FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Smart Money / ICT / Wyckoff · Updated 2026-09-10

Smart Money: the liquidity sweep

Works in few markets

Its ground: stocks and indices, on 4-hour, on a single asset — it beats in 7 of 921 combinations.

Markets beaten
4 / 481
Vs. index
-11.4 pts/yr
Total return
-17.8%
Sharpe
-1.80
Max drawdown
-20.2%
Trades
116
10×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyBuy and hold

Detail on the index (S&P 500), which is the reference for the chart, the robustness suite and the neighbours.

What works and what does not in Smart Money: the liquidity sweep?

Smart Money: the liquidity sweep does not work consistently in any asset class; it does least badly on single stocks at 7 of 904 (1%), while on cryptocurrencies it beats in 0 of 14. Of the 4 daily markets where it beats, 2 hold out of sample (50%), and no neighbouring parameter beats the index, so the published setting is a point, not a region. The strategy improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 110 and on 4-hour bars in 2 of 110; its best daily market is TPR at -5.8 points a year over the S&P 500 across 26 years with 108 trades, and its worst daily market is Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones) at -18.2 points a year against the S&P 500.

  1. There is no asset class where Smart Money: the liquidity sweep works consistently; it does least badly on single stocks: 7 of 904 (1%).
  2. It does worst on cryptocurrencies: it beats in 0 of 14.
  3. Of the 4 daily markets where it beats, 2 hold out of sample (50%).
  4. No neighbouring parameter beats the index: the published setting is a point, not a region.
  5. It improves as the bar gets longer: on 5-minute bars it beats in 0 of 110; on 4-hour bars, in 2 of 110.
  6. Its best daily market is TPR: -5.8 points a year over the S&P 500 across 26 years, 108 trades.
  7. Its worst daily market is Cartera con balance: S&P 500 (máx. 25 posiciones): -18.2 points a year against the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 2544360d2bb7.

The promise

“The big players sweep the stops below the prior low and then push up. Buy right after the sweep.”

Exactly what we tested

Mechanical approximation: 25-bar low pierced with a close back above it on the same bar → entry; exit after 20 bars.

Why

In every market

Indices and ETFs · 0 / 6 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 6

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (SPY)-17.8%+3081.0%-3098.9%-11.4 pts116OVERFIT
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-16.7%+1565.8%-1582.5%-9.2 pts102OVERFIT
Russell 2000 (IWM)-2.5%+801.9%-804.4%-8.8 pts110OVERFIT
Emergentes (EEM)-32.2%+830.9%-863.2%-13.3 pts62OVERFIT
Oro (GLD)-6.1%+820.3%-826.4%-11.2 pts52OVERFIT
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-13.4%+131.2%-144.6%-11.9 pts70OVERFIT

Balanced portfolio: Dow 30 (max 10 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Dow 30 (cartera) (30 · max 10)-92.2%+3081.0%-3173.2%-18.2 pts2820

Balanced portfolio: Nasdaq-100 (max 20 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Nasdaq-100 (cartera) (98 · max 20)-80.8%+3081.0%-3161.8%-15.7 pts6792

Balanced portfolio: S&P 500 (max 25 positions) · 0 / 1 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 1

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
S&P 500 (cartera) (498 · max 25)-92.2%+3081.0%-3173.3%-18.2 pts36080

Stocks, one by one (Dow 30 + Nasdaq-100) · 4 / 470 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 216

