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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on FSLR?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on FSLR: -9.9 points a year over 20 years.

Total return
28.3%
Buy and hold
716.1%
CAGR
1.3%
Sharpe
0.14
Max drawdown
-93.0%
Trades
273
Out of sample
overfit
Years
20
1×10×12×2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyFSLR

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on FSLR: -9.9 points a year over 20 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -9.7 points a year.
  3. Total return +28.3% versus +716.1% for buy-and-hold, with 273 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -93.0%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2016).
  7. It ranks #176 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding FSLR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on FSLR → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on FSLR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/fslr

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.