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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on BLDR?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on BLDR: -4.0 points a year over 21 years.

Total return
120.7%
Buy and hold
393.7%
CAGR
3.8%
Sharpe
0.23
Max drawdown
-95.5%
Trades
288
Out of sample
overfit
Years
21
0.1×1×10×20062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyBLDR

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on BLDR: -4.0 points a year over 21 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -7.3 points a year.
  3. Total return +120.7% versus +393.7% for buy-and-hold, with 288 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -95.5%.
  6. It beat before 2016 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #138 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding BLDR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on BLDR → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on BLDR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/bldr

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.