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
AAPL-30.4%+322813.1%-322843.4%before 1993128OVERFIT
AMGN-5.1%+187272.6%-187277.7%before 1993122OVERFIT
AMZN-10.3%+265196.1%-265206.4%-10.1 pts92OVERFIT
AXP-43.0%+27029.4%-27072.4%before 1993186OVERFIT
BA-38.6%+108724.7%-108763.3%before 1993216OVERFIT
CAT+11.1%+172708.3%-172697.2%before 1993170OVERFIT
CRM-0.5%+5992.9%-5993.4%-11.0 pts74OVERFIT
CSCO-39.3%+222956.6%-222995.9%before 1993126OVERFIT
CVX+10.6%+68037.6%-68027.0%before 1993208OVERFIT
DIS+11.1%+189847.3%-189836.2%before 1993212OVERFIT
GOOGL-22.8%+13534.3%-13557.1%-12.4 pts66OVERFIT
GS-16.8%+2027.1%-2043.9%-9.1 pts106OVERFIT
HD+66.3%+1985758.9%-1985692.6%before 1993156OVERFIT
HON-7.5%+21058.8%-21066.3%before 1993190OVERFIT
IBM-27.1%+16203.8%-16231.0%before 1993202OVERFIT
JNJ-17.8%+445196.6%-445214.4%before 1993198OVERFIT
JPM-33.9%+34522.5%-34556.4%before 1993132OVERFIT
KO-21.9%+199349.6%-199371.5%before 1993216OVERFIT
MCD-21.2%+236707.0%-236728.2%before 1993176OVERFIT
MMM-43.5%+31160.0%-31203.5%before 1993244OVERFIT
MRK-22.2%+233375.1%-233397.3%before 1993194OVERFIT
MSFT-16.3%+859506.0%-859522.3%before 1993118OVERFIT
NKE+16.4%+32003.7%-31987.3%before 1993116OVERFIT
NVDA+56.4%+587720.8%-587664.4%-7.1 pts78OVERFIT
PG-4.0%+59706.6%-59710.6%before 1993222OVERFIT
SHW-3.0%+231766.6%-231769.5%before 1993170OVERFIT
TRV-30.7%+12287.7%-12318.4%before 1993168OVERFIT
UNH-4.2%+353381.4%-353385.5%before 1993108OVERFIT
V-22.0%+2961.1%-2983.1%-13.5 pts50INCONCLUSIVE
WMT+2.1%+915365.3%-915363.3%before 1993172OVERFIT
ABNBn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
ADBE+49.7%+147731.1%-147681.4%before 1993136OVERFIT
ADI-21.5%+81534.0%-81555.6%before 1993148OVERFIT
ADP-5.7%+74205.9%-74211.6%before 1993178OVERFIT
ADSK-15.6%+58084.6%-58100.2%before 1993124OVERFIT
AEP-24.4%+13797.6%-13822.0%before 1993218OVERFIT
ALABn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
ALNY-24.4%+3338.4%-3362.8%-12.3 pts74OVERFIT
AMAT-42.1%+664974.8%-665016.9%before 1993158OVERFIT
AMD-37.1%+14863.3%-14900.4%before 1993136OVERFIT
APPn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
ARMn/a · history < 10y (3.0y)
ASML-18.9%+96277.5%-96296.4%-11.7 pts70OVERFIT
AVGO+1.9%+32512.1%-32510.2%-14.6 pts42INCONCLUSIVE
AXON-11.9%+123065.2%-123077.2%-10.0 pts48OVERFIT
BKNG-42.3%+922.2%-964.5%-10.6 pts118OVERFIT
BKR-14.1%+933.9%-947.9%before 1993146OVERFIT
CCEP+11.4%+7081.8%-7070.4%before 1993134OVERFIT
CDNS-29.6%+16839.0%-16868.6%before 1993116OVERFIT
CEGn/a · history < 10y (4.6y)
CMCSA+31.2%+47049.9%-47018.7%before 1993162OVERFIT
COST-20.2%+12800.7%-12820.9%before 1993154OVERFIT
CPRT+4.4%+21554.9%-21550.6%-10.8 pts100OVERFIT
CRWDn/a · history < 10y (7.2y)
CSX-37.8%+40426.1%-40463.9%before 1993170OVERFIT
CTAS+4.8%+123411.3%-123406.5%before 1993150OVERFIT
DASHn/a · history < 10y (5.7y)
DDOGn/a · history < 10y (6.9y)
DXCM+12.6%+3002.6%-2989.9%-10.7 pts50OVERFIT
EAn/a · history < 10y (9.0y)
EXC-4.9%+17730.6%-17735.5%before 1993186OVERFIT
FANG-6.1%+1406.8%-1412.9%-15.3 pts46INCONCLUSIVE
FAST+47.3%+262350.7%-262303.4%before 1993160OVERFIT
FER-0.6%+593.7%-594.2%-14.8 pts6INCONCLUSIVE
FTNT-23.2%+10184.6%-10207.8%-15.8 pts44INCONCLUSIVE
GEHCn/a · history < 10y (3.7y)
GILD+17.9%+33594.8%-33576.8%before 1993108OVERFIT
HONAn/a · history < 10y (0.2y)
IDXX-33.0%+58789.5%-58822.5%before 1993114OVERFIT
INTC-31.8%+49216.9%-49248.7%before 1993164OVERFIT
INTU-3.0%+15430.2%-15433.2%-10.9 pts130OVERFIT
ISRG+4.8%+18484.9%-18480.1%-8.2 pts76OVERFIT
KDP-12.9%+1090.2%-1103.1%-12.5 pts64INCONCLUSIVE
KHC-10.8%-42.2%+31.4%-15.3 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
KLAC-16.1%+289399.1%-289415.2%before 1993172OVERFIT
LIN+1.2%+10777.0%-10775.8%before 1993108OVERFIT
LITE+20.7%+5280.9%-5260.2%-12.5 pts34INCONCLUSIVE
LRCX-11.1%+159814.6%-159825.7%before 1993166OVERFIT
MAR+13.2%+2539.5%-2526.3%-8.5 pts108OVERFIT
MCHP-4.2%+41961.5%-41965.7%-10.9 pts126OVERFIT
MDLZ-15.6%+461.4%-477.0%-10.1 pts84OVERFIT
MELI-15.4%+6911.0%-6926.4%-12.0 pts64INCONCLUSIVE
META-30.6%+1410.2%-1440.9%-17.8 pts44INCONCLUSIVE
