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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on SMCI?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) beats buy-and-hold on SMCI by +1.4 points a year over 19 years.

Total return
×53
Buy and hold
×43
CAGR
22.7%
Sharpe
0.60
Max drawdown
-63.1%
Trades
262
Out of sample
—
Years
19
1×10×100×123×2008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategySMCI

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) beats buy-and-hold on SMCI by +1.4 points a year over 19 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +11.6 points a year.
  3. Total return ×53 versus ×43 for buy-and-hold, with 262 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -63.1%.
  5. It beat before 2016 and stopped afterwards.
  6. It ranks #1 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding SMCI over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on SMCI → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on SMCI?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/smci

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.