FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on FSLR?

Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on FSLR: -3.7 points a year over 20 years.

Total return
319.5%
Buy and hold
716.1%
CAGR
7.5%
Sharpe
0.28
Max drawdown
-70.5%
Trades
126
Out of sample
overfit
Years
20
1×10×12×2007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyFSLR

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on FSLR: -3.7 points a year over 20 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -3.5 points a year.
  3. Total return +319.5% versus +716.1% for buy-and-hold, with 126 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -70.5%.
  6. It beat before 2016 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #118 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding FSLR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on FSLR → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on FSLR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/fslr

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.