIT |
| ORLY | +24.2% | +55255.7% | -55231.5% | -10.3 pts | 262 | OVERFIT |
| PANW | -48.9% | +4215.4% | -4264.3% | -19.6 pts | 108 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| PCAR | +6.3% | +57106.4% | -57100.0% | before 1993 | 426 | OVERFIT |
| PDD | n/a · history < 10y (8.1y) | |||||
| PEP | -8.7% | +37760.7% | -37769.4% | before 1993 | 482 | OVERFIT |
| PLTR | n/a · history < 10y (5.9y) | |||||
| PYPL | +10.8% | +44.7% | -33.9% | -13.4 pts | 62 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| QCOM | -28.2% | +50430.1% | -50458.3% | before 1993 | 254 | OVERFIT |
| REGN | -13.4% | +3718.3% | -3731.7% | before 1993 | 216 | OVERFIT |
| ROP | +37.7% | +26003.6% | -25965.9% | before 1993 | 264 | OVERFIT |
| ROST | +81.2% | +55801.1% | -55719.9% | before 1993 | 352 | OVERFIT |
| SBUX | -38.1% | +43019.5% | -43057.7% | before 1993 | 304 | OVERFIT |
| SHOP | -4.7% | +8568.8% | -8573.5% | -14.3 pts | 76 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| SNDK | n/a · history < 10y (1.5y) | |||||
| SNPS | +2.3% | +5482.1% | -5479.8% | before 1993 | 220 | OVERFIT |
| STX | +52.9% | +15614.6% | -15561.7% | -9.6 pts | 148 | OVERFIT |
| TER | -53.2% | +31309.8% | -31363.0% | before 1993 | 512 | OVERFIT |
| TMUS | -9.1% | +318.0% | -327.1% | -11.4 pts | 156 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| TRI | -21.9% | +578.4% | -600.3% | -11.7 pts | 210 | OVERFIT |
| TSLA | +88.8% | +23002.8% | -22913.9% | -11.1 pts | 100 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| TTWO | -18.1% | +5509.7% | -5527.8% | -10.8 pts | 222 | OVERFIT |
| TXN | +62.3% | +38040.6% | -37978.3% | before 1993 | 430 | OVERFIT |
| VRTX | +24.0% | +12000.4% | -11976.5% | before 1993 | 238 | OVERFIT |
| WBD | -7.3% | +302.2% | -309.4% | -11.5 pts | 140 | OVERFIT |
| WDAY | -16.6% | +305.5% | -322.1% | -16.1 pts | 102 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| WDC | -48.2% | +66202.2% | -66250.4% | before 1993 | 428 | OVERFIT |
| XEL | -31.8% | +7388.9% | -7420.7% | before 1993 | 444 | OVERFIT |
| A | +8.8% | +486.3% | -477.6% | -8.1 pts | 182 | OVERFIT |
| ABBV | +14.5% | +1156.0% | -1141.5% | -13.8 pts | 90 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| ABT | -34.0% | +62056.2% | -62090.1% | before 1993 | 386 | OVERFIT |
| ACGL | -26.7% | +4268.0% | -4294.7% | -11.6 pts | 258 | OVERFIT |
| ACN | +4.3% | +1726.5% | -1722.2% | -9.4 pts | 180 | OVERFIT |
| ADM | -1.7% | +9265.6% | -9267.3% | before 1993 | 396 | OVERFIT |
| AEE | +1.5% | +813.9% | -812.5% | -9.3 pts | 188 | OVERFIT |
| AES | +16.9% | +647.5% | -630.6% | before 1993 | 228 | OVERFIT |
| AFL | -27.3% | +205848.4% | -205875.7% | before 1993 | 374 | OVERFIT |
| AIG | +73.3% | +468.3% | -395.0% | before 1993 | 592 | OVERFIT |
| AIZ | -12.2% | +1585.5% | -1597.7% | -11.4 pts | 194 | OVERFIT |
| AJG | -20.5% | +41899.5% | -41920.0% | before 1993 | 490 | OVERFIT |
| AKAM | +0.9% | -25.2% | +26.1% | -8.5 pts | 180 | OVERFIT |
| ALB | +46.6% | +3091.3% | -3044.7% | -9.7 pts | 240 | OVERFIT |
| ALGN | -33.7% | +846.9% | -880.6% | -10.5 pts | 174 | OVERFIT |
| ALL | -13.8% | +3674.2% | -3688.0% | -11.3 pts | 298 | OVERFIT |
| ALLE | +20.6% | +265.9% | -245.3% | -12.5 pts | 108 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| AMCR | -14.1% | +100.6% | -114.7% | -16.1 pts | 202 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| AME | -19.3% | +25325.0% | -25344.3% | before 1993 | 344 | OVERFIT |
| AMP | +16.3% | +2154.1% | -2137.8% | -10.4 pts | 164 | OVERFIT |
| AMT | -25.1% | +1310.2% | -1335.2% | -10.1 pts | 222 | OVERFIT |
| ANET | -6.3% | +5592.8% | -5599.1% | -14.3 pts | 74 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| AON | -20.7% | +29815.0% | -29835.8% | before 1993 | 400 | OVERFIT |
| AOS | -37.5% | +13924.9% | -13962.5% | before 1993 | 560 | OVERFIT |
| APA | -18.9% | +2417.2% | -2436.1% | before 1993 | 426 | OVERFIT |
| APD | -40.8% | +20722.2% | -20763.0% | before 1993 | 381 | OVERFIT |
| APH | -35.3% | +146951.6% | -146986.9% | before 1993 | 336 | OVERFIT |
| APO | -4.5% | +1845.9% | -1850.4% | -14.3 pts | 93 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| APTV | -19.1% | +174.0% | -193.0% | -16.7 pts | 134 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| ARE | -14.4% | +624.3% | -638.7% | -10.2 pts | 220 | OVERFIT |
| ARES | +20.0% | +1191.9% | -1171.9% | -12.5 pts | 84 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| ATO | -25.6% | +13696.4% | -13721.9% | before 1993 | 430 | OVERFIT |
| AVB | -1.9% | +42.3% | -44.2% | -15.4 pts | 64 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| AVY | -45.9% | +8544.4% | -8590.3% | before 1993 | 550 | OVERFIT |
| AWK | +29.2% | +950.9% | -921.7% | -10.4 pts | 126 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| AZO | -45.1% | +40631.8% | -40676.9% | before 1993 | 284 | OVERFIT |
| BAC | -37.5% | +4053.1% | -4090.6% | before 1993 | 460 | OVERFIT |
| BALL | -39.7% | +49568.6% | -49608.3% | before 1993 | 512 | OVERFIT |
| BAX | -24.9% | +1778.4% | -1803.4% | before 1993 | 322 | OVERFIT |
| BBY | +56.9% | +89506.6% | -89449.8% | before 1993 | 332 | OVERFIT |
| BDX | -29.2% | +21440.4% | -21469.6% | before 1993 | 454 | OVERFIT |
| BEN | -43.6% | +130378.8% | -130422.4% | before 1993 | 352 | OVERFIT |
| BF-B | -56.1% | +14873.5% | -14929.6% | before 1993 | 418 | OVERFIT |
