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Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on INTU?

Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on INTU: -10.3 points a year over 33 years.

Total return
601.0%
Buy and hold
×155
CAGR
6.0%
Sharpe
0.22
Max drawdown
-92.1%
Trades
264
Out of sample
partly
Years
33
1×10×100×333×19941997200020032006200920122015201820212024
StrategyINTU

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on INTU: -10.3 points a year over 33 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: -4.8 points a year.
  3. Total return +601.0% versus ×155 for buy-and-hold, with 264 trades.
  4. The result holds only partly out of sample.
  5. Maximum drawdown -92.1%.
  6. It beats in neither half of the history (split at 2009).
  7. It ranks #133 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding INTU over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on INTU → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on INTU?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/intu

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.