MNST-24.5%+61968.9%-61993.4%before 199392OVERFIT
MPWR+39.3%+15002.1%-14962.8%-9.5 pts70OVERFIT
MRVL-2.3%+1645.0%-1647.4%-8.6 pts84OVERFIT
MSTR-30.9%+1158.6%-1189.5%-10.3 pts66OVERFIT
MU+51.1%+70877.8%-70826.7%before 1993148OVERFIT
NFLX-8.8%+67643.2%-67652.0%-10.7 pts66OVERFIT
NXPI-19.3%+1721.2%-1740.4%-16.0 pts60INCONCLUSIVE
ODFL-2.2%+36444.7%-36446.9%before 1993142OVERFIT
ORLY-14.2%+55255.7%-55269.9%-11.4 pts116OVERFIT
PANW+3.8%+4215.4%-4211.6%-14.7 pts30INCONCLUSIVE
PCAR+12.0%+57106.4%-57094.4%before 1993190OVERFIT
PDDn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
PEP-6.2%+37760.7%-37766.9%before 1993208OVERFIT
PLTRn/a · history < 10y (5.9y)
PYPL-10.7%+44.7%-55.4%-15.3 pts30INCONCLUSIVE
QCOM-27.3%+50430.1%-50457.4%before 1993112OVERFIT
REGN+2.5%+3718.3%-3715.8%before 1993120OVERFIT
ROP-24.5%+26003.6%-26028.1%before 1993124OVERFIT
ROST+20.9%+55801.1%-55780.2%before 1993168OVERFIT
SBUX-23.5%+43019.5%-43043.1%before 1993106OVERFIT
SHOP+3.0%+8568.8%-8565.8%-13.6 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
SNDKn/a · history < 10y (1.5y)
SNPS-27.9%+5482.1%-5510.0%before 1993126OVERFIT
STX-5.6%+15614.6%-15620.2%-11.7 pts78OVERFIT
TER-41.8%+31309.8%-31351.6%before 1993158OVERFIT
TMUS-22.0%+318.0%-340.0%-12.2 pts44INCONCLUSIVE
TRI-5.8%+578.4%-584.2%-10.9 pts104OVERFIT
TSLA+9.3%+23002.8%-22993.5%-14.6 pts40INCONCLUSIVE
TTWO+19.2%+5509.7%-5490.5%-9.5 pts80OVERFIT
TXN-31.9%+38040.6%-38072.5%before 1993182OVERFIT
VRTX+41.8%+12000.4%-11958.6%before 1993106OVERFIT
WBD+9.2%+302.2%-292.9%-10.7 pts92OVERFIT
WDAY-18.5%+305.5%-324.1%-16.3 pts46INCONCLUSIVE
WDC+31.8%+66202.2%-66170.4%before 1993138OVERFIT
XEL+4.7%+7388.9%-7384.2%before 1993158OVERFIT
A-13.5%+486.3%-499.8%-8.9 pts108OVERFIT
ABBV-0.8%+1156.0%-1156.8%-14.9 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
ABT+8.3%+62056.2%-62047.9%before 1993164OVERFIT
ACGL+4.4%+4268.0%-4263.6%-10.4 pts126OVERFIT
ACN-6.0%+1726.5%-1732.5%-9.8 pts70OVERFIT
ADM-18.6%+9265.6%-9284.3%before 1993146OVERFIT
AEE-2.1%+813.9%-816.0%-9.4 pts100OVERFIT
AES-24.2%+647.5%-671.6%before 199380OVERFIT
AFL-10.2%+205848.4%-205858.6%before 1993162OVERFIT
AIG+1.4%+468.3%-466.8%before 1993142OVERFIT
AIZ-19.6%+1585.5%-1605.1%-11.8 pts80OVERFIT
AJG-20.9%+41899.5%-41920.4%before 1993112OVERFIT
AKAM-22.7%-25.2%+2.4%-9.5 pts88OVERFIT
ALB-1.3%+3091.3%-3092.6%-10.9 pts86OVERFIT
ALGN-41.7%+846.9%-888.6%-11.0 pts74OVERFIT
ALL-20.0%+3674.2%-3694.2%-11.5 pts142OVERFIT
ALLE-9.9%+265.9%-275.8%-14.8 pts50INCONCLUSIVE
AMCR-14.0%+100.6%-114.6%-16.1 pts30INCONCLUSIVE
AME-29.9%+25325.0%-25355.0%before 1993166OVERFIT
AMP-12.5%+2154.1%-2166.6%-11.8 pts50OVERFIT
AMT+5.2%+1310.2%-1304.9%-8.9 pts102OVERFIT
ANET-19.5%+5592.8%-5612.3%-15.5 pts30INCONCLUSIVE
AON-13.7%+29815.0%-29828.8%before 1993160OVERFIT
AOS+9.7%+13924.9%-13915.2%before 1993146OVERFIT
APA-36.8%+2417.2%-2454.0%before 1993160OVERFIT
APD+16.0%+20722.2%-20706.2%before 1993142OVERFIT
APH-9.2%+146951.6%-146960.8%before 1993112OVERFIT
APO-0.2%+1845.9%-1846.1%-14.0 pts46INCONCLUSIVE
APTV+4.5%+174.0%-169.5%-14.9 pts50INCONCLUSIVE
ARE-17.5%+624.3%-641.8%-10.3 pts104OVERFIT
ARES-3.1%+1191.9%-1195.0%-14.2 pts44INCONCLUSIVE
ATO-13.0%+13696.4%-13709.3%before 1993150OVERFIT
AVB-15.0%+42.3%-57.3%-16.8 pts44INCONCLUSIVE
AVY-1.4%+8544.4%-8545.8%before 1993180OVERFIT
AWK-10.6%+950.9%-961.5%-12.4 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
AZO-10.8%+40631.8%-40642.5%before 1993106OVERFIT
BAC-20.5%+4053.1%-4073.7%before 1993132OVERFIT
BALL+12.6%+49568.6%-49555.9%before 1993176OVERFIT
BAX-28.7%+1778.4%-1807.2%before 1993150OVERFIT
BBY+29.6%+89506.6%-89477.0%before 1993130OVERFIT
BDX+4.5%+21440.4%-21435.9%before 1993204OVERFIT
BEN-38.9%+130378.8%-130417.7%before 1993164OVERFIT
BF-B-17.7%+14873.5%-14891.2%before 1993162OVERFIT
BG-12.2%+1105.5%-1117.8%-10.1 pts90OVERFIT
BIIB+17.4%+6832.8%-6815.4%before 1993104OVERFIT
BLDR-47.0%+393.7%-440.8%-14.1 pts98OVERFIT
BLK-20.1%+13724.5%-13744.6%-9.6 pts106OVERFIT
BMY-6.7%+23662.6%-23669.3%before 1993172OVERFIT