| BG | +13.7% | +1105.5% | -1091.8% | -9.0 pts | 190 | OVERFIT |
| BIIB | -7.4% | +6832.8% | -6840.2% | before 1993 | 312 | OVERFIT |
| BLDR | +22.6% | +393.7% | -371.1% | -10.2 pts | 136 | OVERFIT |
| BLK | -20.7% | +13724.5% | -13745.2% | -9.6 pts | 222 | OVERFIT |
| BMY | -18.7% | +23662.6% | -23681.3% | before 1993 | 440 | OVERFIT |
| BNY | -23.2% | +32230.3% | -32253.5% | before 1993 | 542 | OVERFIT |
| BR | -5.6% | +1234.2% | -1239.8% | -11.3 pts | 172 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| BRK-B | -34.3% | +2072.5% | -2106.9% | -11.8 pts | 248 | OVERFIT |
| BRO | +59.4% | +76212.8% | -76153.4% | before 1993 | 484 | OVERFIT |
| BSX | -35.8% | +1028.2% | -1064.0% | before 1993 | 292 | OVERFIT |
| BX | -42.6% | +1023.3% | -1065.9% | -13.7 pts | 139 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| BXP | +20.6% | +888.9% | -868.3% | -8.9 pts | 164 | OVERFIT |
| C | -65.3% | +1897.9% | -1963.3% | before 1993 | 418 | OVERFIT |
| CAH | -27.0% | +39284.8% | -39311.7% | before 1993 | 356 | OVERFIT |
| CARR | n/a · history < 10y (6.5y) | |||||
| CASY | +16.1% | +80461.2% | -80445.2% | before 1993 | 398 | OVERFIT |
| CB | -28.6% | +6587.6% | -6616.2% | -11.8 pts | 280 | OVERFIT |
| CBOE | +7.8% | +1060.1% | -1052.2% | -14.1 pts | 92 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| CBRE | +51.1% | +2283.8% | -2232.7% | -9.1 pts | 206 | OVERFIT |
| CCI | +12.1% | +899.9% | -887.8% | -8.6 pts | 244 | OVERFIT |
| CCL | -21.2% | +1154.4% | -1175.6% | before 1993 | 330 | OVERFIT |
| CDW | -22.7% | +858.2% | -880.9% | -16.4 pts | 82 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| CF | +45.0% | +5815.9% | -5770.9% | -9.3 pts | 149 | OVERFIT |
| CFG | +3.5% | +349.9% | -346.4% | -13.5 pts | 74 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| CHD | -41.5% | +93736.5% | -93778.0% | before 1993 | 382 | OVERFIT |
| CHRW | -44.4% | +4307.6% | -4352.0% | -11.4 pts | 166 | OVERFIT |
| CHTR | -23.6% | +335.5% | -359.2% | -15.8 pts | 130 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| CI | +7.8% | +12980.8% | -12973.0% | before 1993 | 374 | OVERFIT |
| CIEN | -22.8% | +195.6% | -218.4% | -10.7 pts | 224 | OVERFIT |
| CINF | +19.6% | +41545.9% | -41526.4% | before 1993 | 478 | OVERFIT |
| CL | -48.0% | +20919.0% | -20967.0% | before 1993 | 482 | OVERFIT |
| CLX | -64.3% | +6184.2% | -6248.5% | before 1993 | 446 | OVERFIT |
| CME | +20.0% | +6884.2% | -6864.2% | -10.6 pts | 188 | OVERFIT |
| CMG | +6.5% | +4221.6% | -4215.1% | -10.8 pts | 155 | OVERFIT |
| CMI | +39.7% | +28968.2% | -28928.5% | before 1993 | 474 | OVERFIT |
| CMS | -4.1% | +630.8% | -634.9% | before 1993 | 504 | OVERFIT |
| CNC | +31.7% | +4388.8% | -4357.1% | -8.9 pts | 174 | OVERFIT |
| CNP | -3.3% | +13998.0% | -14001.3% | before 1993 | 598 | OVERFIT |
| COF | +16.3% | +5724.6% | -5708.2% | -10.6 pts | 250 | OVERFIT |
| COHR | -65.6% | +68288.9% | -68354.5% | before 1993 | 326 | OVERFIT |
| COIN | n/a · history < 10y (5.4y) | |||||
| COO | -27.8% | +879.8% | -907.6% | before 1993 | 366 | OVERFIT |
| COP | -67.1% | +13561.7% | -13628.8% | before 1993 | 382 | OVERFIT |
| COR | -7.2% | +17062.1% | -17069.2% | -11.2 pts | 204 | OVERFIT |
| CPAY | -10.1% | +1383.7% | -1393.8% | -15.0 pts | 132 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| CPT | -7.1% | +2453.9% | -2461.1% | -11.2 pts | 258 | OVERFIT |
| CRH | -43.6% | +7617.9% | -7661.5% | before 1993 | 496 | OVERFIT |
| CRL | -3.1% | +1210.2% | -1213.3% | -8.6 pts | 212 | OVERFIT |
| CSGP | -28.8% | +3390.6% | -3419.5% | -10.0 pts | 236 | OVERFIT |
| CTSH | +103.2% | +35498.3% | -35395.1% | -6.4 pts | 240 | OVERFIT |
| CTVA | n/a · history < 10y (7.3y) | |||||
| CVNA | n/a · history < 10y (9.3y) | |||||
| CVS | -23.4% | +15658.6% | -15682.0% | before 1993 | 512 | OVERFIT |
| D | -18.0% | +17762.4% | -17780.4% | before 1993 | 350 | OVERFIT |
| DAL | -21.5% | +339.1% | -360.6% | -12.0 pts | 116 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| DD | -42.3% | +10113.6% | -10155.9% | before 1993 | 454 | OVERFIT |
| DE | -48.6% | +101089.1% | -101137.7% | before 1993 | 428 | OVERFIT |
| DECK | -75.7% | +7024.7% | -7100.4% | -15.0 pts | 258 | OVERFIT |
| DELL | -7.3% | +4059.8% | -4067.1% | -15.9 pts | 92 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| DG | -19.5% | +550.3% | -569.7% | -15.6 pts | 116 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| DGX | +18.1% | +9626.0% | -9607.9% | -9.6 pts | 244 | OVERFIT |
| DHI | -38.6% | +13111.0% | -13149.6% | before 1993 | 350 | OVERFIT |
| DHR | -64.8% | +483557.2% | -483622.0% | before 1993 | 522 | OVERFIT |
| DLR | +15.1% | +3540.7% | -3525.6% | -10.5 pts | 156 | OVERFIT |
| DLTR | +44.3% | +10731.5% | -10687.2% | -9.9 pts | 260 | OVERFIT |
| DOC | -15.1% | +6136.8% | -6151.9% | before 1993 | 320 | OVERFIT |
| DOV | -24.9% | +29264.8% | -29289.7% | before 1993 | 392 | OVERFIT |
| DOW | n/a · history < 10y (7.4y) | |||||
| DPZ | -34.1% | +5638.6% | -5672.6% | -13.0 pts | 188 | OVERFIT |
| DRI | -3.9% | +6998.7% | -7002.6% | -11.0 pts | 218 | OVERFIT |
| DTE | -42.5% | +35264.3% | -35306.8% | before 1993 | 594 | OVERFIT |
| DUK | -8.7% | +16239.0% | -16247.7% | before 1993 | 414 | OVERFIT |
| DVA | -51.0% | +4219.3% | -4270.3% | -12.9 pts | 278 | OVERFIT |
