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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on VRSK?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on VRSK: -9.1 points a year over 17 years.

Total return
80.5%
Buy and hold
648.8%
CAGR
3.6%
Sharpe
0.05
Max drawdown
-45.2%
Trades
217
Out of sample
—
Years
17
1×6.6×201020122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyVRSK

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on VRSK: -9.1 points a year over 17 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -10.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +80.5% versus +648.8% for buy-and-hold, with 217 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -45.2%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2018).
  6. It ranks #191 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding VRSK over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on VRSK → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on VRSK?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/vrsk

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.