FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Smart Money / ICT / Wyckoff · Updated 2026-09-10

ICT / Smart Money: the order block

Works in few markets

Its ground: stocks and indices, on 1-hour, on a single asset — it beats in 8 of 904 combinations.

Markets beaten
4 / 464
Vs. index
-10.8 pts/yr
Total return
3.0%
Sharpe
-7.33
Max drawdown
-1.5%
Trades
34
10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyBuy and hold

Detail on the index (S&P 500), which is the reference for the chart, the robustness suite and the neighbours.

What works and what does not in ICT / Smart Money: the order block?

ICT / Smart Money: the order block does not work consistently in any asset class; it does least badly on single stocks: 8 of 888 (1%), and worst on cryptocurrencies: it beats in 0 of 13. It improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 110; on 4-hour bars, in 2 of 110. Its best daily market is EW: -8.1 points a year over the S&P 500 across 26 years, 14 trades; its worst daily market is Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones): -19.4 points a year against the S&P 500. Of the 4 daily markets where it beats, 4 hold out of sample (100%), but no neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.

  1. There is no asset class where ICT / Smart Money: the order block works consistently; it does least badly on single stocks: 8 of 888 (1%).
  2. It does worst on cryptocurrencies: it beats in 0 of 13.
  3. Of the 4 daily markets where it beats, 4 hold out of sample (100%).
  4. No neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.
  5. It improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 110; on 4-hour bars, in 2 of 110.
  6. Its best daily market is EW: -8.1 points a year over the S&P 500 across 26 years, 14 trades.
  7. Its worst daily market is Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones): -19.4 points a year against the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 543c64263612.

The promise

“Smart money leaves a footprint: the last bearish candle before a bullish impulse is an order block. When price returns to it, buy.”

Exactly what we tested

Mechanical approximation: after a 16-bar bullish impulse we mark the last prior bearish candle; a return of price to that zone → entry; exit after 20 bars. ICT is discretionary: this tests the most-cited version, not any specific trader.

Why

In every market

Indices and ETFs · 0 / 6 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 6

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (SPY)+3.0%+3081.0%-3078.0%-10.8 pts34OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-7.2%+1565.8%-1573.0%-8.8 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
Russell 2000 (IWM)-3.7%+801.9%-805.6%-8.8 pts18OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)-7.5%+830.9%-838.4%-12.0 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
Oro (GLD)-2.7%+820.3%-823.0%-11.1 pts26OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-1.8%+131.2%-132.9%-11.3 pts62OVERFIT

Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · max 10)-33.0%+3081.0%-3114.0%-12.0 pts472

Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · max 20)-50.1%+3081.0%-3131.1%-12.9 pts858

Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · max 25)-95.0%+3081.0%-3176.1%-19.4 pts5888

Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 4 / 454 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 200