| DVN | +40.0% | +1411.9% | -1371.9% | before 1993 | 418 | OVERFIT |
| EBAY | -0.4% | +14035.1% | -14035.5% | -9.3 pts | 226 | OVERFIT |
| ECHO | -6.2% | +227.3% | -233.6% | -11.7 pts | 114 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| ECL | -66.7% | +20174.1% | -20240.8% | before 1993 | 646 | OVERFIT |
| ED | -51.6% | +45081.6% | -45133.3% | before 1993 | 576 | OVERFIT |
| EFX | +15.8% | +77234.4% | -77218.6% | before 1993 | 454 | OVERFIT |
| EG | -20.9% | +2975.7% | -2996.6% | -11.3 pts | 274 | OVERFIT |
| EIX | -10.0% | +14610.5% | -14620.6% | before 1993 | 464 | OVERFIT |
| EL | +26.9% | +1551.3% | -1524.4% | -9.7 pts | 242 | OVERFIT |
| ELV | -9.6% | +2326.9% | -2336.4% | -10.7 pts | 196 | OVERFIT |
| EME | +1.2% | +59203.5% | -59202.3% | -11.2 pts | 312 | OVERFIT |
| EMR | -15.3% | +19839.1% | -19854.5% | before 1993 | 480 | OVERFIT |
| EOG | -35.6% | +9279.7% | -9315.3% | before 1993 | 264 | OVERFIT |
| EQIX | -37.8% | +240.5% | -278.3% | -10.2 pts | 221 | OVERFIT |
| EQR | -0.6% | +44.2% | -44.8% | -15.3 pts | 62 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| EQT | -44.5% | +19557.1% | -19601.7% | before 1993 | 378 | OVERFIT |
| ERIE | +6.6% | +3362.8% | -3356.2% | -10.4 pts | 136 | OVERFIT |
| ES | -6.2% | +2960.1% | -2966.3% | before 1993 | 422 | OVERFIT |
| ESS | -20.9% | +5274.8% | -5295.8% | -11.8 pts | 264 | OVERFIT |
| ETN | +6.6% | +116541.5% | -116534.9% | before 1993 | 556 | OVERFIT |
| ETR | -30.3% | +19797.9% | -19828.3% | before 1993 | 446 | OVERFIT |
| EVRG | -49.5% | +5086.7% | -5136.2% | before 1993 | 460 | OVERFIT |
| EW | -35.2% | +6500.0% | -6535.2% | -9.8 pts | 236 | OVERFIT |
| EXE | n/a · history < 10y (5.6y) | |||||
| EXPD | -28.0% | +148324.6% | -148352.6% | before 1993 | 412 | OVERFIT |
| EXPE | -50.3% | +916.1% | -966.5% | -14.3 pts | 166 | OVERFIT |
| EXR | -4.4% | +2698.9% | -2703.4% | -11.5 pts | 150 | OVERFIT |
| F | -0.6% | +6752.4% | -6753.0% | before 1993 | 444 | OVERFIT |
| FCX | -27.5% | +1061.6% | -1089.2% | -11.7 pts | 226 | OVERFIT |
| FDS | +9.3% | +9088.9% | -9079.6% | -10.0 pts | 210 | OVERFIT |
| FDX | -2.5% | +53776.9% | -53779.5% | before 1993 | 462 | OVERFIT |
| FDXF | n/a · history < 10y (0.3y) | |||||
| FE | -3.2% | +563.0% | -566.3% | -9.6 pts | 168 | OVERFIT |
| FFIV | +15.9% | +5374.0% | -5358.1% | -8.0 pts | 210 | OVERFIT |
| FICO | -79.4% | +94747.8% | -94827.2% | before 1993 | 440 | OVERFIT |
| FIS | +6.3% | +363.8% | -357.5% | -9.3 pts | 182 | OVERFIT |
| FITB | -42.8% | +28280.0% | -28322.8% | before 1993 | 410 | OVERFIT |
| FIX | -16.4% | +11966.2% | -11982.7% | -10.1 pts | 222 | OVERFIT |
| FLEX | +165.3% | +7898.6% | -7733.3% | -7.9 pts | 272 | OVERFIT |
| FOX | n/a · history < 10y (7.5y) | |||||
| FOXA | n/a · history < 10y (7.5y) | |||||
| FRT | -72.4% | +24360.2% | -24432.6% | before 1993 | 632 | OVERFIT |
| FSLR | -23.4% | +716.1% | -739.5% | -12.3 pts | 136 | OVERFIT |
| FTV | +4.2% | +100.1% | -95.9% | -15.1 pts | 68 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| GD | +60.5% | +221689.9% | -221629.4% | before 1993 | 632 | OVERFIT |
| GDDY | +10.3% | +389.4% | -379.1% | -13.2 pts | 88 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| GE | -49.5% | +54356.2% | -54405.7% | before 1993 | 536 | OVERFIT |
| GEN | +74.7% | +12085.6% | -12010.9% | before 1993 | 268 | OVERFIT |
| GEV | n/a · history < 10y (2.4y) | |||||
| GIS | +7.6% | +15015.5% | -15007.9% | before 1993 | 392 | OVERFIT |
| GL | -20.3% | +12680.6% | -12700.9% | before 1993 | 396 | OVERFIT |
| GLW | +1.2% | +19301.2% | -19300.0% | before 1993 | 370 | OVERFIT |
| GM | +39.7% | +240.1% | -200.4% | -12.3 pts | 132 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| GNRC | -18.0% | +2091.1% | -2109.1% | -15.8 pts | 108 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| GPC | -15.8% | +12785.5% | -12801.4% | before 1993 | 356 | OVERFIT |
| GPN | +41.8% | +2567.9% | -2526.1% | -7.6 pts | 194 | OVERFIT |
| GRMN | +2.6% | +5377.3% | -5374.7% | -8.8 pts | 174 | OVERFIT |
| GWW | -61.0% | +55300.2% | -55361.2% | before 1993 | 564 | OVERFIT |
| HAL | -22.2% | +2860.8% | -2883.0% | before 1993 | 450 | OVERFIT |
| HAS | +43.0% | +201529.8% | -201486.8% | before 1993 | 532 | OVERFIT |
| HBAN | -29.7% | +3799.5% | -3829.3% | before 1993 | 368 | OVERFIT |
| HCA | +6.8% | +1699.7% | -1692.9% | -13.7 pts | 121 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| HIG | -13.1% | +951.1% | -964.2% | -10.9 pts | 210 | OVERFIT |
| HII | +1.6% | +883.6% | -882.0% | -14.1 pts | 110 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| HLT | +4.5% | +659.1% | -654.7% | -13.7 pts | 88 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| HOOD | n/a · history < 10y (5.1y) | |||||
| HPE | -3.7% | +625.0% | -628.7% | -15.2 pts | 84 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| HPQ | +29.4% | +77945.5% | -77916.1% | before 1993 | 524 | OVERFIT |
| HRL | -61.0% | +19046.1% | -19107.1% | before 1993 | 466 | OVERFIT |
| HSIC | -30.3% | +1913.1% | -1943.4% | -11.7 pts | 200 | OVERFIT |
| HST | -10.2% | +12843.9% | -12854.0% | before 1993 | 426 | OVERFIT |
| HSY | -48.0% | +53964.6% | -54012.6% | before 1993 | 390 | OVERFIT |
| HUBB | +6.1% | +3853.5% | -3847.4% | -10.9 pts | 260 | OVERFIT |
| HUM | -17.5% | +20168.9% | -20186.4% | before 1993 | 374 | OVERFIT |
| HWM | n/a · history < 10y (9.8y) | |||||
