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Finaxion Research · Parabolic SAR: follow the dots · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Parabolic SAR: follow the dots work on STLD?

Parabolic SAR: follow the dots does not beat buy-and-hold on STLD: -12.4 points a year over 30 years.

Total return
168.2%
Buy and hold
×79
CAGR
3.4%
Sharpe
0.14
Max drawdown
-77.1%
Trades
684
Out of sample
overfit
Years
30
1×10×1997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategySTLD

Findings

  1. Parabolic SAR: follow the dots does not beat buy-and-hold on STLD: -12.4 points a year over 30 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -6.6 points a year.
  3. Total return +168.2% versus ×79 for buy-and-hold, with 684 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -77.1%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2011).
  7. It ranks #83 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 566419a0cec8.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the SAR (0.02, 0.02, 0.2); exit when the close drops below the SAR.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding STLD over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on STLD → · Full page for Parabolic SAR: follow the dots →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Parabolic SAR: follow the dots work on STLD?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 566419a0cec8. https://finaxion.app/en/research/parabolic-sar/stld

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.