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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on TMUS?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on TMUS: -7.1 points a year over 19 years.

Total return
12.0%
Buy and hold
318.0%
CAGR
0.6%
Sharpe
0.03
Max drawdown
-78.6%
Trades
264
Out of sample
—
Years
19
1×6×2008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyTMUS

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on TMUS: -7.1 points a year over 19 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -10.3 points a year.
  3. Total return +12.0% versus +318.0% for buy-and-hold, with 264 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -78.6%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2016).
  6. It ranks #181 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding TMUS over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on TMUS → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on TMUS?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/tmus

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.