| IBKR | -18.6% | +1526.1% | -1544.7% | -11.8 pts | 112 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| ICE | -22.9% | +2307.9% | -2330.7% | -12.4 pts | 160 | OVERFIT |
| IEX | -27.7% | +12761.2% | -12789.0% | before 1993 | 378 | OVERFIT |
| IFF | -49.9% | +4754.9% | -4804.8% | before 1993 | 406 | OVERFIT |
| INCY | +77.2% | +6471.7% | -6394.5% | -9.2 pts | 240 | OVERFIT |
| INVH | n/a · history < 10y (9.6y) | |||||
| IP | -43.7% | +4590.1% | -4633.9% | before 1993 | 498 | OVERFIT |
| IQV | +10.2% | +520.3% | -510.0% | -13.5 pts | 122 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| IR | n/a · history < 10y (9.3y) | |||||
| IRM | -25.7% | +9911.6% | -9937.2% | -11.3 pts | 258 | OVERFIT |
| IT | -37.2% | +6431.0% | -6468.2% | -12.3 pts | 246 | OVERFIT |
| ITW | -30.9% | +51254.1% | -51285.0% | before 1993 | 526 | OVERFIT |
| IVZ | +20.8% | +1093.8% | -1073.0% | -10.1 pts | 276 | OVERFIT |
| J | -54.1% | +33544.7% | -33598.8% | before 1993 | 488 | OVERFIT |
| JBHT | -36.9% | +24926.6% | -24963.5% | before 1993 | 390 | OVERFIT |
| JBL | -28.2% | +41217.7% | -41245.9% | -11.9 pts | 276 | OVERFIT |
| JCI | -51.4% | +4376.5% | -4428.0% | before 1993 | 350 | OVERFIT |
| JKHY | +49.9% | +71288.2% | -71238.4% | before 1993 | 334 | OVERFIT |
| KEY | -45.8% | +1405.6% | -1451.4% | before 1993 | 286 | OVERFIT |
| KEYS | -7.3% | +1042.3% | -1049.6% | -15.0 pts | 78 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| KIM | -12.6% | +3036.5% | -3049.1% | before 1993 | 306 | OVERFIT |
| KKR | +11.5% | +1784.9% | -1773.4% | -14.1 pts | 120 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| KMB | -26.2% | +16039.9% | -16066.1% | before 1993 | 350 | OVERFIT |
| KMI | -3.5% | +117.5% | -121.0% | -14.1 pts | 86 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| KR | -36.2% | +182706.1% | -182742.3% | before 1993 | 598 | OVERFIT |
| KVUE | n/a · history < 10y (3.3y) | |||||
| L | +17.3% | +22398.8% | -22381.5% | before 1993 | 406 | OVERFIT |
| LDOS | -14.5% | +530.2% | -544.7% | -11.9 pts | 86 | OVERFIT |
| LEN | +20.8% | +29032.9% | -29012.1% | before 1993 | 476 | OVERFIT |
| LH | -21.9% | +1408.2% | -1430.1% | before 1993 | 312 | OVERFIT |
| LHX | -39.4% | +8519.5% | -8558.9% | before 1993 | 390 | OVERFIT |
| LII | +12.4% | +3122.4% | -3110.0% | -8.1 pts | 178 | OVERFIT |
| LLY | -35.3% | +129720.0% | -129755.3% | before 1993 | 402 | OVERFIT |
| LMT | -44.4% | +67444.7% | -67489.1% | before 1993 | 584 | OVERFIT |
| LNT | -38.6% | +9408.5% | -9447.1% | before 1993 | 456 | OVERFIT |
| LOW | -0.0% | +77328.4% | -77328.4% | before 1993 | 418 | OVERFIT |
| LULU | -21.2% | +759.0% | -780.2% | -12.4 pts | 138 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| LUV | -6.3% | +24508.5% | -24514.8% | before 1993 | 372 | OVERFIT |
| LVS | -24.9% | +50.3% | -75.3% | -12.2 pts | 138 | OVERFIT |
| LYB | -1.7% | +648.8% | -650.5% | -14.1 pts | 126 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| LYV | +1.4% | +1558.0% | -1556.5% | -11.1 pts | 130 | OVERFIT |
| MA | -19.6% | +14066.9% | -14086.6% | -12.3 pts | 174 | OVERFIT |
| MAA | -21.7% | +3525.2% | -3546.8% | -11.6 pts | 210 | OVERFIT |
| MAS | -30.7% | +7423.1% | -7453.8% | before 1993 | 382 | OVERFIT |
| MCK | +35.7% | +6946.5% | -6910.8% | -10.2 pts | 256 | OVERFIT |
| MCO | -24.5% | +7753.9% | -7778.4% | -11.9 pts | 262 | OVERFIT |
| MDT | -65.6% | +51421.0% | -51486.6% | before 1993 | 512 | OVERFIT |
| MET | +2.6% | +1176.9% | -1174.3% | -8.2 pts | 182 | OVERFIT |
| MGM | -66.0% | +1501.4% | -1567.4% | before 1993 | 312 | OVERFIT |
| MKC | -75.9% | +14401.8% | -14477.8% | before 1993 | 586 | OVERFIT |
| MLM | +4.4% | +3089.6% | -3085.2% | -10.8 pts | 260 | OVERFIT |
| MO | -37.5% | +2914781.4% | -2914818.9% | before 1993 | 576 | OVERFIT |
| MOS | -16.2% | +268.9% | -285.1% | before 1993 | 310 | OVERFIT |
| MPC | -5.4% | +2972.8% | -2978.2% | -14.9 pts | 102 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| MRNA | n/a · history < 10y (7.7y) | |||||
| MRSH | -3.5% | +21192.9% | -21196.4% | before 1993 | 512 | OVERFIT |
| MS | +33.3% | +6159.1% | -6125.8% | -10.0 pts | 272 | OVERFIT |
| MSCI | -39.9% | +2406.7% | -2446.6% | -14.0 pts | 122 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| MSI | +87.3% | +79243.2% | -79155.9% | before 1993 | 572 | OVERFIT |
| MTB | -1.3% | +105049.8% | -105051.2% | before 1993 | 666 | OVERFIT |
| MTD | +51.7% | +9346.3% | -9294.6% | -8.0 pts | 227 | OVERFIT |
| NCLH | +0.4% | -34.9% | +35.2% | -14.7 pts | 96 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| NDAQ | +24.4% | +2371.2% | -2346.8% | -10.0 pts | 132 | OVERFIT |
| NDSN | -14.2% | +37769.3% | -37783.5% | before 1993 | 382 | OVERFIT |
| NEE | -38.8% | +23772.9% | -23811.6% | before 1993 | 452 | OVERFIT |
| NEM | -44.8% | +2099.8% | -2144.6% | before 1993 | 394 | OVERFIT |
| NI | -52.2% | +5234.9% | -5287.1% | before 1993 | 554 | OVERFIT |
| NOC | -29.6% | +23369.3% | -23398.8% | before 1993 | 388 | OVERFIT |
| NOW | +2.7% | +2907.9% | -2905.2% | -14.7 pts | 100 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| NRG | +0.5% | +1442.6% | -1442.0% | -11.0 pts | 134 | OVERFIT |
| NSC | +46.1% | +24520.7% | -24474.5% | before 1993 | 388 | OVERFIT |
| NTAP | +229.4% | +19659.8% | -19430.4% | -6.6 pts | 218 | OVERFIT |
