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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on KMI?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on KMI: -7.0 points a year over 16 years.

Total return
-24.9%
Buy and hold
117.5%
CAGR
-1.8%
Sharpe
-0.16
Max drawdown
-76.3%
Trades
199
Out of sample
—
Years
16
1×1.3×2.2×20122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyKMI

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on KMI: -7.0 points a year over 16 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -15.7 points a year.
  3. Total return -24.9% versus +117.5% for buy-and-hold, with 199 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -76.3%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2018).
  6. It ranks #226 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding KMI over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on KMI → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on KMI?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/kmi

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.