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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on ULTA?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on ULTA: -9.1 points a year over 19 years.

Total return
290.2%
Buy and hold
×18
CAGR
7.5%
Sharpe
0.27
Max drawdown
-72.5%
Trades
271
Out of sample
—
Years
19
1×10×2008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyULTA

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on ULTA: -9.1 points a year over 19 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -3.5 points a year.
  3. Total return +290.2% versus ×18 for buy-and-hold, with 271 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -72.5%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2017).
  6. It ranks #62 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ULTA over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ULTA → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on ULTA?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/ulta

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.