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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on SW?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on SW: -11.0 points a year over 18 years.

Total return
34.3%
Buy and hold
775.0%
CAGR
1.6%
Sharpe
0.04
Max drawdown
-73.2%
Trades
172
Out of sample
—
Years
18
1×200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategySW

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on SW: -11.0 points a year over 18 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -10.4 points a year.
  3. Total return +34.3% versus +775.0% for buy-and-hold, with 172 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -73.2%.
  5. It did not beat before 2017 and started afterwards.
  6. It ranks #184 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding SW over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on SW → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on SW?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/sw

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.