BNY-43.2%+32230.3%-32273.6%before 1993162OVERFIT
BR+39.4%+1234.2%-1194.8%-9.3 pts66INCONCLUSIVE
BRK-B+9.8%+2072.5%-2062.7%-10.1 pts104OVERFIT
BRO-9.6%+76212.8%-76222.3%before 1993138OVERFIT
BSX-20.4%+1028.2%-1048.6%before 199392OVERFIT
BX+8.2%+1023.3%-1015.2%-10.4 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
BXP-0.8%+888.9%-889.7%-9.5 pts112OVERFIT
C-46.8%+1897.9%-1944.8%before 1993164OVERFIT
CAH+13.1%+39284.8%-39271.7%before 1993154OVERFIT
CARRn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
CASY+30.6%+80461.2%-80430.6%before 1993144OVERFIT
CB-2.0%+6587.6%-6589.6%-10.9 pts150OVERFIT
CBOE+7.3%+1060.1%-1052.8%-14.2 pts50INCONCLUSIVE
CBRE-35.8%+2283.8%-2319.6%-12.9 pts72OVERFIT
CCI+17.1%+899.9%-882.8%-8.5 pts96OVERFIT
CCL-32.3%+1154.4%-1186.7%before 1993124OVERFIT
CDW-21.4%+858.2%-879.6%-16.3 pts60INCONCLUSIVE
CF-15.7%+5815.9%-5831.7%-11.9 pts92OVERFIT
CFG+2.8%+349.9%-347.1%-13.6 pts30INCONCLUSIVE
CHD-10.9%+93736.5%-93747.4%before 1993144OVERFIT
CHRW+0.3%+4307.6%-4307.3%-9.3 pts82OVERFIT
CHTR+20.2%+335.5%-315.4%-13.0 pts42INCONCLUSIVE
CI-19.1%+12980.8%-13000.0%before 1993106OVERFIT
CIEN-5.5%+195.6%-201.1%-10.0 pts66OVERFIT
CINF-18.9%+41545.9%-41564.8%before 1993140OVERFIT
CL+0.5%+20919.0%-20918.5%before 1993160OVERFIT
CLX-16.3%+6184.2%-6200.4%before 1993204OVERFIT
CME-10.7%+6884.2%-6894.9%-11.8 pts76OVERFIT
CMG+4.9%+4221.6%-4216.6%-10.9 pts70OVERFIT
CMI+23.6%+28968.2%-28944.7%before 1993168OVERFIT
CMS+2.8%+630.8%-628.0%before 1993160OVERFIT
CNC+14.9%+4388.8%-4373.9%-9.5 pts66OVERFIT
CNP-34.5%+13998.0%-14032.5%before 1993212OVERFIT
COF+4.7%+5724.6%-5719.9%-11.0 pts124OVERFIT
COHR+28.3%+68288.9%-68260.6%before 1993108OVERFIT
COINn/a · history < 10y (5.4y)
COO-29.6%+879.8%-909.4%before 1993130OVERFIT
COP+2.7%+13561.7%-13559.0%before 1993146OVERFIT
COR+8.8%+17062.1%-17053.2%-10.7 pts134OVERFIT
CPAY-21.5%+1383.7%-1405.2%-15.8 pts60INCONCLUSIVE
CPT-16.1%+2453.9%-2470.1%-11.5 pts108OVERFIT
CRH-18.8%+7617.9%-7636.7%before 199388OVERFIT
CRL+27.0%+1210.2%-1183.2%-7.6 pts68OVERFIT
CSGP-21.8%+3390.6%-3412.4%-9.7 pts94OVERFIT
CTSH-1.3%+35498.3%-35499.5%-9.0 pts76OVERFIT
CTVAn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
CVNAn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
CVS+22.4%+15658.6%-15636.2%before 1993178OVERFIT
D+16.0%+17762.4%-17746.5%before 1993144OVERFIT
DAL-5.7%+339.1%-344.8%-11.1 pts60INCONCLUSIVE
DD-2.3%+10113.6%-10116.0%before 1993200OVERFIT
DE-14.0%+101089.1%-101103.0%before 1993188OVERFIT
DECK+23.7%+7024.7%-7001.1%-10.2 pts92OVERFIT
DELL-4.4%+4059.8%-4064.2%-15.6 pts16INCONCLUSIVE
DG-6.4%+550.3%-556.6%-14.7 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
DGX-27.6%+9626.0%-9653.6%-11.2 pts90OVERFIT
DHI+31.5%+13111.0%-13079.5%before 1993108OVERFIT
DHR-28.0%+483557.2%-483585.2%before 1993136OVERFIT
DLR-18.6%+3540.7%-3559.4%-12.1 pts80OVERFIT
DLTR-38.9%+10731.5%-10770.4%-12.6 pts122OVERFIT
DOC+1.0%+6136.8%-6135.8%before 1993150OVERFIT
DOV-11.9%+29264.8%-29276.8%before 1993174OVERFIT
DOWn/a · history < 10y (7.4y)
DPZ-33.6%+5638.6%-5672.2%-12.9 pts76OVERFIT
DRI+44.1%+6998.7%-6954.6%-9.7 pts138OVERFIT
DTE+2.6%+35264.3%-35261.7%before 1993232OVERFIT
DUK-14.1%+16239.0%-16253.1%before 1993138OVERFIT
DVA-24.8%+4219.3%-4244.1%-11.5 pts78OVERFIT
DVN-14.6%+1411.9%-1426.6%before 1993140OVERFIT
EBAY-45.9%+14035.1%-14081.0%-11.5 pts104OVERFIT
ECHO-22.9%+227.3%-250.2%-12.7 pts82INCONCLUSIVE
ECL-37.4%+20174.1%-20211.5%before 1993136OVERFIT
ED-40.0%+45081.6%-45121.6%before 1993214OVERFIT
EFX+6.7%+77234.4%-77227.7%before 1993158OVERFIT
EG-13.5%+2975.7%-2989.3%-11.1 pts114OVERFIT
EIX-32.4%+14610.5%-14643.0%before 1993130OVERFIT
EL-40.6%+1551.3%-1592.0%-12.2 pts92OVERFIT
ELV-28.2%+2326.9%-2355.1%-11.6 pts72OVERFIT
EME-26.4%+59203.5%-59229.8%-12.2 pts84OVERFIT
EMR-10.5%+19839.1%-19849.6%before 1993190OVERFIT
EOG+4.7%+9279.7%-9275.0%before 1993118OVERFIT
EQIX-9.2%+240.5%-249.6%-8.8 pts84OVERFIT
EQR-17.7%+44.2%-61.9%-17.1 pts18INCONCLUSIVE
EQT+38.1%+19557.1%-19519.0%before 1993154OVERFIT
ERIE-28.3%+3362.8%-3391.2%-11.7 pts144OVERFIT