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
AAPL-8.0%+322813.1%-322821.1%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
AMGN-3.4%+187272.6%-187276.0%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
AMZN-2.5%+265196.1%-265198.6%-9.8 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
AXP+6.5%+27029.4%-27022.9%before 199320OVERFIT
BA-4.0%+108724.7%-108728.6%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
CAT+1.6%+172708.3%-172706.6%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
CRM-6.1%+5992.9%-5999.0%-11.2 pts12OVERFIT
CSCO+8.8%+222956.6%-222947.8%before 199316OVERFIT
CVX-6.0%+68037.6%-68043.7%before 199332INCONCLUSIVE
DIS+4.3%+189847.3%-189842.9%before 199320INCONCLUSIVE
GOOGL+2.1%+13534.3%-13532.2%-11.2 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
GS-3.4%+2027.1%-2030.6%-8.6 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
HD-3.9%+1985758.9%-1985762.8%before 199320OVERFIT
HON+1.6%+21058.8%-21057.2%before 199334OVERFIT
IBM-2.6%+16203.8%-16206.5%before 199346OVERFIT
JNJ-2.2%+445196.6%-445198.8%before 199336OVERFIT
JPM-2.7%+34522.5%-34525.2%before 199324OVERFIT
KO+6.0%+199349.6%-199343.6%before 199344OVERFIT
MCD+2.5%+236707.0%-236704.4%before 199332OVERFIT
MMM-9.8%+31160.0%-31169.8%before 199332OVERFIT
MRK-1.0%+233375.1%-233376.1%before 199318INCONCLUSIVE
MSFT-9.3%+859506.0%-859515.2%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
NKE-1.9%+32003.7%-32005.6%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
NVDA-1.1%+587720.8%-587721.9%-8.8 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
PG-6.7%+59706.6%-59713.3%before 199346OVERFIT
SHW+3.9%+231766.6%-231762.6%before 199320OVERFIT
TRV-0.9%+12287.7%-12288.7%before 199330OVERFIT
UNH+2.4%+353381.4%-353378.9%before 199316OVERFIT
V-3.4%+2961.1%-2964.5%-12.3 pts16INCONCLUSIVE
WMT-14.5%+915365.3%-915379.9%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
ABNBn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+2.4%+147731.1%-147728.7%before 199320OVERFIT
ADI-1.3%+81534.0%-81535.4%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
ADP-0.7%+74205.9%-74206.6%before 199332OVERFIT
ADSK-1.9%+58084.6%-58086.5%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
AEP-1.1%+13797.6%-13798.7%before 199334OVERFIT
ALABn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY-10.7%+3338.4%-3349.2%-11.5 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
AMAT-2.9%+664974.8%-664977.7%before 19934INCONCLUSIVE
AMD+3.9%+14863.3%-14859.4%before 19932INCONCLUSIVE
APPn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMn/a · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML+3.1%+96277.5%-96274.4%-10.9 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
AVGO-1.0%+32512.1%-32513.1%-14.8 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
AXONn/a · no signals on this asset
BKNG+3.1%+922.2%-919.1%-8.5 pts12OVERFIT
BKR+2.5%+933.9%-931.3%before 19934INCONCLUSIVE
CCEP-6.8%+7081.8%-7088.7%before 199326OVERFIT
CDNS+10.1%+16839.0%-16828.9%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
CEGn/a · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA-9.8%+47049.9%-47059.7%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
COST-1.7%+12800.7%-12802.4%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
CPRT+3.2%+21554.9%-21551.7%-10.8 pts20OVERFIT
CRWDn/a · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX-4.5%+40426.1%-40430.6%before 199318INCONCLUSIVE
CTAS-0.1%+123411.3%-123411.4%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
DASHn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGn/a · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM+3.6%+3002.6%-2999.0%-11.1 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
EAn/a · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC-7.9%+17730.6%-17738.5%before 199338OVERFIT
FANG+0.1%+1406.8%-1406.7%-14.8 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
FAST-22.4%+262350.7%-262373.1%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
FERn/a · no signals on this asset
FTNT-2.4%+10184.6%-10187.0%-14.3 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCn/a · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD-10.8%+33594.8%-33605.6%before 199316OVERFIT
HONAn/a · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX+10.0%+58789.5%-58779.5%before 199322OVERFIT
INTC-0.0%+49216.9%-49216.9%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
INTU+2.8%+15430.2%-15427.4%-10.7 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
ISRG+1.9%+18484.9%-18482.9%-8.3 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
KDP-0.7%+1090.2%-1090.9%-11.8 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
KHC+0.8%-42.2%+43.0%-14.2 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC+3.6%+289399.1%-289395.5%before 19934INCONCLUSIVE
LIN-2.6%+10777.0%-10779.6%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
LITEn/a · no signals on this asset
LRCX-2.7%+159814.6%-159817.3%before 19936INCONCLUSIVE
MAR+1.4%+2539.5%-2538.1%-8.9 pts14OVERFIT
MCHP-1.8%+41961.5%-41963.3%-10.8 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
MDLZ+3.5%+461.4%-457.9%-9.3 pts14OVERFIT
MELI+1.4%+6911.0%-6909.6%-11.1 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
META-6.1%+1410.2%-1416.4%-15.7 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
MNST+3.3%+61968.9%-61965.6%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
MPWR+2.9%+15002.1%-14999.2%-10.9 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
MRVL-0.3%+1645.0%-1645.3%-8.5 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
MSTR+0.1%+1158.6%-1158.5%-9.0 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
MU+1.5%+70877.8%-70876.3%before 19934INCONCLUSIVE
NFLX+0.6%+67643.2%-67642.6%-10.3 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
NXPI-8.8%+1721.2%-1729.9%-15.3 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL+3.4%+36444.7%-36441.3%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
ORLY+5.4%+55255.7%-55250.3%-10.8 pts14INCONCLUSIVE
PANWn/a · no signals on this asset
PCAR+4.0%+57106.4%-57102.4%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
PDDn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP+5.1%+37760.7%-37755.6%before 199336OVERFIT
PLTRn/a · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPLn/a · no signals on this asset
