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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on ASML?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on ASML: -16.1 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
×12
Buy and hold
×964
CAGR
8.3%
Sharpe
0.29
Max drawdown
-72.5%
Trades
436
Out of sample
overfit
Years
31
1×10×100×997×19961999200220052008201120142017202020232026
StrategyASML

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on ASML: -16.1 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -2.7 points a year.
  3. Total return ×12 versus ×964 for buy-and-hold, with 436 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -72.5%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2010).
  7. It ranks #54 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ASML over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ASML → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on ASML?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/asml

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.