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Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on ALB?

Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on ALB: -3.9 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
909.5%
Buy and hold
×32
CAGR
7.4%
Sharpe
0.25
Max drawdown
-62.7%
Trades
252
Out of sample
partly
Years
33
1×10×19951998200120042007201020132016201920222025
StrategyALB

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on ALB: -3.9 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -3.5 points a year.
  3. Total return +909.5% versus ×32 for buy-and-hold, with 252 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -62.7%.
  6. It did not beat before 2010 and started afterwards.
  7. It ranks #119 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding ALB over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on ALB → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on ALB?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/alb

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.