ES-30.5%+2960.1%-2990.6%before 1993188OVERFIT
ESS+5.8%+5274.8%-5269.0%-10.9 pts124OVERFIT
ETN-21.7%+116541.5%-116563.1%before 1993160OVERFIT
ETR-11.3%+19797.9%-19809.2%before 1993190OVERFIT
EVRG+20.1%+5086.7%-5066.6%before 1993134OVERFIT
EW+0.1%+6500.0%-6499.9%-8.2 pts68OVERFIT
EXEn/a · history < 10y (5.6y)
EXPD+10.3%+148324.6%-148314.3%before 1993146OVERFIT
EXPE-18.1%+916.1%-934.2%-12.0 pts66OVERFIT
EXR+2.9%+2698.9%-2696.0%-11.2 pts74OVERFIT
F-24.4%+6752.4%-6776.8%before 1993178OVERFIT
FCX-2.6%+1061.6%-1064.3%-10.8 pts94OVERFIT
FDS-8.6%+9088.9%-9097.6%-10.6 pts88OVERFIT
FDX-10.4%+53776.9%-53787.4%before 1993146OVERFIT
FDXFn/a · history < 10y (0.3y)
FE-23.5%+563.0%-586.6%-10.4 pts104OVERFIT
FFIV-40.6%+5374.0%-5414.6%-10.4 pts56OVERFIT
FICO-10.9%+94747.8%-94758.7%before 1993126OVERFIT
FIS-21.2%+363.8%-385.0%-10.4 pts76OVERFIT
FITB-47.3%+28280.0%-28327.3%before 1993150OVERFIT
FIX+22.9%+11966.2%-11943.4%-8.8 pts98OVERFIT
FLEX-8.4%+7898.6%-7907.0%-11.2 pts90OVERFIT
FOXn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FOXAn/a · history < 10y (7.5y)
FRT-8.4%+24360.2%-24368.6%before 1993180OVERFIT
FSLR-9.1%+716.1%-725.2%-11.5 pts64OVERFIT
FTV+6.8%+100.1%-93.4%-14.8 pts40INCONCLUSIVE
GD+7.5%+221689.9%-221682.4%before 1993194OVERFIT
GDDY-13.5%+389.4%-402.9%-15.3 pts38INCONCLUSIVE
GE+27.0%+54356.2%-54329.2%before 1993236OVERFIT
GEN-11.8%+12085.6%-12097.4%before 1993130OVERFIT
GEVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
GIS+2.3%+15015.5%-15013.2%before 1993138OVERFIT
GL-4.1%+12680.6%-12684.6%before 1993156OVERFIT
GLW+4.5%+19301.2%-19296.7%before 1993130OVERFIT
GM+8.2%+240.1%-231.9%-14.0 pts38INCONCLUSIVE
GNRC-14.8%+2091.1%-2105.9%-15.5 pts70INCONCLUSIVE
GPC+9.9%+12785.5%-12775.6%before 1993184OVERFIT
GPN+41.9%+2567.9%-2526.0%-7.6 pts76OVERFIT
GRMN+1.4%+5377.3%-5376.0%-8.9 pts94OVERFIT
GWW+6.3%+55300.2%-55293.9%before 1993196OVERFIT
HAL+25.4%+2860.8%-2835.3%before 1993156OVERFIT
HAS-1.5%+201529.8%-201531.2%before 1993162OVERFIT
HBAN-16.3%+3799.5%-3815.8%before 1993158OVERFIT
HCA+17.7%+1699.7%-1682.0%-13.1 pts50INCONCLUSIVE
HIG+9.2%+951.1%-941.8%-10.1 pts96OVERFIT
HII+19.2%+883.6%-864.5%-13.1 pts42INCONCLUSIVE
HLT-16.1%+659.1%-675.2%-15.5 pts44INCONCLUSIVE
HOODn/a · history < 10y (5.1y)
HPE+34.4%+625.0%-590.6%-12.1 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
HPQ-11.6%+77945.5%-77957.1%before 1993230OVERFIT
HRL+5.4%+19046.1%-19040.7%before 1993160OVERFIT
HSIC+35.2%+1913.1%-1877.9%-9.6 pts98OVERFIT
HST-38.1%+12843.9%-12882.0%before 1993168OVERFIT
HSY-1.3%+53964.6%-53965.8%before 1993158OVERFIT
HUBB-12.9%+3853.5%-3866.4%-11.5 pts128OVERFIT
HUM+29.5%+20168.9%-20139.4%before 1993118OVERFIT
HWMn/a · history < 10y (9.8y)
IBKR-13.6%+1526.1%-1539.7%-11.5 pts66INCONCLUSIVE
ICE-33.3%+2307.9%-2341.2%-13.1 pts72OVERFIT
IEX+3.3%+12761.2%-12757.9%before 1993148OVERFIT
IFF-33.5%+4754.9%-4788.5%before 1993174OVERFIT
INCY-41.8%+6471.7%-6513.5%-12.6 pts112OVERFIT
INVHn/a · history < 10y (9.6y)
IP+8.7%+4590.1%-4581.5%before 1993224OVERFIT
IQV-1.8%+520.3%-522.0%-14.4 pts40INCONCLUSIVE
IRn/a · history < 10y (9.3y)
IRM+5.1%+9911.6%-9906.5%-10.2 pts108OVERFIT
IT-57.5%+6431.0%-6488.5%-13.4 pts98OVERFIT
ITW+11.2%+51254.1%-51242.8%before 1993208OVERFIT
IVZ+2.4%+1093.8%-1091.5%-10.6 pts90OVERFIT
J-7.1%+33544.7%-33551.8%before 1993170OVERFIT
JBHT+8.4%+24926.6%-24918.2%before 1993162OVERFIT
JBL+0.5%+41217.7%-41217.2%-10.9 pts96OVERFIT
JCI+17.5%+4376.5%-4359.0%before 1993114OVERFIT
JKHY-17.1%+71288.2%-71305.3%before 1993190OVERFIT
KEY+3.2%+1405.6%-1402.4%before 1993160OVERFIT
KEYS+2.4%+1042.3%-1039.9%-14.1 pts52INCONCLUSIVE
KIM-2.8%+3036.5%-3039.3%before 199396OVERFIT
KKR-15.4%+1784.9%-1800.3%-15.9 pts46INCONCLUSIVE
KMB-36.3%+16039.9%-16076.2%before 1993164OVERFIT
KMI-11.6%+117.5%-129.1%-14.7 pts54INCONCLUSIVE
KR-14.9%+182706.1%-182720.9%before 1993208OVERFIT
KVUEn/a · history < 10y (3.3y)
L-12.2%+22398.8%-22411.0%before 1993136OVERFIT
LDOS-2.7%+530.2%-533.0%-11.2 pts90OVERFIT
LEN+11.9%+29032.9%-29021.0%before 1993154OVERFIT