QCOM-2.6%+50430.1%-50432.7%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
REGN-2.8%+3718.3%-3721.1%before 19932INCONCLUSIVE
ROP+2.1%+26003.6%-26001.5%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
ROST-4.7%+55801.1%-55805.8%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
SBUX-3.2%+43019.5%-43022.7%before 199320OVERFIT
SHOP-0.2%+8568.8%-8569.0%-13.9 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKn/a · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS-4.9%+5482.1%-5486.9%before 199324OVERFIT
STX-15.4%+15614.6%-15630.0%-12.1 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
TER+3.7%+31309.8%-31306.1%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
TMUS-2.1%+318.0%-320.1%-11.0 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
TRI-8.6%+578.4%-587.0%-11.0 pts18OVERFIT
TSLA-2.3%+23002.8%-23005.1%-15.3 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO+9.1%+5509.7%-5500.6%-9.8 pts16OVERFIT
TXN+4.4%+38040.6%-38036.2%before 199318OVERFIT
VRTX+1.6%+12000.4%-11998.9%before 19936INCONCLUSIVE
WBD+3.3%+302.2%-298.8%-11.0 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
WDAY+0.4%+305.5%-305.1%-14.8 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+0.8%+66202.2%-66201.4%before 19936INCONCLUSIVE
XEL-0.4%+7388.9%-7389.3%before 199346OVERFIT
A-4.6%+486.3%-490.9%-8.6 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
ABBV-0.1%+1156.0%-1156.1%-14.8 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
ABT+4.1%+62056.2%-62052.1%before 199322INCONCLUSIVE
ACGL-4.6%+4268.0%-4272.6%-10.7 pts32OVERFIT
ACN+0.5%+1726.5%-1726.0%-9.5 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
ADM+4.6%+9265.6%-9261.0%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
AEE-1.3%+813.9%-815.2%-9.4 pts16OVERFIT
AES+1.2%+647.5%-646.3%before 19936INCONCLUSIVE
AFL+2.4%+205848.4%-205846.0%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
AIG-4.3%+468.3%-472.6%before 199324INCONCLUSIVE
AIZ+3.2%+1585.5%-1582.3%-10.7 pts16OVERFIT
AJG-0.2%+41899.5%-41899.7%before 199332OVERFIT
AKAM+0.2%-25.2%+25.4%-8.5 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
ALB-0.8%+3091.3%-3092.1%-10.9 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
ALGN-9.3%+846.9%-856.2%-9.2 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
ALL+1.1%+3674.2%-3673.1%-10.8 pts20OVERFIT
ALLE+0.4%+265.9%-265.6%-13.9 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR-0.4%+100.6%-101.0%-15.0 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
AME+5.6%+25325.0%-25319.4%before 199328OVERFIT
AMP+0.4%+2154.1%-2153.7%-11.1 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
AMT+0.4%+1310.2%-1309.7%-9.1 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
ANETn/a · no signals on this asset
AON-2.9%+29815.0%-29818.0%before 199320OVERFIT
AOS+4.9%+13924.9%-13920.0%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
APA+0.4%+2417.2%-2416.8%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
APD+1.2%+20722.2%-20721.0%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
APH-2.8%+146951.6%-146954.4%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
APO-1.0%+1845.9%-1846.8%-14.1 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
APTV-2.5%+174.0%-176.4%-15.4 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
ARE+2.9%+624.3%-621.4%-9.6 pts14OVERFIT
ARESn/a · no signals on this asset
ATO-2.0%+13696.4%-13698.4%before 199328OVERFIT
AVB-0.8%+42.3%-43.1%-15.3 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
AVY+4.2%+8544.4%-8540.1%before 199318OVERFIT
AWK-1.6%+950.9%-952.5%-11.9 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
AZO+0.8%+40631.8%-40631.0%before 199320OVERFIT
BAC-0.1%+4053.1%-4053.2%before 19936INCONCLUSIVE
BALL-1.4%+49568.6%-49570.0%before 199324INCONCLUSIVE
BAX+0.7%+1778.4%-1777.7%before 199322OVERFIT
BBY+3.0%+89506.6%-89503.7%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
BDX-4.8%+21440.4%-21445.1%before 199342OVERFIT
BEN-8.7%+130378.8%-130387.5%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
BF-B+0.2%+14873.5%-14873.3%before 199324OVERFIT
BG-1.7%+1105.5%-1107.3%-9.6 pts10OVERFIT
BIIB+8.5%+6832.8%-6824.3%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
BLDR-0.4%+393.7%-394.1%-11.2 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
BLK-1.5%+13724.5%-13726.0%-8.8 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
BMY+0.2%+23662.6%-23662.4%before 199338OVERFIT
BNY-8.0%+32230.3%-32238.3%before 199334INCONCLUSIVE
BR+0.1%+1234.2%-1234.1%-11.0 pts18INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B-8.6%+2072.5%-2081.1%-10.7 pts34OVERFIT
BRO-2.1%+76212.8%-76214.8%before 199322OVERFIT
BSX+1.9%+1028.2%-1026.2%before 19936INCONCLUSIVE
BX-8.3%+1023.3%-1031.6%-11.3 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
BXP+2.0%+888.9%-886.9%-9.4 pts12OVERFIT
C-2.0%+1897.9%-1899.9%before 199324OVERFIT
CAH-1.1%+39284.8%-39285.9%before 199316OVERFIT
CARRn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY-5.5%+80461.2%-80466.7%before 199322OVERFIT
CB-4.7%+6587.6%-6592.3%-10.9 pts30OVERFIT
CBOE+3.7%+1060.1%-1056.3%-14.4 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE+0.3%+2283.8%-2283.5%-10.9 pts12OVERFIT
CCI+1.7%+899.9%-898.1%-9.0 pts14OVERFIT
CCL+0.2%+1154.4%-1154.1%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
CDW+0.2%+858.2%-857.9%-14.5 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
CF+0.3%+5815.9%-5815.7%-11.1 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
CFG+1.8%+349.9%-348.1%-13.7 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
CHD+9.4%+93736.5%-93727.1%before 199320OVERFIT
CHRW-1.9%+4307.6%-4309.5%-9.4 pts20OVERFIT
CHTR-0.2%+335.5%-335.7%-14.1 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
CI+0.6%+12980.8%-12980.2%before 199324INCONCLUSIVE
CIEN-1.6%+195.6%-197.2%-9.9 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
CINF-0.2%+41545.9%-41546.1%before 199330OVERFIT
CL-0.1%+20919.0%-20919.1%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
CLX-18.3%+6184.2%-6202.5%before 199358OVERFIT
CME-0.4%+6884.2%-6884.6%-11.4 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
CMG-0.0%+4221.6%-4221.6%-11.1 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
CMI-0.6%+28968.2%-28968.9%before 19936INCONCLUSIVE
