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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · forex pairs · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on USD/MXN?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on USD/MXN: -0.3 points a year over 23 years.

Total return
39.4%
Buy and hold
49.9%
CAGR
1.5%
Sharpe
-0.29
Max drawdown
-18.6%
Trades
315
Out of sample
overfit
Years
23
0.9×1×1.5×2.1×200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyUSD/MXN

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on USD/MXN: -0.3 points a year over 23 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -9.6 points a year.
  3. Total return +39.4% versus +49.9% for buy-and-hold, with 315 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -18.6%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2015).
  7. It ranks #174 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding USD/MXN over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on USD/MXN → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on USD/MXN?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/usdmxn

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.