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Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on FCX?

Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on FCX: -4.1 points a year over 31 years.

Total return
250.1%
Buy and hold
×12
CAGR
4.1%
Sharpe
0.16
Max drawdown
-67.9%
Trades
281
Out of sample
overfit
Years
31
1×10×19961999200220052008201120142017202020232026
StrategyFCX

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on FCX: -4.1 points a year over 31 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -6.6 points a year.
  3. Total return +250.1% versus ×12 for buy-and-hold, with 281 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -67.9%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2011).
  7. It ranks #157 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding FCX over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on FCX → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on FCX?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/fcx

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.