LH+7.3%+1408.2%-1401.0%before 1993106OVERFIT
LHX+25.2%+8519.5%-8494.4%before 1993132OVERFIT
LII-14.5%+3122.4%-3136.9%-9.1 pts106OVERFIT
LLY-24.9%+129720.0%-129744.9%before 1993176OVERFIT
LMT-12.3%+67444.7%-67456.9%before 1993204OVERFIT
LNT-17.8%+9408.5%-9426.2%before 1993154OVERFIT
LOW+0.2%+77328.4%-77328.2%before 1993154OVERFIT
LULU+43.9%+759.0%-715.1%-9.2 pts72INCONCLUSIVE
LUV-8.5%+24508.5%-24517.0%before 1993170OVERFIT
LVS-20.8%+50.3%-71.2%-12.0 pts72OVERFIT
LYB-20.3%+648.8%-669.2%-15.4 pts70INCONCLUSIVE
LYV+5.8%+1558.0%-1552.1%-10.8 pts72OVERFIT
MA-29.8%+14066.9%-14096.7%-13.0 pts74OVERFIT
MAA-38.3%+3525.2%-3563.5%-12.3 pts114OVERFIT
MAS-7.3%+7423.1%-7430.4%before 1993200OVERFIT
MCK+16.0%+6946.5%-6930.5%-10.7 pts96OVERFIT
MCO+13.0%+7753.9%-7741.0%-10.7 pts104OVERFIT
MDT+7.1%+51421.0%-51413.9%before 1993140OVERFIT
MET-4.9%+1176.9%-1181.8%-8.5 pts84OVERFIT
MGM+51.9%+1501.4%-1449.5%before 1993124OVERFIT
MKC+11.3%+14401.8%-14390.6%before 1993146OVERFIT
MLM+14.6%+3089.6%-3075.0%-10.5 pts160OVERFIT
MO-30.0%+2914781.4%-2914811.4%before 1993156OVERFIT
MOS-19.4%+268.9%-288.3%before 1993128OVERFIT
MPC-7.9%+2972.8%-2980.7%-15.1 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
MRNAn/a · history < 10y (7.7y)
MRSH+1.2%+21192.9%-21191.6%before 1993180OVERFIT
MS+9.6%+6159.1%-6149.6%-10.6 pts108OVERFIT
MSCI+23.9%+2406.7%-2382.9%-10.1 pts50INCONCLUSIVE
MSI-23.1%+79243.2%-79266.2%before 1993222OVERFIT
MTB-1.6%+105049.8%-105051.5%before 1993124OVERFIT
MTD-9.7%+9346.3%-9356.0%-9.8 pts72OVERFIT
NCLH-12.5%-34.9%+22.4%-15.7 pts40INCONCLUSIVE
NDAQ-34.7%+2371.2%-2405.9%-12.7 pts88OVERFIT
NDSN-42.8%+37769.3%-37812.1%before 1993160OVERFIT
NEE+0.9%+23772.9%-23772.0%before 1993154OVERFIT
NEM+6.3%+2099.8%-2093.5%before 1993170OVERFIT
NI-18.0%+5234.9%-5252.9%before 1993204OVERFIT
NOC-6.2%+23369.3%-23375.5%before 1993120OVERFIT
NOW-15.2%+2907.9%-2923.1%-16.1 pts42INCONCLUSIVE
NRG-7.2%+1442.6%-1449.8%-11.4 pts68OVERFIT
NSC+4.5%+24520.7%-24516.2%before 1993136OVERFIT
NTAP+7.4%+19659.8%-19652.4%-10.3 pts122OVERFIT
NTRS-24.0%+53074.8%-53098.9%before 1993140OVERFIT
NUE-38.0%+70209.1%-70247.1%before 1993130OVERFIT
NVR-10.9%+61512.0%-61522.9%-11.2 pts108OVERFIT
NWS+13.8%+152.4%-138.5%-13.4 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
NWSA-5.7%+122.2%-127.9%-14.8 pts54INCONCLUSIVE
O-10.0%+5366.4%-5376.4%-11.4 pts80OVERFIT
OKE-5.8%+19101.6%-19107.4%before 1993142OVERFIT
OMC+9.0%+15677.5%-15668.5%before 1993160OVERFIT
ON+4.7%+208.7%-204.0%-8.3 pts78OVERFIT
ORCL-6.9%+296729.4%-296736.3%before 1993144OVERFIT
OTISn/a · history < 10y (6.5y)
OXY-35.1%+3580.0%-3615.1%before 1993152OVERFIT
PCG-26.0%+1389.7%-1415.7%before 1993218OVERFIT
PEG+0.2%+18884.4%-18884.2%before 1993150OVERFIT
PFE+1.9%+20062.7%-20060.8%before 1993190OVERFIT
PFG-18.4%+920.1%-938.5%-10.9 pts68OVERFIT
PGR-20.2%+819581.9%-819602.2%before 1993152OVERFIT
PH+7.2%+41129.4%-41122.2%before 1993126OVERFIT
PHM+38.1%+95847.7%-95809.6%before 1993158OVERFIT
PLD-9.9%+1782.5%-1792.4%-9.7 pts98OVERFIT
PM+1.9%+785.7%-783.8%-12.1 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
PNC-36.3%+37937.9%-37974.2%before 1993152OVERFIT
PNR-16.1%+11510.8%-11526.9%before 1993156OVERFIT
PNW-16.2%+2247.6%-2263.8%before 1993166OVERFIT
PODD+4.1%+831.5%-827.4%-10.6 pts74INCONCLUSIVE
PPG+25.0%+21327.4%-21302.5%before 1993132OVERFIT
PPL-4.9%+7311.8%-7316.8%before 1993124OVERFIT
PRU-14.1%+767.8%-781.8%-10.7 pts74OVERFIT
PSA-39.5%+13958.7%-13998.2%before 1993204OVERFIT
PSKY-15.4%-34.8%+19.4%-11.9 pts74OVERFIT
PSX+3.6%+1071.7%-1068.1%-14.3 pts40INCONCLUSIVE
PTC-3.8%+8443.5%-8447.3%before 1993146OVERFIT
PWR-9.3%+8155.1%-8164.4%-9.5 pts86OVERFIT
Qn/a · history < 10y (0.8y)
RCL-36.1%+4611.6%-4647.7%-12.3 pts122OVERFIT
REG+7.7%+2046.5%-2038.8%-10.6 pts94OVERFIT
RF-25.0%+7230.0%-7255.0%before 1993140OVERFIT
RJF-5.9%+52691.1%-52697.0%before 1993150OVERFIT
RL-32.9%+1376.9%-1409.8%-10.9 pts140OVERFIT
RMD-2.6%+43254.4%-43257.0%-10.9 pts86OVERFIT
ROK+10.7%+57325.7%-57315.0%before 1993150OVERFIT
ROL-11.4%+36503.9%-36515.3%before 1993172OVERFIT