CMS-4.1%+630.8%-634.9%before 199324OVERFIT
CNC-1.4%+4388.8%-4390.2%-10.1 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
CNP-1.4%+13998.0%-13999.4%before 199330OVERFIT
COF-11.1%+5724.6%-5735.6%-11.5 pts30OVERFIT
COHR-6.7%+68288.9%-68295.6%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
COINn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO-13.1%+879.8%-892.9%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
COP-3.8%+13561.7%-13565.5%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
COR-2.4%+17062.1%-17064.4%-11.0 pts12OVERFIT
CPAY-1.7%+1383.7%-1385.4%-14.4 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
CPT+0.9%+2453.9%-2453.0%-10.9 pts36OVERFIT
CRH-3.9%+7617.9%-7621.7%before 199324OVERFIT
CRL-5.8%+1210.2%-1216.0%-8.7 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
CSGP+6.5%+3390.6%-3384.1%-8.6 pts12OVERFIT
CTSH+5.6%+35498.3%-35492.7%-8.8 pts18OVERFIT
CTVAn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS-2.7%+15658.6%-15661.4%before 199322INCONCLUSIVE
D-3.0%+17762.4%-17765.4%before 199328OVERFIT
DALn/a · no signals on this asset
DD-6.2%+10113.6%-10119.8%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
DE-6.2%+101089.1%-101095.2%before 199326OVERFIT
DECK+4.4%+7024.7%-7020.3%-10.7 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
DELLn/a · no signals on this asset
DG-1.5%+550.3%-551.8%-14.4 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
DGX-0.6%+9626.0%-9626.6%-10.1 pts18OVERFIT
DHI+3.5%+13111.0%-13107.6%before 19936INCONCLUSIVE
DHR+0.1%+483557.2%-483557.2%before 199330OVERFIT
DLR-2.2%+3540.7%-3542.9%-11.3 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
DLTR+4.5%+10731.5%-10726.9%-10.9 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
DOC-1.1%+6136.8%-6138.0%before 199320INCONCLUSIVE
DOV+1.7%+29264.8%-29263.2%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
DOWn/a · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ-5.9%+5638.6%-5644.4%-11.4 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
DRI+0.8%+6998.7%-6997.9%-10.8 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
DTE-9.4%+35264.3%-35273.7%before 199340OVERFIT
DUK-1.6%+16239.0%-16240.6%before 199328INCONCLUSIVE
DVA+4.7%+4219.3%-4214.6%-10.5 pts24OVERFIT
DVN-4.2%+1411.9%-1416.2%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
EBAY+0.1%+14035.1%-14035.0%-9.3 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
ECHO-1.9%+227.3%-229.2%-11.5 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
ECL+3.3%+20174.1%-20170.8%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
ED-7.9%+45081.6%-45089.5%before 199332OVERFIT
EFX+1.7%+77234.4%-77232.6%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
EG-4.7%+2975.7%-2980.4%-10.7 pts20OVERFIT
EIX-0.7%+14610.5%-14611.2%before 199324INCONCLUSIVE
EL-2.1%+1551.3%-1553.5%-10.6 pts14INCONCLUSIVE
ELV-0.4%+2326.9%-2327.2%-10.3 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
EME+3.5%+59203.5%-59199.9%-11.1 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
EMR-0.8%+19839.1%-19839.9%before 199324OVERFIT
EOG-3.0%+9279.7%-9282.7%before 19934INCONCLUSIVE
EQIX-3.2%+240.5%-243.7%-8.6 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
EQR-1.7%+44.2%-45.9%-15.4 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
EQT-0.9%+19557.1%-19558.0%before 199332OVERFIT
ERIE-2.5%+3362.8%-3365.3%-10.7 pts18OVERFIT
ES-4.4%+2960.1%-2964.5%before 199324OVERFIT
ESS-1.0%+5274.8%-5275.8%-11.1 pts22OVERFIT
ETN-1.2%+116541.5%-116542.6%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
ETR+2.5%+19797.9%-19795.4%before 199324OVERFIT
EVRG-3.1%+5086.7%-5089.8%before 199334OVERFIT
EW+3.7%+6500.0%-6496.3%-8.1 pts14OVERFIT
EXEn/a · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD-3.1%+148324.6%-148327.8%before 199318INCONCLUSIVE
EXPE+0.5%+916.1%-915.6%-11.1 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
EXR+0.4%+2698.9%-2698.5%-11.3 pts12OVERFIT
F-1.3%+6752.4%-6753.7%before 199318INCONCLUSIVE
FCX-7.3%+1061.6%-1069.0%-10.9 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
FDS-2.2%+9088.9%-9091.1%-10.3 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
FDX-0.7%+53776.9%-53777.6%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
FDXFn/a · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE-3.8%+563.0%-566.9%-9.6 pts16OVERFIT
FFIV+2.5%+5374.0%-5371.5%-8.4 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
FICO-3.0%+94747.8%-94750.8%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
FIS-4.8%+363.8%-368.6%-9.7 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
FITB+0.9%+28280.0%-28279.2%before 199328OVERFIT
FIX-9.9%+11966.2%-11976.1%-9.9 pts16OVERFIT
FLEX+0.6%+7898.6%-7898.0%-10.9 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
FOXn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT+7.0%+24360.2%-24353.3%before 199338OVERFIT
FSLR+0.8%+716.1%-715.3%-10.9 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
FTV-7.4%+100.1%-107.5%-16.3 pts18INCONCLUSIVE
GD+9.2%+221689.9%-221680.7%before 199330OVERFIT
GDDY-3.3%+389.4%-392.7%-14.3 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
GE+4.8%+54356.2%-54351.4%before 199320INCONCLUSIVE
GEN-4.1%+12085.6%-12089.7%before 19934INCONCLUSIVE
GEVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS+4.6%+15015.5%-15011.0%before 199350OVERFIT
GL-0.4%+12680.6%-12680.9%before 199318INCONCLUSIVE
GLW-5.3%+19301.2%-19306.5%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
GM+4.3%+240.1%-235.8%-14.2 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC+0.2%+2091.1%-2090.9%-14.6 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
GPC-1.9%+12785.5%-12787.4%before 199322INCONCLUSIVE
GPN+8.1%+2567.9%-2559.8%-8.7 pts12OVERFIT
GRMN-0.5%+5377.3%-5377.8%-9.0 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
GWW-7.6%+55300.2%-55307.8%before 199334OVERFIT
HAL-10.1%+2860.8%-2870.8%before 199318INCONCLUSIVE
HAS-0.1%+201529.8%-201529.9%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
HBAN+9.1%+3799.5%-3790.4%before 199322OVERFIT
HCA+2.0%+1699.7%-1697.7%-14.0 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
HIG+4.0%+951.1%-947.1%-10.3 pts24OVERFIT
HII-1.0%+883.6%-884.7%-14.3 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
HLT+0.3%+659.1%-658.9%-14.1 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
