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Finaxion Research · Parabolic SAR: follow the dots · cryptocurrencies · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Parabolic SAR: follow the dots work on BTC/USD?

Parabolic SAR: follow the dots does not beat buy-and-hold on BTC/USD: -33.5 points a year over 12 years.

Total return
×25
Buy and hold
×172
CAGR
20.4%
Sharpe
0.58
Max drawdown
-76.0%
Trades
325
Out of sample
—
Years
12
1×10×100×201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyBTC/USD

Findings

  1. Parabolic SAR: follow the dots does not beat buy-and-hold on BTC/USD: -33.5 points a year over 12 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +6.6 points a year.
  3. Total return ×25 versus ×172 for buy-and-hold, with 325 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -76.0%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2020).
  6. It ranks #7 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 566419a0cec8.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the SAR (0.02, 0.02, 0.2); exit when the close drops below the SAR.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding BTC/USD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on BTC/USD → · Full page for Parabolic SAR: follow the dots →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Parabolic SAR: follow the dots work on BTC/USD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 566419a0cec8. https://finaxion.app/en/research/parabolic-sar/btc-usd

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.