RSG-26.0%+1977.7%-2003.7%-9.9 pts98OVERFIT
RTX-45.4%+231131.9%-231177.3%before 1993246OVERFIT
RVTY-13.5%+25547.2%-25560.7%before 1993180OVERFIT
SBAC+4.7%+2259.6%-2255.0%-8.3 pts86OVERFIT
SCHW-40.0%+45501.9%-45541.8%before 1993160OVERFIT
SJM+37.7%+1119.0%-1081.3%-10.1 pts138OVERFIT
SLB-5.3%+1125.4%-1130.7%before 1993174OVERFIT
SMCI+19.2%+4155.7%-4136.5%-10.2 pts58INCONCLUSIVE
SNA-5.3%+12522.0%-12527.4%before 1993180OVERFIT
SO-20.0%+32617.4%-32637.4%before 1993148OVERFIT
SOLVn/a · history < 10y (2.4y)
SPG+34.7%+5330.6%-5295.9%-10.0 pts102OVERFIT
SPGI-25.3%+140503.3%-140528.6%before 1993174OVERFIT
SRE+9.4%+1463.0%-1453.5%-8.5 pts74OVERFIT
STE+28.5%+15491.4%-15462.9%before 1993128OVERFIT
STLD-35.9%+7831.8%-7867.7%-11.5 pts90OVERFIT
STT-21.6%+199686.1%-199707.7%before 1993152OVERFIT
STZ-13.2%+10007.0%-10020.1%before 1993116OVERFIT
SW+3.2%+775.0%-771.7%-11.8 pts8INCONCLUSIVE
SWK-22.0%+5887.9%-5910.0%before 1993162OVERFIT
SWKS-52.1%+1317.3%-1369.3%before 1993154OVERFIT
SYF-13.6%+325.2%-338.8%-15.2 pts26INCONCLUSIVE
SYK+11.0%+430371.4%-430360.4%before 1993112OVERFIT
SYY-29.4%+115885.9%-115915.3%before 1993166OVERFIT
T+5.6%+10219.8%-10214.1%before 1993118OVERFIT
TAP-30.7%+518.8%-549.5%before 1993150OVERFIT
TDG+7.6%+13285.3%-13277.7%-10.7 pts56OVERFIT
TDY+6.1%+7164.6%-7158.5%-8.2 pts92OVERFIT
TECH-20.2%+79246.8%-79267.0%before 1993126OVERFIT
TEL+2.3%+671.1%-668.8%-10.7 pts70INCONCLUSIVE
TFC-14.6%+10226.4%-10241.0%before 1993166OVERFIT
TGT-26.7%+90566.5%-90593.2%before 1993182OVERFIT
TJX+78.7%+36154.4%-36075.7%before 1993156OVERFIT
TKO-3.7%+1638.9%-1642.6%-8.9 pts108OVERFIT
TMO-29.6%+36784.3%-36813.8%before 1993170OVERFIT
TPL-2.9%+75277.1%-75280.1%before 1993154OVERFIT
TPR+105.8%+7766.6%-7660.8%-5.8 pts108OVERFIT
TRGP+10.9%+2202.9%-2192.0%-13.7 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
TRMB-2.5%+3366.4%-3368.9%before 1993128OVERFIT
TROW+13.3%+35932.6%-35919.3%before 1993172OVERFIT
TSCO+2.4%+15199.0%-15196.6%-10.8 pts114OVERFIT
TSN-35.5%+4340.8%-4376.3%before 1993124OVERFIT
TT-2.8%+49748.2%-49750.9%before 1993140OVERFIT
TTDn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
TXT+2.3%+4901.2%-4898.9%before 1993152OVERFIT
TYL-22.4%+43359.1%-43381.4%before 1993116OVERFIT
UAL-4.0%+240.6%-244.6%-11.4 pts66OVERFIT
UBERn/a · history < 10y (7.3y)
UDR-35.7%+14119.5%-14155.2%before 1993192OVERFIT
UHS+32.0%+15293.2%-15261.2%before 1993124OVERFIT
ULTA-22.7%+1721.3%-1744.0%-12.3 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
UNP-1.1%+30311.4%-30312.4%before 1993174OVERFIT
UPS+1.6%+233.2%-231.7%-8.4 pts94OVERFIT
URI+16.1%+7088.3%-7072.2%-8.9 pts82OVERFIT
USB+58.0%+44799.0%-44741.0%before 1993142OVERFIT
VEEV+7.5%+668.8%-661.3%-13.6 pts36INCONCLUSIVE
VICIn/a · history < 10y (8.7y)
VLO-4.8%+23394.0%-23398.8%before 1993140OVERFIT
VLTOn/a · history < 10y (2.9y)
VMC+7.7%+48759.3%-48751.6%before 1993192OVERFIT
VRSK+6.5%+648.8%-642.3%-14.1 pts56INCONCLUSIVE
VRSN-13.0%+5322.0%-5335.0%-9.8 pts98OVERFIT
VRTn/a · history < 10y (8.1y)
VSTn/a · history < 10y (9.9y)
VTR+5.6%+1496.8%-1491.3%-9.5 pts112OVERFIT
VTRS-21.3%+1568.8%-1590.1%before 1993136OVERFIT
VZ-4.0%+4889.1%-4893.1%before 1993138OVERFIT
WAB-40.2%+4137.7%-4177.9%-12.4 pts134OVERFIT
WAT-29.9%+10865.4%-10895.3%-11.7 pts78OVERFIT
WEC-4.0%+23656.8%-23660.8%before 1993160OVERFIT
WELL-27.7%+58774.1%-58801.8%before 1993154OVERFIT
WFC-23.2%+63452.2%-63475.5%before 1993160OVERFIT
WM+2.2%+8471.2%-8469.0%before 1993140OVERFIT
WMB+6.9%+11974.1%-11967.2%before 1993114OVERFIT
WSM-19.1%+69865.8%-69884.9%before 1993162OVERFIT
WST-36.9%+79208.6%-79245.5%before 1993158OVERFIT
WTW-19.5%+1181.6%-1201.2%-10.2 pts102OVERFIT
WY-15.4%+1781.4%-1796.8%before 1993218OVERFIT
WYNN+15.7%+1217.6%-1201.8%-10.8 pts62OVERFIT
XOM-36.7%+183657.9%-183694.6%before 1993240OVERFIT
XYL-3.5%+455.0%-458.5%-15.5 pts62INCONCLUSIVE
XYZ-5.2%+527.5%-532.7%-15.2 pts32INCONCLUSIVE
YUM-13.1%+4282.5%-4295.5%-9.8 pts108OVERFIT
ZBH+32.0%+292.2%-260.1%-8.5 pts84OVERFIT
ZBRA-5.9%+8617.7%-8623.6%before 1993104OVERFIT
ZTS-15.2%+179.3%-194.5%-15.8 pts56INCONCLUSIVE