HOODn/a · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE-4.5%+625.0%-629.5%-15.3 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ-5.1%+77945.5%-77950.6%before 199322INCONCLUSIVE
HRL-5.8%+19046.1%-19051.9%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
HSIC+2.5%+1913.1%-1910.6%-10.5 pts16OVERFIT
HST+1.7%+12843.9%-12842.2%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
HSY-7.5%+53964.6%-53972.1%before 199318INCONCLUSIVE
HUBB-0.3%+3853.5%-3853.8%-11.1 pts18OVERFIT
HUM-6.1%+20168.9%-20175.0%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
HWMn/a · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR+4.9%+1526.1%-1521.2%-10.5 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
ICE-2.1%+2307.9%-2309.9%-11.3 pts14OVERFIT
IEX-3.7%+12761.2%-12765.0%before 199324OVERFIT
IFF-3.2%+4754.9%-4758.2%before 199338OVERFIT
INCY-1.6%+6471.7%-6473.3%-11.0 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
INVHn/a · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP-2.9%+4590.1%-4593.1%before 199322INCONCLUSIVE
IQV-7.0%+520.3%-527.2%-14.8 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
IRn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM-2.0%+9911.6%-9913.6%-10.4 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
IT-2.4%+6431.0%-6433.4%-10.9 pts16INCONCLUSIVE
ITW-4.3%+51254.1%-51258.3%before 199326OVERFIT
IVZ-1.7%+1093.8%-1095.5%-10.8 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
J-2.5%+33544.7%-33547.2%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
JBHT+3.6%+24926.6%-24923.0%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
JBL+9.5%+41217.7%-41208.2%-10.6 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
JCI-3.1%+4376.5%-4379.6%before 199322OVERFIT
JKHY-5.9%+71288.2%-71294.2%before 199326OVERFIT
KEY-0.5%+1405.6%-1406.1%before 199318OVERFIT
KEYS-0.2%+1042.3%-1042.5%-14.4 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
KIM+1.5%+3036.5%-3035.0%before 199320OVERFIT
KKR+4.6%+1784.9%-1780.3%-14.5 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
KMB+4.4%+16039.9%-16035.5%before 199338OVERFIT
KMI+2.3%+117.5%-115.2%-13.8 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
KR+1.8%+182706.1%-182704.3%before 199318OVERFIT
KVUEn/a · history < 10y (3.3y)
L-0.2%+22398.8%-22399.1%before 199344OVERFIT
LDOS+3.2%+530.2%-527.0%-10.9 pts12OVERFIT
LEN-5.0%+29032.9%-29038.0%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
LH+1.6%+1408.2%-1406.6%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
LHX-2.4%+8519.5%-8521.9%before 19936INCONCLUSIVE
LII+0.1%+3122.4%-3122.3%-8.5 pts12OVERFIT
LLY-5.0%+129720.0%-129725.0%before 199320INCONCLUSIVE
LMT+1.1%+67444.7%-67443.6%before 199322OVERFIT
LNT-3.7%+9408.5%-9412.2%before 199330OVERFIT
LOW-7.6%+77328.4%-77336.0%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
LULU+1.1%+759.0%-757.9%-11.1 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
LUV-11.9%+24508.5%-24520.4%before 199316OVERFIT
LVS-2.5%+50.3%-52.8%-11.0 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
LYB+0.0%+648.8%-648.8%-14.1 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
LYVn/a · no signals on this asset
MA-3.4%+14066.9%-14070.4%-11.4 pts10OVERFIT
MAA-4.8%+3525.2%-3530.0%-11.0 pts24OVERFIT
MAS-3.3%+7423.1%-7426.4%before 199318OVERFIT
MCK-1.0%+6946.5%-6947.5%-11.2 pts18OVERFIT
MCO+0.9%+7753.9%-7753.1%-11.0 pts22OVERFIT
MDT+3.2%+51421.0%-51417.8%before 199324INCONCLUSIVE
MET+3.8%+1176.9%-1173.1%-8.2 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
MGM+0.6%+1501.4%-1500.8%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
MKC+0.7%+14401.8%-14401.2%before 199324OVERFIT
MLM+1.1%+3089.6%-3088.4%-10.8 pts16OVERFIT
MO+8.9%+2914781.4%-2914772.5%before 199330INCONCLUSIVE
MOS+0.7%+268.9%-268.2%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
MPC+0.1%+2972.8%-2972.7%-14.6 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAn/a · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH-2.3%+21192.9%-21195.2%before 199320OVERFIT
MS+0.2%+6159.1%-6158.9%-10.9 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
MSCIn/a · no signals on this asset
MSI-4.5%+79243.2%-79247.6%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
MTB-1.5%+105049.8%-105051.4%before 199322OVERFIT
MTD+1.5%+9346.3%-9344.9%-9.4 pts20OVERFIT
NCLH-1.0%-34.9%+33.9%-14.8 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ-7.4%+2371.2%-2378.6%-11.2 pts14OVERFIT
NDSN-4.1%+37769.3%-37773.4%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
NEE-0.9%+23772.9%-23773.7%before 199318OVERFIT
NEM-1.1%+2099.8%-2100.9%before 19934INCONCLUSIVE
NI+2.0%+5234.9%-5232.9%before 199342OVERFIT
NOC+0.7%+23369.3%-23368.5%before 199322INCONCLUSIVE
NOW+5.3%+2907.9%-2902.6%-14.6 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
NRG-3.5%+1442.6%-1446.1%-11.2 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
NSC-6.2%+24520.7%-24526.8%before 199326OVERFIT
NTAP+0.2%+19659.8%-19659.5%-10.5 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
NTRS-4.7%+53074.8%-53079.6%before 199320OVERFIT
NUE+9.8%+70209.1%-70199.3%before 199318INCONCLUSIVE
NVR+6.4%+61512.0%-61505.6%-10.7 pts22OVERFIT
NWS+0.6%+152.4%-151.8%-14.3 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA+0.3%+122.2%-122.0%-14.3 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
O-6.6%+5366.4%-5373.0%-11.3 pts34OVERFIT
OKE-4.6%+19101.6%-19106.2%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
OMC-4.2%+15677.5%-15681.7%before 199322OVERFIT
ON-2.8%+208.7%-211.5%-8.6 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
ORCL+1.4%+296729.4%-296728.0%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
OTISn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY-0.4%+3580.0%-3580.4%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
PCG+1.3%+1389.7%-1388.4%before 199326OVERFIT
PEG-10.6%+18884.4%-18895.0%before 199330OVERFIT
PFE-14.5%+20062.7%-20077.2%before 199322INCONCLUSIVE
PFG-5.9%+920.1%-926.0%-10.4 pts14OVERFIT
PGR-2.7%+819581.9%-819584.6%before 199330OVERFIT
PH-0.1%+41129.4%-41129.5%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
PHM-7.2%+95847.7%-95854.9%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
PLD-1.8%+1782.5%-1784.4%-9.4 pts12OVERFIT
PM-2.5%+785.7%-788.2%-12.4 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
