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Finaxion Research · Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on XYL?

Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on XYL: -9.5 points a year over 15 years.

Total return
48.1%
Buy and hold
455.0%
CAGR
2.7%
Sharpe
0.01
Max drawdown
-39.9%
Trades
199
Out of sample
—
Years
15
1×4.2×7.5×20122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyXYL

Findings

  1. Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) does not beat buy-and-hold on XYL: -9.5 points a year over 15 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -12.6 points a year.
  3. Total return +48.1% versus +455.0% for buy-and-hold, with 199 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -39.9%.
  5. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2019).
  6. It ranks #213 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact f4bff284709b.

Exactly what was tested

%K(14) crosses above %D(3) in the oversold zone → entry. Held until %K exceeds 80 → exit.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding XYL over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on XYL → · Full page for Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Stochastic: oversold cross (14, 3) work on XYL?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact f4bff284709b. https://finaxion.app/en/research/stochastic-oscillator/xyl

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.