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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on MCHP?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on MCHP: -0.8 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
×334
Buy and hold
×421
CAGR
19.0%
Sharpe
0.56
Max drawdown
-64.8%
Trades
489
Out of sample
partly
Years
33
1×10×100×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyMCHP

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on MCHP: -0.8 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +8.2 points a year.
  3. Total return ×334 versus ×421 for buy-and-hold, with 489 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -64.8%.
  6. It beat before 2009 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #3 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MCHP over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MCHP → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on MCHP?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/mchp

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.