PNC-2.0%+37937.9%-37939.9%before 199320OVERFIT
PNR-3.7%+11510.8%-11514.5%before 199324OVERFIT
PNW-8.6%+2247.6%-2256.1%before 199328OVERFIT
PODD-3.5%+831.5%-835.0%-11.0 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
PPG-3.9%+21327.4%-21331.3%before 199344OVERFIT
PPL-3.9%+7311.8%-7315.8%before 199326INCONCLUSIVE
PRUn/a · no signals on this asset
PSA-4.4%+13958.7%-13963.1%before 199336OVERFIT
PSKY+2.8%-34.8%+37.6%-11.0 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
PSX+1.0%+1071.7%-1070.6%-14.5 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
PTC-3.0%+8443.5%-8446.5%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
PWR+0.0%+8155.1%-8155.1%-9.2 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
Qn/a · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL+1.4%+4611.6%-4610.2%-10.9 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
REG+6.6%+2046.5%-2039.9%-10.6 pts18OVERFIT
RF-0.9%+7230.0%-7230.9%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
RJF-2.2%+52691.1%-52693.2%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
RL-6.4%+1376.9%-1383.3%-9.8 pts22OVERFIT
RMD+8.5%+43254.4%-43245.9%-10.5 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
ROK-5.3%+57325.7%-57331.0%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
ROL+2.2%+36503.9%-36501.7%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
RSG-8.6%+1977.7%-1986.3%-9.2 pts32OVERFIT
RTX+0.2%+231131.9%-231131.6%before 199338OVERFIT
RVTY-4.2%+25547.2%-25551.4%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
SBAC+8.9%+2259.6%-2250.7%-8.2 pts12OVERFIT
SCHW-0.3%+45501.9%-45502.2%before 19936INCONCLUSIVE
SJM+5.8%+1119.0%-1113.2%-10.9 pts12OVERFIT
SLB-3.6%+1125.4%-1129.0%before 199318OVERFIT
SMCI-0.1%+4155.7%-4155.8%-11.1 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
SNA+3.8%+12522.0%-12518.2%before 199334OVERFIT
SO-4.4%+32617.4%-32621.8%before 199344OVERFIT
SOLVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+0.4%+5330.6%-5330.1%-10.9 pts22OVERFIT
SPGI-3.5%+140503.3%-140506.8%before 199332OVERFIT
SRE-0.9%+1463.0%-1463.9%-8.9 pts22OVERFIT
STE+5.8%+15491.4%-15485.7%before 199324OVERFIT
STLD-1.8%+7831.8%-7833.6%-10.1 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
STT-8.8%+199686.1%-199694.9%before 199320OVERFIT
STZ+4.7%+10007.0%-10002.3%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
SWn/a · no signals on this asset
SWK-7.5%+5887.9%-5895.4%before 199326OVERFIT
SWKS+8.6%+1317.3%-1308.7%before 19936INCONCLUSIVE
SYF-3.1%+325.2%-328.3%-14.2 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+2.0%+430371.4%-430369.5%before 199332OVERFIT
SYY-9.2%+115885.9%-115895.1%before 199320OVERFIT
T-0.9%+10219.8%-10220.7%before 199328OVERFIT
TAP-0.9%+518.8%-519.6%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
TDG-1.3%+13285.3%-13286.6%-11.1 pts16OVERFIT
TDY-3.9%+7164.6%-7168.5%-8.6 pts22OVERFIT
TECH-1.4%+79246.8%-79248.2%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
TEL-0.9%+671.1%-672.0%-10.8 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
TFC-5.5%+10226.4%-10231.9%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
TGT-6.4%+90566.5%-90572.8%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
TJX+0.1%+36154.4%-36154.3%before 199314INCONCLUSIVE
TKO-0.6%+1638.9%-1639.5%-8.8 pts14OVERFIT
TMO+2.1%+36784.3%-36782.2%before 199318INCONCLUSIVE
TPL+5.1%+75277.1%-75272.0%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
TPR+9.5%+7766.6%-7757.1%-8.3 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
TRGPn/a · no signals on this asset
TRMB+2.1%+3366.4%-3364.3%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
TROW+3.4%+35932.6%-35929.2%before 199310INCONCLUSIVE
TSCO-1.0%+15199.0%-15200.0%-10.9 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
TSN-2.6%+4340.8%-4343.4%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
TT-1.7%+49748.2%-49749.8%before 199326OVERFIT
TTDn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT-4.1%+4901.2%-4905.4%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
TYL+9.8%+43359.1%-43349.2%before 199322OVERFIT
UAL+2.5%+240.6%-238.1%-11.1 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
UBERn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR-2.9%+14119.5%-14122.4%before 199318OVERFIT
UHS-1.9%+15293.2%-15295.2%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
ULTA-0.6%+1721.3%-1721.8%-11.0 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
UNP-0.2%+30311.4%-30311.5%before 199342OVERFIT
UPS-3.1%+233.2%-236.3%-8.6 pts16OVERFIT
URI-3.6%+7088.3%-7091.9%-9.5 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
USB-10.5%+44799.0%-44809.5%before 199326OVERFIT
VEEVn/a · no signals on this asset
VICIn/a · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO-4.3%+23394.0%-23398.3%before 19936INCONCLUSIVE
VLTOn/a · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC-4.8%+48759.3%-48764.1%before 199332OVERFIT
VRSK+3.8%+648.8%-645.0%-14.2 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN-1.6%+5322.0%-5323.6%-9.4 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
VRTn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR-0.4%+1496.8%-1497.2%-9.7 pts10INCONCLUSIVE
VTRS-7.5%+1568.8%-1576.3%before 19938INCONCLUSIVE
VZ-1.6%+4889.1%-4890.7%before 199330OVERFIT
WAB-0.6%+4137.7%-4138.4%-10.8 pts12OVERFIT
WAT-0.5%+10865.4%-10866.0%-10.5 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
WEC+4.8%+23656.8%-23652.0%before 199322OVERFIT
WELL-6.0%+58774.1%-58780.2%before 199318OVERFIT
WFC-3.0%+63452.2%-63455.2%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
WM+8.2%+8471.2%-8463.0%before 199320OVERFIT
WMB+0.7%+11974.1%-11973.4%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
WSM-1.7%+69865.8%-69867.5%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
WST-1.9%+79208.6%-79210.5%before 199316INCONCLUSIVE
WTW-1.1%+1181.6%-1182.7%-9.4 pts20OVERFIT
WY-3.2%+1781.4%-1784.6%before 199320INCONCLUSIVE
WYNN+0.4%+1217.6%-1217.1%-11.4 pts2INCONCLUSIVE
XOM-3.3%+183657.9%-183661.1%before 199332OVERFIT
XYL+3.0%+455.0%-452.0%-15.0 pts14INCONCLUSIVE
XYZn/a · no signals on this asset
YUM+1.2%+4282.5%-4281.2%-9.3 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
ZBH-1.5%+292.2%-293.7%-9.7 pts12INCONCLUSIVE
ZBRA-2.6%+8617.7%-8620.3%before 199312INCONCLUSIVE
ZTS+1.0%+179.3%-178.3%-14.6 pts4INCONCLUSIVE