| NTRS | +26.5% | +53074.8% | -53048.3% | before 1993 | 494 | OVERFIT |
| NUE | -43.7% | +70209.1% | -70252.8% | before 1993 | 434 | OVERFIT |
| NVR | +10.6% | +61512.0% | -61501.4% | -10.5 pts | 320 | OVERFIT |
| NWS | +7.4% | +152.4% | -145.0% | -13.8 pts | 84 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| NWSA | -2.7% | +122.2% | -124.9% | -14.6 pts | 70 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| O | -27.8% | +5366.4% | -5394.2% | -12.1 pts | 232 | OVERFIT |
| OKE | -4.2% | +19101.6% | -19105.8% | before 1993 | 334 | OVERFIT |
| OMC | -57.9% | +15677.5% | -15735.4% | before 1993 | 466 | OVERFIT |
| ON | +66.3% | +208.7% | -142.4% | -6.5 pts | 144 | OVERFIT |
| ORCL | +25.2% | +296729.4% | -296704.2% | before 1993 | 294 | OVERFIT |
| OTIS | n/a · history < 10y (6.5y) | |||||
| OXY | +28.6% | +3580.0% | -3551.4% | before 1993 | 356 | OVERFIT |
| PCG | +6.6% | +1389.7% | -1383.1% | before 1993 | 486 | OVERFIT |
| PEG | -22.7% | +18884.4% | -18907.1% | before 1993 | 390 | OVERFIT |
| PFE | -43.0% | +20062.7% | -20105.7% | before 1993 | 532 | OVERFIT |
| PFG | -24.1% | +920.1% | -944.2% | -11.2 pts | 200 | OVERFIT |
| PGR | +10.4% | +819581.9% | -819571.5% | before 1993 | 486 | OVERFIT |
| PH | -41.7% | +41129.4% | -41171.1% | before 1993 | 426 | OVERFIT |
| PHM | +52.8% | +95847.7% | -95794.8% | before 1993 | 474 | OVERFIT |
| PLD | -1.6% | +1782.5% | -1784.2% | -9.4 pts | 214 | OVERFIT |
| PM | -15.0% | +785.7% | -800.7% | -13.1 pts | 148 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| PNC | -37.3% | +37937.9% | -37975.2% | before 1993 | 482 | OVERFIT |
| PNR | -22.2% | +11510.8% | -11533.1% | before 1993 | 552 | OVERFIT |
| PNW | -14.4% | +2247.6% | -2261.9% | before 1993 | 450 | OVERFIT |
| PODD | +49.1% | +831.5% | -782.4% | -8.7 pts | 128 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| PPG | +33.8% | +21327.4% | -21293.6% | before 1993 | 360 | OVERFIT |
| PPL | -44.5% | +7311.8% | -7356.3% | before 1993 | 398 | OVERFIT |
| PRU | +23.1% | +767.8% | -744.7% | -9.2 pts | 192 | OVERFIT |
| PSA | -19.6% | +13958.7% | -13978.3% | before 1993 | 384 | OVERFIT |
| PSKY | +72.1% | -34.8% | +106.9% | -8.4 pts | 124 | OVERFIT |
| PSX | +0.5% | +1071.7% | -1071.1% | -14.5 pts | 102 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| PTC | -27.8% | +8443.5% | -8471.2% | before 1993 | 314 | OVERFIT |
| PWR | -6.2% | +8155.1% | -8161.3% | -9.4 pts | 246 | OVERFIT |
| Q | n/a · history < 10y (0.8y) | |||||
| RCL | +0.0% | +4611.6% | -4611.6% | -10.9 pts | 312 | OVERFIT |
| REG | +5.4% | +2046.5% | -2041.1% | -10.7 pts | 258 | OVERFIT |
| RF | -35.4% | +7230.0% | -7265.3% | before 1993 | 442 | OVERFIT |
| RJF | +10.6% | +52691.1% | -52680.4% | before 1993 | 448 | OVERFIT |
| RL | -4.1% | +1376.9% | -1381.0% | -9.7 pts | 242 | OVERFIT |
| RMD | +63.3% | +43254.4% | -43191.1% | -9.2 pts | 278 | OVERFIT |
| ROK | -8.8% | +57325.7% | -57334.5% | before 1993 | 362 | OVERFIT |
| ROL | -25.5% | +36503.9% | -36529.5% | before 1993 | 402 | OVERFIT |
| RSG | -19.2% | +1977.7% | -1996.8% | -9.6 pts | 206 | OVERFIT |
| RTX | -43.6% | +231131.9% | -231175.5% | before 1993 | 498 | OVERFIT |
| RVTY | -24.8% | +25547.2% | -25572.0% | before 1993 | 546 | OVERFIT |
| SBAC | -33.3% | +2259.6% | -2292.9% | -10.0 pts | 178 | OVERFIT |
| SCHW | -21.7% | +45501.9% | -45523.6% | before 1993 | 426 | OVERFIT |
| SJM | -23.3% | +1119.0% | -1142.2% | -11.9 pts | 272 | OVERFIT |
| SLB | -65.0% | +1125.4% | -1190.5% | before 1993 | 290 | OVERFIT |
| SMCI | +72.4% | +4155.7% | -4083.3% | -8.2 pts | 136 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| SNA | -67.5% | +12522.0% | -12589.5% | before 1993 | 542 | OVERFIT |
| SO | -23.4% | +32617.4% | -32640.8% | before 1993 | 400 | OVERFIT |
| SOLV | n/a · history < 10y (2.4y) | |||||
| SPG | +49.2% | +5330.6% | -5281.4% | -9.7 pts | 194 | OVERFIT |
| SPGI | -36.9% | +140503.3% | -140540.2% | before 1993 | 516 | OVERFIT |
| SRE | -31.3% | +1463.0% | -1494.3% | -10.2 pts | 178 | OVERFIT |
| STE | -20.0% | +15491.4% | -15511.4% | before 1993 | 236 | OVERFIT |
| STLD | -23.5% | +7831.8% | -7855.3% | -10.9 pts | 250 | OVERFIT |
| STT | +31.8% | +199686.1% | -199654.4% | before 1993 | 536 | OVERFIT |
| STZ | -3.9% | +10007.0% | -10010.9% | before 1993 | 232 | OVERFIT |
| SW | +3.9% | +775.0% | -771.0% | -11.8 pts | 344 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| SWK | +9.7% | +5887.9% | -5878.2% | before 1993 | 445 | OVERFIT |
| SWKS | +36.6% | +1317.3% | -1280.7% | before 1993 | 454 | OVERFIT |
| SYF | +36.3% | +325.2% | -288.9% | -11.4 pts | 98 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| SYK | +1.7% | +430371.4% | -430369.8% | before 1993 | 468 | OVERFIT |
| SYY | +72.6% | +115885.9% | -115813.3% | before 1993 | 602 | OVERFIT |
| T | +19.9% | +10219.8% | -10199.9% | before 1993 | 312 | OVERFIT |
| TAP | -5.3% | +518.8% | -524.1% | before 1993 | 502 | OVERFIT |
| TDG | -18.2% | +13285.3% | -13303.5% | -12.0 pts | 178 | OVERFIT |
| TDY | +0.8% | +7164.6% | -7163.8% | -8.4 pts | 174 | OVERFIT |
| TECH | +145.1% | +79246.8% | -79101.7% | before 1993 | 246 | OVERFIT |
| TEL | -11.2% | +671.1% | -682.2% | -11.4 pts | 134 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| TFC | +14.1% | +10226.4% | -10212.4% | before 1993 | 424 | OVERFIT |
