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Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on DPZ?

Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on DPZ: -4.0 points a year over 22 years.

Total return
×27
Buy and hold
×57
CAGR
16.1%
Sharpe
0.56
Max drawdown
-40.1%
Trades
114
Out of sample
partly
Years
22
1×10×85×20052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyDPZ

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on DPZ: -4.0 points a year over 22 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +5.0 points a year.
  3. Total return ×27 versus ×57 for buy-and-hold, with 114 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -40.1%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2015).
  7. It ranks #25 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding DPZ over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on DPZ → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on DPZ?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/dpz

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.