Forex · 0 / 0

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
EUR/USDn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
GBP/USDn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
USD/JPYn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
USD/MXNn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
AUD/USDn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
USD/CADn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
USD/CHFn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
NZD/USDn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none

Crypto · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Bitcoin-0.7%+17075.3%-17076.0%-13.8 pts4INCONCLUSIVE
Ethern/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoinn/a · no signals on this asset
Solanan/a · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanon/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinn/a · history < 10y (8.8y)

And intraday?

5-minute to 4-hour bars, every asset from where intraday history exists (stocks 2016, forex 2003, crypto 2015), against holding that same asset. Difference versus buy-and-hold. No walk-forward (see protocol).

Asset5 min15 min1 hour4 hoursDaily
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.2%-1302.9%-1248.9%n/a
Solanan/an/an/an/an/a
Cardanon/an/an/an/an/a
Dogecoinn/an/an/an/an/a
EUR/USDn/an/an/an/an/a
GBP/USDn/an/an/an/an/a
USD/JPYn/an/an/an/an/a
AUD/USDn/an/an/an/an/a
USD/CADn/an/an/an/an/a
USD/CHFn/an/an/an/an/a
NZD/USDn/an/an/an/an/a
S&P 500 (SPY)-454.0%-453.9%-421.7%-360.5%-3078.0%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-705.1%-704.9%-653.3%-609.1%-1573.0%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-307.3%-306.4%-247.1%-214.4%-805.6%
Emergentes (EEM)-269.1%-267.1%-206.3%-172.4%-838.4%
Oro (GLD)-397.4%-397.0%-343.3%-301.7%-823.0%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-91.8%-90.5%-35.1%-4.2%-132.9%
AAPL-1349.6%-1344.9%-1274.1%-1249.7%-322821.1%
AMGN-379.1%-363.7%-305.4%-276.4%-187276.0%
AMZN-836.5%-828.7%-759.5%-736.0%-265198.6%
AXP-573.8%-568.2%-508.1%-473.1%-27022.9%
BA-166.5%-154.1%-79.6%-67.6%-108728.6%
CAT-1513.0%-1502.2%-1436.1%-1414.4%-172706.6%
CRM-339.5%-326.7%-255.2%-246.2%-5999.0%
CSCO-570.4%-563.8%-492.0%-475.5%-222947.8%
CVX-358.2%-350.1%-274.1%-261.6%-68043.7%
DIS-114.8%-102.8%-38.7%-17.2%-189842.9%
GOOGL-920.8%-914.6%-846.5%-825.9%-13532.2%
GS-723.2%-710.9%-647.8%-623.8%-2030.6%
HD-324.2%-316.1%-240.2%-233.7%-1985762.8%
HON-280.6%-273.1%-205.5%-184.3%-21057.2%
IBM-286.6%-280.8%-217.7%-188.7%-16206.5%
JNJ-357.5%-353.1%-300.8%-262.9%-445198.8%
JPM-742.2%-737.7%-666.3%-637.9%-34525.2%
KO-293.4%-291.0%-222.6%-195.0%-199343.6%
MCD-285.6%-281.9%-227.3%-188.2%-236704.4%
MMM-200.3%-192.7%-131.8%-99.7%-31169.8%
MRK-412.7%-404.7%-345.2%-312.4%-233376.1%
MSFT-1077.0%-1074.2%-1007.5%-975.7%-859515.2%
NKE-74.3%-60.2%+7.9%+24.1%-32005.6%
NVDA-27586.0%-27563.8%-27504.7%-27487.8%-587721.9%
PG-246.9%-242.6%-185.3%-147.5%-59713.3%
SHW-449.0%-443.1%-380.1%-352.6%-231762.6%
TRV-422.1%-416.0%-349.9%-323.3%-12288.7%
UNH-401.4%-393.5%-332.4%-298.6%-353378.9%
V-543.9%-539.6%-480.9%-448.4%-2964.5%
WMT-607.6%-602.7%-545.0%-502.4%-915379.9%
ABNBn/an/an/an/an/a
ADBE-317.0%-307.0%-240.8%-218.8%-147728.7%
ADI-814.6%-796.4%-732.9%-721.7%-81535.4%
ADP-441.3%-434.8%-374.6%-339.8%-74206.6%
ADSK-432.2%-415.7%-339.8%-333.8%-58086.5%
AEP-305.4%-301.1%-234.0%-211.6%-13798.7%
ALABn/an/an/an/an/a
ALNY-254.7%-212.8%-156.1%-154.9%-3349.2%
AMAT-2817.9%-2798.0%-2731.4%-2723.3%-664977.7%
AMD-16807.9%-16772.1%-16720.9%-16712.6%-14859.4%
APPn/an/an/an/an/a
ARMn/an/an/an/an/a
ASML-2158.7%-2149.2%-2081.5%-2058.8%-96274.4%
AVGO-3403.2%-3388.4%-3320.8%-3306.8%-32513.1%
AXON-3569.4%-3532.2%-3485.7%-3470.1%n/a
BKNG-421.6%-409.0%-346.4%-328.3%-919.1%
BKRn/an/an/an/a-931.3%
CCEP-415.8%-408.6%-337.9%-315.2%-7088.7%
CDNS-1658.0%-1648.9%-1589.9%-1559.8%-16828.9%
CEGn/an/an/an/an/a
CMCSA-135.8%-121.8%-64.2%-37.4%-47059.7%