| TGT | -47.1% | +90566.5% | -90613.5% | before 1993 | 474 | OVERFIT |
| TJX | -29.0% | +36154.4% | -36183.4% | before 1993 | 330 | OVERFIT |
| TKO | -26.2% | +1638.9% | -1665.1% | -9.9 pts | 168 | OVERFIT |
| TMO | +39.0% | +36784.3% | -36745.3% | before 1993 | 488 | OVERFIT |
| TPL | -19.9% | +75277.1% | -75297.0% | before 1993 | 588 | OVERFIT |
| TPR | +10.1% | +7766.6% | -7756.6% | -8.3 pts | 194 | OVERFIT |
| TRGP | +16.0% | +2202.9% | -2186.9% | -13.4 pts | 86 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| TRMB | +16.5% | +3366.4% | -3349.9% | before 1993 | 320 | OVERFIT |
| TROW | +23.4% | +35932.6% | -35909.2% | before 1993 | 334 | OVERFIT |
| TSCO | +2.2% | +15199.0% | -15196.8% | -10.8 pts | 226 | OVERFIT |
| TSN | -43.5% | +4340.8% | -4384.3% | before 1993 | 374 | OVERFIT |
| TT | -37.0% | +49748.2% | -49785.2% | before 1993 | 382 | OVERFIT |
| TTD | n/a · history < 10y (9.9y) | |||||
| TXT | -65.4% | +4901.2% | -4966.6% | before 1993 | 442 | OVERFIT |
| TYL | -50.6% | +43359.1% | -43409.7% | before 1993 | 494 | OVERFIT |
| UAL | +13.7% | +240.6% | -226.9% | -10.5 pts | 152 | OVERFIT |
| UBER | n/a · history < 10y (7.3y) | |||||
| UDR | +25.0% | +14119.5% | -14094.5% | before 1993 | 450 | OVERFIT |
| UHS | -34.3% | +15293.2% | -15327.5% | before 1993 | 462 | OVERFIT |
| ULTA | +62.5% | +1721.3% | -1658.8% | -8.4 pts | 154 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| UNP | -51.9% | +30311.4% | -30363.2% | before 1993 | 476 | OVERFIT |
| UPS | -35.2% | +233.2% | -268.4% | -10.1 pts | 198 | OVERFIT |
| URI | +18.7% | +7088.3% | -7069.6% | -8.8 pts | 190 | OVERFIT |
| USB | -57.3% | +44799.0% | -44856.3% | before 1993 | 516 | OVERFIT |
| VEEV | -32.3% | +668.8% | -701.1% | -17.2 pts | 60 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| VICI | n/a · history < 10y (8.7y) | |||||
| VLO | -4.5% | +23394.0% | -23398.5% | before 1993 | 332 | OVERFIT |
| VLTO | n/a · history < 10y (2.9y) | |||||
| VMC | -8.0% | +48759.3% | -48767.3% | before 1993 | 682 | OVERFIT |
| VRSK | -15.1% | +648.8% | -663.8% | -15.4 pts | 118 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| VRSN | -17.4% | +5322.0% | -5339.5% | -10.0 pts | 212 | OVERFIT |
| VRT | n/a · history < 10y (8.1y) | |||||
| VST | n/a · history < 10y (9.9y) | |||||
| VTR | +1.0% | +1496.8% | -1495.8% | -9.7 pts | 232 | OVERFIT |
| VTRS | -22.9% | +1568.8% | -1591.7% | before 1993 | 394 | OVERFIT |
| VZ | +1.3% | +4889.1% | -4887.8% | before 1993 | 356 | OVERFIT |
| WAB | -43.4% | +4137.7% | -4181.1% | -12.6 pts | 250 | OVERFIT |
| WAT | -4.7% | +10865.4% | -10870.1% | -10.7 pts | 238 | OVERFIT |
| WEC | +22.3% | +23656.8% | -23634.5% | before 1993 | 400 | OVERFIT |
| WELL | -20.4% | +58774.1% | -58794.5% | before 1993 | 482 | OVERFIT |
| WFC | -34.1% | +63452.2% | -63486.4% | before 1993 | 620 | OVERFIT |
| WM | -44.4% | +8471.2% | -8515.6% | before 1993 | 344 | OVERFIT |
| WMB | +61.1% | +11974.1% | -11913.0% | before 1993 | 390 | OVERFIT |
| WSM | +52.2% | +69865.8% | -69813.6% | before 1993 | 384 | OVERFIT |
| WST | -33.4% | +79208.6% | -79242.0% | before 1993 | 564 | OVERFIT |
| WTW | +5.9% | +1181.6% | -1175.8% | -9.2 pts | 176 | OVERFIT |
| WY | -1.8% | +1781.4% | -1783.2% | before 1993 | 464 | OVERFIT |
| WYNN | +33.6% | +1217.6% | -1184.0% | -10.2 pts | 156 | OVERFIT |
| XOM | -44.0% | +183657.9% | -183701.8% | before 1993 | 586 | OVERFIT |
| XYL | +0.9% | +455.0% | -454.1% | -15.2 pts | 100 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| XYZ | +47.0% | +527.5% | -480.5% | -11.1 pts | 94 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| YUM | -10.6% | +4282.5% | -4293.1% | -9.8 pts | 208 | OVERFIT |
| ZBH | +5.8% | +292.2% | -286.4% | -9.4 pts | 194 | OVERFIT |
| ZBRA | +101.2% | +8617.7% | -8516.5% | before 1993 | 326 | OVERFIT |
| ZTS | +3.0% | +179.3% | -176.3% | -14.4 pts | 122 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| Asset | Return | Buy and hold | Difference | Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr) | Trades | Out of sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | +1.6% | -3.1% | +4.8% | -11.0 pts | 197 | OVERFIT |
| GBP/USD | -0.1% | -21.2% | +21.2% | -11.0 pts | 188 | OVERFIT |
| USD/JPY | -16.9% | +40.2% | -57.1% | -10.8 pts | 224 | OVERFIT |
| USD/MXN | -6.2% | +49.9% | -56.2% | -11.3 pts | 130 | OVERFIT |
| AUD/USD | +13.0% | -6.6% | +19.6% | -10.6 pts | 150 | OVERFIT |
| USD/CAD | -0.6% | +1.7% | -2.3% | -11.2 pts | 180 | OVERFIT |
| USD/CHF | -1.5% | -41.4% | +40.0% | -11.2 pts | 134 | OVERFIT |
| NZD/USD | +1.7% | -8.1% | +9.8% | -11.0 pts | 188 | OVERFIT |
| Asset | Return | Buy and hold | Difference | Vs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr) | Trades | Out of sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | -7.7% | +17075.3% | -17083.0% | -14.2 pts | 114 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| Ether | n/a · history < 10y (8.8y) | |||||
| Litecoin | +3.4% | +859.3% | -855.9% | -13.6 pts | 78 | INCONCLUSIVE |
| Solana | n/a · history < 10y (6.4y) | |||||
| Cardano | n/a · history < 10y (8.8y) | |||||
| Dogecoin | n/a · history < 10y (8.8y) | |||||
5-minute to 4-hour bars, every asset from where intraday history exists (stocks 2016, forex 2003, crypto 2015), against holding that same asset. Difference versus buy-and-hold. No walk-forward (see protocol).