Forex · 0 / 0

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
EUR/USDn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
GBP/USDn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
USD/JPYn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
USD/MXNn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
AUD/USDn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
USD/CADn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
USD/CHFn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none
NZD/USDn/a · indicator needs volume; forex has none

Crypto · 0 / 2 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 2

AssetReturnBuy and holdDifferenceVs. S&P 500 (CAGR/yr)TradesOut of sample
Bitcoin-19.9%+17075.3%-17095.2%-15.0 pts46INCONCLUSIVE
Ethern/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Litecoin+9.6%+859.3%-849.8%-13.2 pts24INCONCLUSIVE
Solanan/a · history < 10y (6.4y)
Cardanon/a · history < 10y (8.8y)
Dogecoinn/a · history < 10y (8.8y)

And intraday?

5-minute to 4-hour bars, every asset from where intraday history exists (stocks 2016, forex 2003, crypto 2015), against holding that same asset. Difference versus buy-and-hold. No walk-forward (see protocol).

Asset5 min15 min1 hour4 hoursDaily
Litecoin-1348.2%-1348.1%-1325.2%-1289.0%-849.8%
Solanan/an/an/an/an/a
Cardanon/an/an/an/an/a
Dogecoinn/an/an/an/an/a
EUR/USDn/an/an/an/an/a
GBP/USDn/an/an/an/an/a
USD/JPYn/an/an/an/an/a
AUD/USDn/an/an/an/an/a
USD/CADn/an/an/an/an/a
USD/CHFn/an/an/an/an/a
NZD/USDn/an/an/an/an/a
S&P 500 (SPY)-451.6%-422.4%-380.7%-356.7%-3098.9%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)-702.1%-671.8%-633.8%-614.3%-1582.5%
Russell 2000 (IWM)-305.1%-280.3%-233.6%-213.4%-804.4%
Emergentes (EEM)-255.6%-221.6%-184.6%-171.8%-863.2%
Oro (GLD)-390.9%-351.2%-309.1%-304.7%-826.4%
Bonos 20 años (TLT)-83.8%-48.4%-8.6%+1.9%-144.6%
AAPL-1347.4%-1320.7%-1274.5%-1259.6%-322843.4%
AMGN-377.2%-353.3%-300.0%-302.1%-187277.7%
AMZN-833.7%-807.2%-764.0%-735.5%-265206.4%
AXP-569.9%-540.1%-488.1%-481.4%-27072.4%
BA-163.5%-140.6%-86.0%-69.2%-108763.3%
CAT-1508.7%-1477.8%-1432.9%-1411.4%-172697.2%
CRM-335.9%-304.6%-272.6%-247.3%-5993.4%
CSCO-565.7%-543.8%-488.0%-480.6%-222995.9%
CVX-354.9%-317.4%-267.4%-266.0%-68027.0%
DIS-112.2%-87.2%-25.1%-29.5%-189836.2%
GOOGL-917.7%-890.4%-837.6%-841.8%-13557.1%
GS-719.8%-691.6%-644.7%-635.0%-2043.9%
HD-321.3%-293.8%-249.8%-231.7%-1985692.6%
HON-277.4%-245.1%-205.4%-187.2%-21066.3%
IBM-283.4%-256.2%-206.7%-197.2%-16231.0%
JNJ-355.1%-330.1%-285.1%-269.5%-445214.4%
JPM-739.5%-709.4%-658.0%-652.0%-34556.4%
KO-287.2%-260.1%-209.0%-199.5%-199371.5%
MCD-283.0%-256.1%-196.6%-183.0%-236728.2%
MMM-196.4%-162.2%-122.3%-127.2%-31203.5%
MRK-408.7%-384.3%-333.1%-322.0%-233397.3%
MSFT-1075.1%-1035.6%-999.4%-980.5%-859522.3%
NKE-70.3%-45.7%-0.7%-2.9%-31987.3%
NVDA-27578.1%-27530.3%-27510.8%-27489.1%-587664.4%
PG-243.5%-215.8%-153.4%-149.6%-59710.6%
SHW-446.2%-418.7%-365.5%-361.9%-231769.5%
TRV-418.6%-395.9%-339.7%-328.2%-12318.4%
UNH-399.2%-377.2%-331.5%-277.9%-353385.5%
V-540.6%-516.2%-465.1%-452.5%-2983.1%
WMT-601.8%-574.1%-518.7%-503.4%-915363.3%
ABNBn/an/an/an/an/a
ADBE-313.7%-287.8%-230.2%-218.2%-147681.4%
ADI-811.4%-771.7%-734.5%-729.4%-81555.6%
ADP-437.9%-411.1%-358.2%-351.3%-74211.6%
ADSK-430.3%-393.8%-365.2%-344.6%-58100.2%
AEP-300.6%-273.3%-225.8%-220.4%-13822.0%
ALABn/an/an/an/an/a
ALNY-252.9%-217.5%-195.7%-154.2%-3362.8%
AMAT-2813.2%-2764.1%-2733.0%-2720.6%-665016.9%
AMD-16805.6%-16780.6%-16717.0%-16711.2%-14900.4%
APPn/an/an/an/an/a
ARMn/an/an/an/an/a
ASML-2153.2%-2116.0%-2078.6%-2063.0%-96296.4%
AVGO-3394.9%-3351.8%-3324.1%-3297.2%-32510.2%
AXON-3565.9%-3545.7%-3471.3%-3491.5%-123077.2%
BKNG-414.7%-384.8%-340.7%-314.2%-964.5%
BKRn/an/an/an/a-947.9%
CCEP-408.8%-381.2%-334.9%-326.6%-7070.4%
CDNS-1654.9%-1627.6%-1581.7%-1570.0%-16868.6%
CEGn/an/an/an/an/a
CMCSA-130.8%-99.4%-54.6%-47.8%-47018.7%
COST-704.8%-679.4%-618.6%-610.6%-12820.9%
CPRT-693.1%-667.2%-622.7%-616.0%-21550.6%
CRWDn/an/an/an/an/a
CSX-689.6%-663.7%-622.1%-587.4%-40463.9%
CTAS-1024.7%-995.6%-951.3%-938.1%-123406.5%
DASHn/an/an/an/an/a
DDOGn/an/an/an/an/a
DXCM-458.6%-435.0%-380.2%-371.6%-2989.9%
EAn/a
EXC-311.3%-277.6%-245.6%-219.8%-17735.5%
FANG-389.6%-356.8%-307.5%-294.4%-1412.9%
FAST-646.4%-617.5%-587.8%-557.0%-262303.4%
FERn/an/an/an/a-594.2%
FTNT-2741.3%-2717.5%-2679.4%-2645.1%-10207.8%
GEHCn/an/an/an/an/a
GILD-211.0%-188.7%-132.3%-117.3%-33576.8%
HONAn/an/an/an/an/a
IDXX-776.9%-750.7%-704.9%-686.8%-58822.5%
INTC-329.3%-296.7%-257.6%-253.4%-49248.7%
INTU-410.9%-384.2%-327.9%-328.3%-15433.2%
ISRG-609.6%-588.1%-529.0%-525.5%-18480.1%
KHC-50.7%-23.3%+27.6%+31.4%+31.4%
KLAC-3055.5%-3008.9%-2978.9%-2962.0%-289415.2%
LINn/an/an/an/a-10775.8%
LITE-4002.5%-3979.0%-3936.2%-3937.0%-5260.2%
LRCX-4476.5%-4444.4%-4407.2%-4387.8%-159825.7%
MAR-590.2%-565.9%-503.9%-501.0%-2526.3%
MCHP-388.6%-366.4%-296.6%-293.4%-41965.7%
MDLZ-177.9%-155.7%-96.1%-95.8%-477.0%
MELI-1795.3%-1762.8%-1723.5%-1683.5%-6926.4%
META-567.2%-546.6%-494.2%-478.4%-1440.9%
MNST-179.5%-150.3%-108.1%-103.9%-61993.4%
MPWR-2246.7%-2209.1%-2176.5%-2160.5%-14962.8%
MRVL-2675.3%-2641.4%-2612.6%-2588.5%-1647.4%
MSTR-736.9%-713.8%-678.1%-644.6%-1189.5%
MU-6671.6%-6652.0%-6612.4%-6576.0%-70826.7%
NFLX-738.1%-718.6%-660.1%-633.6%-67652.0%
NXPI-297.2%-265.3%-203.7%-200.7%-1740.4%
ODFL-1059.0%-1034.2%-974.5%-975.0%-36446.9%
ORLY-532.9%-512.6%-464.0%-439.0%-55269.9%
PANW-1294.6%-1269.3%-1217.8%-1208.4%-4211.6%
PCAR-574.5%-546.6%-499.6%-474.2%-57094.4%
PDDn/an/an/an/an/a
PEP-193.9%-170.2%-113.6%-113.6%-37766.9%
PLTRn/an/an/an/an/a
PYPL-151.5%-123.4%-72.0%-63.1%-55.4%
QCOM-434.9%-400.3%-358.3%-328.4%-50457.4%
REGN-151.8%-127.8%-74.5%-55.3%-3715.8%
ROP-240.5%-213.2%-164.2%-145.4%-26028.1%
ROST-462.8%-428.3%-386.5%-378.3%-55780.2%
SBUX-228.8%-207.4%-154.3%-126.3%-43043.1%
SHOP-5939.7%-5902.8%-5845.1%-5835.4%-8565.8%
SNDKn/an/an/an/an/a
SNPS-982.0%-955.5%-894.0%-882.1%-5510.0%
STX-3648.4%-3623.7%-3563.2%-3556.7%-15620.2%
TER-1851.9%-1828.8%-1772.2%-1744.0%-31351.6%
TMUS-487.0%-463.2%-405.6%-412.1%-340.0%
TRI-355.8%-332.5%-280.4%-252.7%-584.2%
TSLA-2335.8%-2297.8%-2276.9%-2209.1%-22993.5%
TTWO-685.9%-664.3%-597.9%-605.8%-5490.5%
TXN-634.5%-607.5%-558.0%-543.9%-38072.5%
VRTX-438.3%-412.0%-354.1%-350.9%-11958.6%
WBDn/an/an/an/a-292.9%
WDAY-260.8%-234.1%-197.2%-179.7%-324.1%
WDC-1166.4%-1143.8%-1105.5%-1076.6%-66170.4%
XEL-289.4%-259.0%-220.2%-203.5%-7384.2%
KDP-267.2%-242.4%-185.5%-182.5%-1103.1%
USD/MXNn/an/an/an/an/a
Bitcoin-18084.8%-18084.8%-18069.9%-18011.4%-17095.2%
Ethern/a

3 / 440 · against the s&p 500 over the same window: 0 / 440

What if I nudge the parameters? (on the index)

ParametersReturnSharpeMax DDVs. index
lookback 25-17.8%-1.80-20.2%-3098.9%
lookback 10-32.5%-1.58-36.5%-3113.6%
lookback 40-1.9%-2.62-8.3%-3082.9%
lookback 605.5%-6.08-0.2%-3075.6%

A rule that only works at the exact textbook numbers and dies one notch away is not an edge: it is luck.

Out of sample and robustness (on the index)

Walk-forward: OVERFIT · 0%

Deflated Sharpe: 0.00 (< 0.95)

Robustness suite: FRAGILE

By halves: First half did not beat (-8.4% vs +237.3%); Second half did not beat (-10.3% vs +843.1%).

5 fold(s) scored; 0% within the robust degradation band [0.5, 1.5].

Mean OOS/IS Sharpe degradation = 0.

Deflated Sharpe 0.0 < 0.95 — edge does not clear the multiple-trials selection-bias hurdle.

Receipt

Computed on 2026-09-10 · period: each asset from its first bar (1962-01-01 to 2026-08-31) · round-trip costs: stocks and index 10 bps, forex 2 bps, crypto 30 bps · artifact 2544360d2bb7 · Finaxion engine

By market

Each market's page, ordered by annual excess over the S&P 500. The first 4 are shown; the rest are in the sitemap. See all 4 markets

Sources for the claim

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Smart Money: the liquidity sweep: works in few markets. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 2544360d2bb7. https://finaxion.app/en/research/liquidity-sweep

Reproduce it with your own strategy