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Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on APO?

Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on APO: -9.1 points a year over 15 years.

Total return
478.1%
Buy and hold
×19
CAGR
12.1%
Sharpe
0.42
Max drawdown
-54.8%
Trades
123
Out of sample
—
Years
15
1×10×24×20122014201620182020202220242026
StrategyAPO

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on APO: -9.1 points a year over 15 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -1.9 points a year.
  3. Total return +478.1% versus ×19 for buy-and-hold, with 123 trades.
  4. Maximum drawdown -54.8%.
  5. It beat before 2018 and stopped afterwards.
  6. It ranks #92 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding APO over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on APO → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on APO?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/apo

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.