COST-707.4%-703.6%-647.5%-610.2%-12802.4%
CPRT-700.6%-691.5%-617.0%-602.8%-21551.7%
CRWDn/an/an/an/an/a
CSX-696.6%-685.8%-623.7%-592.5%-40430.6%
CTAS-1031.2%-1027.3%-960.0%-929.0%-123411.4%
DASHn/an/an/an/an/a
DDOGn/an/an/an/an/a
DXCM-462.8%-434.3%-367.6%-373.2%-2999.0%
EAn/a
EXC-318.9%-309.9%-249.4%-222.2%-17738.5%
FANG-393.2%-353.8%-308.4%-300.3%-1406.7%
FAST-656.9%-644.9%-578.7%-553.9%-262373.1%
FERn/an/an/an/an/a
FTNT-2745.6%-2723.2%-2662.4%-2646.3%-10187.0%
GEHCn/an/an/an/an/a
GILD-214.0%-201.8%-125.6%-118.8%-33605.6%
HONAn/an/an/an/an/a
IDXX-780.4%-767.4%-704.2%-685.9%-58779.5%
INTC-333.0%-311.9%-245.0%-234.6%-49216.9%
INTU-414.2%-405.5%-336.8%-316.8%-15427.4%
ISRG-612.6%-603.0%-536.5%-510.1%-18482.9%
KHC-56.8%-41.2%+27.8%+40.0%+43.0%
KLAC-3063.6%-3044.7%-2985.3%-2964.2%-289395.5%
LINn/an/an/an/a-10779.6%
LITE-4007.9%-3963.2%-3907.9%-3911.4%n/a
LRCX-4481.4%-4459.8%-4395.9%-4385.0%-159817.3%
MAR-594.3%-582.1%-507.7%-492.3%-2538.1%
MCHP-391.6%-370.4%-305.6%-289.3%-41963.3%
MDLZ-182.0%-173.6%-115.8%-88.6%-457.9%
MELI-1800.1%-1767.3%-1701.1%-1705.1%-6909.6%
META-570.4%-562.7%-503.8%-473.0%-1416.4%
MNST-194.8%-179.2%-113.1%-95.1%-61965.6%
MPWR-2250.5%-2234.1%-2166.2%-2156.6%-14999.2%
MRVL-2679.8%-2649.3%-2599.6%-2577.2%-1645.3%
MSTR-738.2%-694.1%-653.9%-646.4%-1158.5%
MU-6675.8%-6648.1%-6589.8%-6578.2%-70876.3%
NFLX-743.2%-722.5%-657.4%-647.1%-67642.6%
NXPI-300.5%-291.1%-215.7%-206.4%-1729.9%
ODFL-1063.8%-1046.2%-972.9%-961.3%-36441.3%
ORLY-539.4%-531.0%-463.5%-443.7%-55250.3%
PANW-1299.9%-1281.4%-1195.6%-1209.6%n/a
PCAR-580.1%-572.0%-501.9%-485.5%-57102.4%
PDDn/an/an/an/an/a
PEP-196.8%-193.4%-130.6%-102.3%-37755.6%
PLTRn/an/an/an/an/a
PYPL-155.8%-137.2%-71.6%-54.7%n/a
QCOM-438.6%-420.8%-361.0%-340.3%-50432.7%
REGN-155.2%-135.7%-70.1%-58.7%-3721.1%
ROP-244.2%-239.2%-179.8%-147.6%-26001.5%
ROST-465.7%-456.9%-374.5%-361.2%-55805.8%
SBUX-232.0%-222.5%-160.2%-139.2%-43022.7%
SHOP-5944.8%-5912.1%-5848.2%-5850.3%-8569.0%
SNDKn/an/an/an/an/a
SNPS-985.3%-979.0%-917.1%-884.6%-5486.9%
STX-3652.5%-3624.4%-3559.6%-3561.7%-15630.0%
TER-1857.0%-1834.5%-1768.0%-1759.0%-31306.1%
TMUS-489.7%-482.3%-416.1%-397.7%-320.1%
TRI-362.7%-359.0%-296.4%-269.2%-587.0%
TSLA-2341.5%-2298.5%-2240.5%-2237.4%-23005.1%
TTWO-688.9%-672.4%-611.4%-594.1%-5500.6%
TXN-637.7%-630.2%-568.6%-538.4%-38036.2%
VRTX-440.8%-421.6%-361.6%-341.1%-11998.9%
WBDn/an/an/an/a-298.8%
WDAY-263.3%-241.2%-184.8%-163.4%-305.1%
WDC-1171.4%-1133.2%-1077.8%-1073.2%-66201.4%
XEL-295.9%-290.2%-221.8%-201.2%-7389.3%
KDP-278.1%-265.7%-204.6%-180.2%-1090.9%
USD/MXNn/an/an/an/an/a
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18084.8%-18076.1%-18005.6%-17076.0%
Ethern/a

4 / 440 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 440

What if I nudge the parameters? (on the index)

ParametersReturnSharpeMax DDVs. index
impulse 163.0%-7.33-1.5%-3078.0%
impulse 102.8%-7.10-2.9%-3078.2%
impulse 211.1%-7.29-2.2%-3080.0%
impulse 301.8%-8.32-1.5%-3079.3%

A rule that only works at the exact textbook numbers and dies one notch away is not an edge: it is luck.

Out of sample and robustness (on the index)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Deflated Sharpe: 0.00 (< 0.95)

Robustness suite: MODERATE

By halves: First half did not beat (+2.6% vs +237.3%); Second half did not beat (+0.4% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.

Deflated Sharpe 0.0 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Receipt

Computed on 2026-09-10 · period: each asset from its first bar (1962-01-01 to 2026-08-31) · round-trip costs: stocks and index 10 bps, forex 2 bps, crypto 30 bps · artifact 543c64263612 · Finaxion engine

Sources for the claim

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). ICT / Smart Money: the order block: works in few markets. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 543c64263612. https://finaxion.app/en/research/ict-order-block

Reproduce it with your own strategy