| Asset | 5 min | 15 min | 1 hour | 4 hours | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Litecoin | -1348.2% | -1348.2% | -1336.4% | -1303.0% | -855.9% |
| Solana | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Cardano | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Dogecoin | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| EUR/USD | -30.8% | -9.4% | -1.3% | -6.8% | +4.8% |
| GBP/USD | -34.0% | -9.6% | +4.4% | +9.6% | +21.2% |
| USD/JPY | -88.2% | -62.7% | -50.6% | -43.0% | -57.1% |
| AUD/USD | — | — | — | — | +19.6% |
| USD/CAD | -89.3% | -64.4% | -5.5% | -8.9% | -2.3% |
| USD/CHF | -29.3% | -14.4% | +22.2% | +25.8% | +40.0% |
| NZD/USD | -30.4% | -6.4% | -7.2% | +15.5% | +9.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -452.8% | -436.2% | -399.3% | -371.8% | -3102.8% |
| Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) | -703.9% | -690.6% | -651.8% | -619.7% | -1583.7% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | -306.0% | -290.5% | -251.5% | -228.6% | -813.5% |
| Emergentes (EEM) | -268.1% | -253.6% | -216.0% | -193.2% | -823.9% |
| Oro (GLD) | -396.3% | -381.0% | -336.6% | -307.3% | -838.6% |
| Bonos 20 años (TLT) | -88.3% | -64.5% | -36.0% | -5.6% | -124.3% |
| AAPL | -1348.8% | -1333.1% | -1287.6% | -1272.3% | -322827.6% |
| AMGN | -376.8% | -359.7% | -299.4% | -279.3% | -187131.1% |
| AMZN | -835.8% | -816.8% | -789.5% | -763.9% | -265162.2% |
| AXP | -572.7% | -559.9% | -504.3% | -478.1% | -27089.4% |
| BA | -165.0% | -150.5% | -116.1% | -80.5% | -108709.1% |
| CAT | -1512.2% | -1499.2% | -1449.8% | -1427.2% | -172722.6% |
| CRM | -338.2% | -317.8% | -266.1% | -241.2% | -5993.5% |
| CSCO | -569.7% | -555.7% | -486.7% | -498.3% | -222952.6% |
| CVX | -356.9% | -341.9% | -304.8% | -268.7% | -68058.2% |
| DIS | -111.3% | -93.4% | -38.5% | +12.7% | -189882.9% |
| GOOGL | -920.1% | -907.2% | -862.0% | -822.4% | -13522.2% |
| GS | -722.5% | -707.6% | -666.7% | -637.6% | -2050.5% |
| HD | -322.4% | -306.5% | -258.0% | -257.4% | -1985763.5% |
| HON | -278.9% | -260.3% | -217.5% | -202.3% | -21091.3% |
| IBM | -285.3% | -268.1% | -219.3% | -197.9% | -16260.3% |
| JNJ | -355.7% | -339.5% | -292.5% | -273.5% | -445213.8% |
| JPM | -741.4% | -727.2% | -690.9% | -639.8% | -34538.0% |
| KO | -292.1% | -277.3% | -240.1% | -211.1% | -199394.2% |
| MCD | -282.5% | -265.0% | -231.5% | -195.9% | -236694.5% |
| MMM | -198.3% | -180.8% | -136.2% | -104.9% | -31199.9% |
| MRK | -411.1% | -394.0% | -347.1% | -334.3% | -233399.8% |
| MSFT | -1076.3% | -1065.7% | -1025.1% | -992.8% | -859504.2% |
| NKE | -71.8% | -46.8% | -17.9% | +11.9% | -31973.1% |
| NVDA | -27585.7% | -27570.1% | -27532.2% | -27493.2% | -587720.6% |
| PG | -243.7% | -222.1% | -194.8% | -159.9% | -59713.0% |
| SHW | -448.1% | -425.8% | -391.2% | -361.6% | -231807.5% |
| TRV | -419.4% | -404.7% | -366.2% | -327.1% | -12332.2% |
| UNH | -400.1% | -383.0% | -360.6% | -337.9% | -353279.6% |
| V | -542.6% | -530.8% | -489.7% | -459.7% | -2966.7% |
| WMT | -607.1% | -595.1% | -543.9% | -521.4% | -915422.4% |
| ABNB | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| ADBE | -315.0% | -297.5% | -268.1% | -231.2% | -147745.5% |
| ADI | -813.2% | -797.2% | -755.0% | -689.7% | -81400.4% |
| ADP | -438.3% | -422.2% | -379.9% | -338.6% | -74227.4% |
| ADSK | -431.0% | -409.5% | -390.9% | -354.7% | -58093.2% |
| AEP | -303.5% | -290.2% | -252.2% | -230.2% | -13854.0% |
| ALAB | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| ALNY | -254.1% | -231.3% | -182.4% | -165.1% | -3344.3% |
| AMAT | -2817.6% | -2808.8% | -2730.3% | -2700.2% | -664910.3% |
| AMD | -16807.2% | -16793.1% | -16753.6% | -16717.2% | -14781.8% |
| APP | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| ARM | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| ASML | -2158.3% | -2147.3% | -2102.1% | -2078.6% | -96257.3% |
| AVGO | -3402.8% | -3393.4% | -3330.3% | -3328.0% | -32457.8% |
| AXON | -3569.1% | -3554.4% | -3502.4% | -3469.0% | -123026.4% |
| BKNG | -421.3% | -401.3% | -369.6% | -348.3% | -832.5% |
| BKR | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | -987.2% |
| CCEP | -414.2% | -401.1% | -360.3% | -334.1% | -7115.6% |
| CDNS | -1657.1% | -1639.6% | -1585.3% | -1562.0% | -16701.8% |
| CEG | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| CMCSA | -134.4% | -118.7% | -80.8% | -49.7% | -47104.7% |
| COST | -706.4% | -692.7% | -662.6% | -620.2% | -12782.8% |
| CPRT | -699.4% | -686.0% | -649.3% | -608.1% | -21551.5% |
| CRWD | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| CSX | -695.9% | -686.3% | -655.3% | -616.9% | -40466.7% |
| CTAS | -1030.8% | -1019.1% | -986.1% | -937.6% | -123401.4% |
| DASH | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| DDOG | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| DXCM | -461.7% | -435.4% | -390.3% | -373.1% | -3026.7% |
| EA | — | — | — | — | n/a |
| EXC | -316.6% | -303.6% | -262.2% | -239.5% | -17733.5% |
| FANG | -392.5% | -381.2% | -347.3% | -307.2% | -1355.7% |
