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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on HLT?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on HLT: -8.0 points a year over 13 years.

Total return
206.6%
Buy and hold
659.1%
CAGR
9.2%
Sharpe
0.34
Max drawdown
-43.1%
Trades
174
Out of sample
—
Years
13
1×4.6×2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
StrategyHLT

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on HLT: -8.0 points a year over 13 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -4.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +206.6% versus +659.1% for buy-and-hold, with 174 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -43.1%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2020).
  6. It ranks #86 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding HLT over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on HLT → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on HLT?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/hlt

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.