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Finaxion Research · 2-day RSI (the Connors rule) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does 2-day RSI (the Connors rule) work on ARE?

2-day RSI (the Connors rule) does not beat buy-and-hold on ARE: -5.5 points a year over 29 years.

Total return
56.2%
Buy and hold
624.3%
CAGR
1.5%
Sharpe
-0.07
Max drawdown
-45.6%
Trades
658
Out of sample
overfit
Years
29
1×10×24×1998200120042007201020132016201920222025
StrategyARE

Findings

  1. 2-day RSI (the Connors rule) does not beat buy-and-hold on ARE: -5.5 points a year over 29 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -8.1 points a year.
  3. Total return +56.2% versus +624.3% for buy-and-hold, with 658 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -45.6%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2012).
  7. It ranks #121 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact c0e771fe25fb.

Exactly what was tested

RSI(2) crosses below 10 → entry. RSI(2) crosses above 65 → exit. Next-close execution. No trend filter (we test the rule as it circulates).

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ARE over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ARE → · Full page for 2-day RSI (the Connors rule) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does 2-day RSI (the Connors rule) work on ARE?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact c0e771fe25fb. https://finaxion.app/en/research/rsi-2-connors/are

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.