| FAST | -655.8% | -641.2% | -600.1% | -570.8% | -262353.5% |
| FER | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | -613.4% |
| FTNT | -2745.1% | -2731.4% | -2681.8% | -2670.6% | -10172.7% |
| GEHC | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| GILD | -211.1% | -187.5% | -135.5% | -129.7% | -33571.1% |
| HONA | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| IDXX | -779.9% | -764.9% | -719.8% | -700.0% | -58786.1% |
| INTC | -330.1% | -319.0% | -269.0% | -261.4% | -49255.5% |
| INTU | -412.6% | -396.3% | -363.0% | -327.3% | -15449.0% |
| ISRG | -611.6% | -594.9% | -554.0% | -504.3% | -18530.1% |
| KHC | -53.8% | -36.8% | +3.6% | +24.1% | +35.3% |
| KLAC | -3063.3% | -3050.4% | -3003.0% | -2965.7% | -289455.6% |
| LIN | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | -10779.5% |
| LITE | -4007.4% | -3991.6% | -3957.6% | -3944.4% | -5217.3% |
| LRCX | -4481.0% | -4472.0% | -4415.2% | -4370.4% | -159768.0% |
| MAR | -593.1% | -578.3% | -536.9% | -515.2% | -2538.3% |
| MCHP | -390.3% | -379.5% | -340.1% | -310.9% | -41969.3% |
| MDLZ | -179.6% | -164.2% | -123.2% | -113.8% | -467.9% |
| MELI | -1799.8% | -1785.5% | -1735.0% | -1710.2% | -6866.8% |
| META | -568.6% | -554.5% | -498.3% | -477.1% | -1395.3% |
| MNST | -193.4% | -178.9% | -120.3% | -97.5% | -62005.6% |
| MPWR | -2250.4% | -2240.8% | -2211.8% | -2151.2% | -15006.0% |
| MRVL | -2679.4% | -2669.5% | -2636.3% | -2599.8% | -1657.0% |
| MSTR | -743.8% | -734.8% | -680.8% | -639.9% | -988.3% |
| MU | -6675.4% | -6654.0% | -6624.0% | -6589.3% | -70832.9% |
| NFLX | -742.8% | -723.7% | -681.4% | -667.1% | -67582.6% |
| NXPI | -299.3% | -282.7% | -239.9% | -219.4% | -1750.8% |
| ODFL | -1063.3% | -1047.2% | -1006.5% | -986.3% | -36429.8% |
| ORLY | -539.1% | -524.7% | -480.4% | -459.3% | -55231.5% |
| PANW | -1299.2% | -1289.2% | -1247.4% | -1189.4% | -4264.3% |
| PCAR | -578.5% | -560.6% | -522.6% | -484.6% | -57100.0% |
| PDD | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| PEP | -194.8% | -184.4% | -147.9% | -121.4% | -37769.4% |
| PLTR | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| PYPL | -154.9% | -133.7% | -85.4% | -52.9% | -33.9% |
| QCOM | -437.5% | -414.3% | -365.2% | -329.7% | -50458.3% |
| REGN | -153.2% | -136.8% | -90.0% | -78.1% | -3731.7% |
| ROP | -243.3% | -224.9% | -180.8% | -163.2% | -25965.9% |
| ROST | -464.0% | -446.9% | -395.9% | -391.0% | -55719.9% |
| SBUX | -230.6% | -214.3% | -161.7% | -141.8% | -43057.7% |
| SHOP | -5944.4% | -5927.9% | -5904.2% | -5844.0% | -8573.5% |
| SNDK | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| SNPS | -984.4% | -973.6% | -946.6% | -910.1% | -5479.8% |
| STX | -3651.8% | -3640.3% | -3580.3% | -3555.4% | -15561.7% |
| TER | -1856.2% | -1836.0% | -1793.5% | -1722.8% | -31363.0% |
| TMUS | -488.8% | -478.9% | -429.5% | -404.2% | -327.1% |
| TRI | -360.8% | -344.5% | -299.8% | -271.5% | -600.3% |
| TSLA | -2340.6% | -2320.2% | -2279.7% | -2257.0% | -22913.9% |
| TTWO | -687.5% | -673.9% | -635.6% | -597.1% | -5527.8% |
| TXN | -636.6% | -623.0% | -586.8% | -545.3% | -37978.3% |
| VRTX | -439.1% | -424.9% | -375.7% | -369.7% | -11976.5% |
| WBD | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | -309.4% |
| WDAY | -262.4% | -239.5% | -226.9% | -195.8% | -322.1% |
| WDC | -1170.7% | -1146.0% | -1114.6% | -1092.4% | -66250.4% |
| XEL | -293.0% | -279.2% | -238.5% | -202.9% | -7420.7% |
| KDP | -276.4% | -263.6% | -238.3% | -187.2% | -1096.2% |
| USD/MXN | -83.8% | -62.3% | -61.8% | -64.0% | -56.2% |
| Bitcoin | -18084.8% | -18084.8% | -18079.1% | -18042.5% | -17083.0% |
| Ether | — | — | — | — | n/a |
9 / 472 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 472
| Parameters | Return | Sharpe | Max DD | Vs. index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| window 38 | -21.8% | -1.82 | -29.1% | -3102.8% |
| window 15 | -9.1% | -2.10 | -18.9% | -3090.1% |
| window 60 | -16.8% | -1.80 | -24.6% | -3097.8% |
| window 90 | -11.2% | -1.70 | -21.4% | -3092.3% |
A rule that only works at the exact textbook numbers and dies one notch away is not an edge: it is luck.
Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%
Deflated Sharpe: 0.00 (< 0.95)
Robustness suite: FRAGILE
By halves: First half did not beat (-13.8% vs +237.3%); Second half did not beat (-9.3% vs +843.1%).
5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].
Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.
Deflated Sharpe 0.0 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.
Computed on 2026-09-10 · period: each asset from its first bar (1962-01-01 to 2026-08-31) · round-trip costs: stocks and index 10 bps, forex 2 bps, crypto 30 bps · artifact baf59d3a43e0 · Finaxion engine
Each market's page, ordered by annual excess over the S&P 500. The first 9 are shown; the rest are in the sitemap. See all 9 markets
Finaxion Research (2026). ICT / Smart Money: the fair value gap: works in few markets. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact baf59d3a43e0. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ict-fair-value-gap