FINAXIONResearch
Finaxion Research · Only invest above the 200-day average · single stocks · Recomputed 2026-09-10

Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on MPWR?

Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on MPWR: -8.9 points a year over 22 years.

Total return
×30
Buy and hold
×151
CAGR
17.0%
Sharpe
0.51
Max drawdown
-63.1%
Trades
145
Out of sample
overfit
Years
22
1×10×100×192×20052007200920112013201520172019202120232025
StrategyMPWR

Findings

  1. Only invest above the 200-day average does not beat buy-and-hold on MPWR: -8.9 points a year over 22 years.
  2. Against the S&P 500 over the same window: +6.0 points a year.
  3. Total return ×30 versus ×151 for buy-and-hold, with 145 trades.
  4. The result does not hold out of sample: it is overfit.
  5. Maximum drawdown -63.1%.
  6. It beat before 2015 and stopped afterwards.
  7. It ranks #19 of 235 markets for this strategy by annual excess over the S&P 500.

Findings derived from the full panel. Each carries its number and its denominator; the computations are reproducible with artifact 7a691ad4255c.

Exactly what was tested

Long while the close is above the 200-day SMA; exit when the close crosses below it. Next-close execution.

How to read it

The verdict compares the strategy with buying and holding MPWR over the same window, with round-trip costs per asset class. “Out of sample” is walk-forward: the rule is fit on one stretch and judged on the next. A result that beats in the full sample but not out of it is overfit. Full methodology in the protocol. How we test.

Open this backtest with its trades   Trades (CSV)

Every strategy on MPWR → · Full page for Only invest above the 200-day average →

How to cite

Finaxion Research (2026). Does Only invest above the 200-day average work on MPWR?. Daily backtest 1962-01-01–2026-08-31, artifact 7a691ad4255c. https://finaxion.app/en/research/200-day-sma-filter/mpwr

Not a recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.